HTX 1.3 NLH river decision....
07-05-2019
, 03:48 PM
Interesting hand.
Pre: depending on UTG's stack and perceived range this might be a fold, or perhaps a 3bet. Flatting would be my least favorite option. UTG would need to have >150bb's to call imo.
Flop: JTx two tone is one of the most dynamic flops you can have, so if i'm betting, i'd prefer to bet bigger than 1/2 pot, maybe 100-120ish.
After we get raised i might just fold since even his (semi) bluff range has tons of equity and his value range has us in jail. Mind you this flop went 7(!) ways, so on average he rates to have a very strong hand.
Folding AJ on this flop is definitely not solver approved, but this deep against non-maniacs we are often gonna play a enormous pot with 1 pair against a strong range on an extremely dynamic runout. Occasionally he will 'bluff' us with KJ, ces't la vie.
Btw, x/calling this flop seems a reasonable option, for all the reasons stated above.
Turn: Definitely check in flow, if we bet and get raised we have to fold. Some worse hands will fold and if he raised Adxd or Qd9d on the flop, he might not want to flat now either. We have decent SDV and now have better equity value vs his drawing range as well, so let's get to showdown as cheap as possible.
River: i like how you categorized his range, now try and assign a # combo's to each of those categories. For instance:
1) QQ+; indeed not very likely because of pre, and he's highly unlikely to bet river with them. 0 combo's.
2) KQ; again, not likely but give him 2 combo's on average for safe measure.
3) JT; yes we block it, but still 4 combo's possible.
4) 22/TT/JJ; i'd discount these some because of turn check, but ime people tend to be MUBSY in big pots this deep. Give him like 3 combo's out of a possible 5.
5) Adxd and other missed draws; considering he called an UTG raise he probably doesn't have all AdXd, let's give him 4 of those. I'd also give him hands like Qd9d or 8d9d as possible random bluffs, so 6 total. Based on description, maybe he bets river with half of those hands(?), so another 3 combo's.
In summary, that gives us 3 combo's we can beat, and we lose to 9 combo's, which means we win 25% of the time. That means most we should be calling otr is a half pot bet (which would be 25% of the eventual pot), or $305. Villain bets more than that, so yeah, sigh fold i guess.
Off course i've made a bunch of random assumptions, and i've got no read or experience with villain, so YMMV. Hope you made the correct decision.
Pre: depending on UTG's stack and perceived range this might be a fold, or perhaps a 3bet. Flatting would be my least favorite option. UTG would need to have >150bb's to call imo.
Flop: JTx two tone is one of the most dynamic flops you can have, so if i'm betting, i'd prefer to bet bigger than 1/2 pot, maybe 100-120ish.
After we get raised i might just fold since even his (semi) bluff range has tons of equity and his value range has us in jail. Mind you this flop went 7(!) ways, so on average he rates to have a very strong hand.
Folding AJ on this flop is definitely not solver approved, but this deep against non-maniacs we are often gonna play a enormous pot with 1 pair against a strong range on an extremely dynamic runout. Occasionally he will 'bluff' us with KJ, ces't la vie.
Btw, x/calling this flop seems a reasonable option, for all the reasons stated above.
Turn: Definitely check in flow, if we bet and get raised we have to fold. Some worse hands will fold and if he raised Adxd or Qd9d on the flop, he might not want to flat now either. We have decent SDV and now have better equity value vs his drawing range as well, so let's get to showdown as cheap as possible.
River: i like how you categorized his range, now try and assign a # combo's to each of those categories. For instance:
1) QQ+; indeed not very likely because of pre, and he's highly unlikely to bet river with them. 0 combo's.
2) KQ; again, not likely but give him 2 combo's on average for safe measure.
3) JT; yes we block it, but still 4 combo's possible.
4) 22/TT/JJ; i'd discount these some because of turn check, but ime people tend to be MUBSY in big pots this deep. Give him like 3 combo's out of a possible 5.
5) Adxd and other missed draws; considering he called an UTG raise he probably doesn't have all AdXd, let's give him 4 of those. I'd also give him hands like Qd9d or 8d9d as possible random bluffs, so 6 total. Based on description, maybe he bets river with half of those hands(?), so another 3 combo's.
In summary, that gives us 3 combo's we can beat, and we lose to 9 combo's, which means we win 25% of the time. That means most we should be calling otr is a half pot bet (which would be 25% of the eventual pot), or $305. Villain bets more than that, so yeah, sigh fold i guess.
Off course i've made a bunch of random assumptions, and i've got no read or experience with villain, so YMMV. Hope you made the correct decision.
Last edited by Viral25; 07-05-2019 at 03:55 PM.
Reason: Formatting
07-05-2019
, 04:25 PM
Quote:
Interesting hand.
Pre: depending on UTG's stack and perceived range this might be a fold, or perhaps a 3bet. Flatting would be my least favorite option. UTG would need to have >150bb's to call imo.
Flop: JTx two tone is one of the most dynamic flops you can have, so if i'm betting, i'd prefer to bet bigger than 1/2 pot, maybe 100-120ish.
After we get raised i might just fold since even his (semi) bluff range has tons of equity and his value range has us in jail. Mind you this flop went 7(!) ways, so on average he rates to have a very strong hand.
Folding AJ on this flop is definitely not solver approved, but this deep against non-maniacs we are often gonna play a enormous pot with 1 pair against a strong range on an extremely dynamic runout. Occasionally he will 'bluff' us with KJ, ces't la vie.
Btw, x/calling this flop seems a reasonable option, for all the reasons stated above.
Turn: Definitely check in flow, if we bet and get raised we have to fold. Some worse hands will fold and if he raised Adxd or Qd9d on the flop, he might not want to flat now either. We have decent SDV and now have better equity value vs his drawing range as well, so let's get to showdown as cheap as possible.
River: i like how you categorized his range, now try and assign a # combo's to each of those categories. For instance:
1) QQ+; indeed not very likely because of pre, and he's highly unlikely to bet river with them. 0 combo's.
2) KQ; again, not likely but give him 2 combo's on average for safe measure.
3) JT; yes we block it, but still 4 combo's possible.
4) 22/TT/JJ; i'd discount these some because of turn check, but ime people tend to be MUBSY in big pots this deep. Give him like 3 combo's out of a possible 5.
5) Adxd and other missed draws; considering he called an UTG raise he probably doesn't have all AdXd, let's give him 4 of those. I'd also give him hands like Qd9d or 8d9d as possible random bluffs, so 6 total. Based on description, maybe he bets river with half of those hands(?), so another 3 combo's.
In summary, that gives us 3 combo's we can beat, and we lose to 9 combo's, which means we win 25% of the time. That means most we should be calling otr is a half pot bet (which would be 25% of the eventual pot), or $305. Villain bets more than that, so yeah, sigh fold i guess.
Off course i've made a bunch of random assumptions, and i've got no read or experience with villain, so YMMV. Hope you made the correct decision.
Pre: depending on UTG's stack and perceived range this might be a fold, or perhaps a 3bet. Flatting would be my least favorite option. UTG would need to have >150bb's to call imo.
Flop: JTx two tone is one of the most dynamic flops you can have, so if i'm betting, i'd prefer to bet bigger than 1/2 pot, maybe 100-120ish.
After we get raised i might just fold since even his (semi) bluff range has tons of equity and his value range has us in jail. Mind you this flop went 7(!) ways, so on average he rates to have a very strong hand.
Folding AJ on this flop is definitely not solver approved, but this deep against non-maniacs we are often gonna play a enormous pot with 1 pair against a strong range on an extremely dynamic runout. Occasionally he will 'bluff' us with KJ, ces't la vie.
Btw, x/calling this flop seems a reasonable option, for all the reasons stated above.
Turn: Definitely check in flow, if we bet and get raised we have to fold. Some worse hands will fold and if he raised Adxd or Qd9d on the flop, he might not want to flat now either. We have decent SDV and now have better equity value vs his drawing range as well, so let's get to showdown as cheap as possible.
River: i like how you categorized his range, now try and assign a # combo's to each of those categories. For instance:
1) QQ+; indeed not very likely because of pre, and he's highly unlikely to bet river with them. 0 combo's.
2) KQ; again, not likely but give him 2 combo's on average for safe measure.
3) JT; yes we block it, but still 4 combo's possible.
4) 22/TT/JJ; i'd discount these some because of turn check, but ime people tend to be MUBSY in big pots this deep. Give him like 3 combo's out of a possible 5.
5) Adxd and other missed draws; considering he called an UTG raise he probably doesn't have all AdXd, let's give him 4 of those. I'd also give him hands like Qd9d or 8d9d as possible random bluffs, so 6 total. Based on description, maybe he bets river with half of those hands(?), so another 3 combo's.
In summary, that gives us 3 combo's we can beat, and we lose to 9 combo's, which means we win 25% of the time. That means most we should be calling otr is a half pot bet (which would be 25% of the eventual pot), or $305. Villain bets more than that, so yeah, sigh fold i guess.
Off course i've made a bunch of random assumptions, and i've got no read or experience with villain, so YMMV. Hope you made the correct decision.
Pre: UTG (~300) is nitty but not an OMC. I think folding/playing AhJh is on the fence
Flop: As played, I should of bet larger. I didn't even thinking about folding until your explanation. Def a future consideration
Turn: Yes, I want to get to the river cheaply but still wondering if a bet (say 275-ish) protects my hand/takes down the pot. If I get called, re-evaluate river....if I get raised, easy fold
River: I honestly didn't think he was blasting off with bluffs on this occasion. I think he is betting with his own perceived value hands. Obviously, the question is, do I beat any of his perceived value hands? Looking back, the only hands I am beating is AdXd or some JX hand that is chopping