Quote:
Originally Posted by nowitsover
He is banking on GOP House and Senate to go rogue. And forces all Red state governors to give the electoral votes to Trump.
Can you imagine if that happens? RED States will give electors to Trump regardless of their state election result. That would be beyond madness. I think that will be the end of democracy and quite possibly the start of another civil war. Can't believe we are even talking this nonsense.
That's not really how it works, and in any case, you'd expect most politicians to vote for their own comfort regardless of party. Not looking for a political debate here, there are other parts of the forum for that.
I simply think the odds are better than 20:1, and I know many others think the odds are roughly 0%. So I'm looking to bet on the difference.
Those are around the current odds at betfair, the market with the highest liquidity, but I'm also not requiring people to lock up their funds on a betting exchange. It's possible - even probable - that the true market evaluation of Trump's chances would be lower without the liquidity aspect of people having to put up 20x odds.
Presumably the odds will change somewhat depending whether the court decides to hear oral arguments for the Texas case, which I'm not completely sure if we'll find out today but it seems likely more info will come out.