While it maybe possible to beat 1/2 and 2/5 for 8-10BB/hr, that is like the top %0.5 of players that can sustain that rate for more than a few weeks, lol. A MUCH more realistic rate would in the 3-5BB/hr.

The reason it is possible to win more live (compared per hour or per 100) is that the players have a much wider skill set than tends to happen OL. At any given 1/2 table (even higher too) you are likely to be playing with people that have NEVER played a hand of poker before. You will sit with people that seriously have not a single clue as to poker odds, theory, strat, they are their to win their piece of the "poker lottery" and thats it.

Honestly if you need a $100K/yr income, 2/5 anit it brother. 10/20 and above with a pretty fair amount of play at "above" unless you are in the top %5 of live players out there. A good but typical 2/5 grinder is going to be lucky to make $50K a year, year in and year out.

Is it just me or is every thread on 2+2 live players vs online players on how "easy live play is". Take me back to the days where I could come on B&M, LLSNL to talk strat and rooms not this bull**** arguing with no data to support it. As you Online guys always say Graphs or GTFO....

This thread asks "How much will live take off" I dont give two ****s if some 25nl guy can beat 1/2 or not. Until he sits with me and wins my money I could give a **** less.

As for the question at hand...I dont think its going to be a huge wave of online players, some citys maybe as for where I live I dont think so.

this is a good point. I would say a lot of the places that have several B&M venues may not see a huge change, whereas those that have ONE place out in the boonies might see increased traffic. I mean, it seems like here in San Diego, most of the people I play with play live and dabble online, or vice versa. I guess because live play is so accessible. I mean, I have about 6 different places I can choose from that are all within an hour drive, plus several more a little farther out.

That being said, I certainly did see a few folks out at the casino this weekend who were new to live but not new to poker. that they were online players was pretty obvious.

Poker Edge doesn't tell you when to steal. Poker Edge is not allowed on Stars or FT because it uses a central DB to give stats collected from all subscribers.

Damn I'm so pissed, the whole poker world has shut down.

Dwan posted a stupid tweet, he guranteed folks will get their money back. Offer to match galfonds million dollar tweet to pay the players on fulltilt and poker stars. He really didn't mean it. He is just so confident.

So I read an article today, talking about what's are future. Its not looking good.

The really good players will move to other countries. The mid and low level will play live low stakes. But most players don't even lie by casino's. So we won't see a big change in the live stakes. Unless you live in vegas, ac or la. The rest of the country is not looking to good.

The biggest hit will be to the wsop. I agree without online the main event will suffer this year. They are estimating 2k form last years 5k.

OK guys seriously, knock off the WR discussion. The reason we have a winrate containment thread is because its the kind of thing that can be argued about forever. This thread is about the changes to the game post-blackfriday. I don't want it derailed with a perpetual and unwinnable argument.

Thanks.

P.S. This is not a live-vs-online thread either.

ahahaa

I will note that for the first time I've ever seen, there are more people viewing this forum than the micro FR forum.

W00t!

i'm always surprised by how many people are lurking at any given time. i wonder how many strangers who aren't registered are reading my posts all the time.

creeps. haa

what's really insane is that there are actually 5 people viewing the Heads Up Limit forum. who plays Heads Up Limit?

The big factor that I was thinking of in my earlier post, in terms of short term, is not only that there will be more piranhas trying to feed off the same number of guppies, but that the concentration may be enough that the guppies go extinct. How many of the nice old donks are going to keep coming to a game where half the table never talks, is highly aggressive, and takes his money all the time? Not that he'll admit that last one, but "the game's no fun anymore" will likely resound throughout the donater community.

the last 2 guys in a LHE tourney?

Bring in the online donks! I am ready!

Seems like the HighStakes live players are out at @Aria tonight. When your rich your always able to play cards. Damn this recession.

Played my first live session last night since black Friday. Lots of changes, mostly good.

1) This particular game is a raked home game which up until this point has averaged 6 - 7 players. Last night it was 10-handed almost all night with a couple people waiting to play. I haven't seen a full table in this game in over a year.

2) Everyone wanted to talk about the seizure. Lots of folks have money tied up in Stars or FT or have friends that do so there was a lot of commiserating. Everyone who had played live since Friday said that number of players at local games had increased significantly and there was a lot of action. A few were planning trips to OK, Vegas, Louisiana casinos within the next couple of weeks.

3) None of the new faces were completely new to live play and none of them were complete fish (except maybe one, see below). They all started out solid pre-flop but as suspected some of them seemed a little lost post after squeezing in the sb and getting three callers. As the game progressed some became visibly frustrated, loosened up pre, and started limping/over-limping a lot and became spewey post. It became very clear which players were used to multi-tabling and did not have the patience to fold and not play for an hour if necessary. Lack of patience, more than anything else I saw, was the most exploitable leak.

4) The game played a lot slower and I got less hands in per hour. This is not just because we were 10-handed. These players are a lot more likely to tank than the usual regs and visitors at this game.

5) All but one of them had live leaks but their fundamentals were good and what you would expect from a solid online player at $0.25/$0.50 and better. One guy had a tendency to give too much credit when facing a raise or big bet pre, but then called down too light post. He folded KK face up when the reg to his left 5bet all-in preflop... o_O Same guy later called down QQ on a J 10 J 5 9 / 3 clubs board... This was a good reminder that "plays online" does not necessarily equate to "good player."


Overall I feel like the injection of new blood is and will continue to be a good thing. I can say for sure that those who have both solid fundamentals / online experience and a lot of live experience are in great shape right now.

I definitely agree. But most people in here are so caught up in this online vs. live thing. Personally, I try to be the best poker player I can be in any form of poker (online, live, tournaments, mixed games, etc.). If an online player can't make the adjustments to the live game (and vice versa), then they aren't good overall poker players.

It reminds me of when I used to play live years ago and the players would talk down on the 1/2 game. They played 2/5 because their raises got "respect" there. Instead of adjusting to the game conditions, they'd rather apply a rigid one-size-fits-all strategy to the game.

So if the online players turn their low to mid stakes 6 max strategy into a one-size-fits-all approach for live cash games, they will fail miserably. They just won't be up against the right kind of opponent often enough to 3bet light, etc as a general strategy.

Remember too that most players online are losing/breakeven players. Win rates have been slashed dramatically since the poker sites started dividing up the player pools at different stakes.

While I agree a lot of the online guys are going to have moderate to solid fundamentals, that isn't everything. They might not make enough opponent specific plays. They might not be able to perform well in a live environment while looking their opponents in the face. They could be tilted by so many things (pace of play, dealing with players, background noise, etc).

This is just a really long winded way of me saying I don't think the games will be much tougher or softer. The good players will make the necessary adjustments and the bad players won't. Maybe the higher stakes games will be tougher. But for our purposes at 1/2 and 2/5, I don't see much of a change either way.

Cliffs: Don't be scared of the online players. A lot of them won't adjust well if they take their default 6 max approach. Good players will adjust properly and bad players won't.

That's good to hear, that you want to be the best player period. Not a lot of people have that attitude. Good post by the way.

I think it will be good for winning live players and the now empty poker rooms in general. Just as many bad players will come out to play as serious online professionals. It should be sweet for live games and struggling casinos

However, it's very unfortunate for online poker and poker in general

Black Friday episode of Deuce Plays podcast is up

As Kurt and I said, no more discussion of winrates in this thread.

bad day for poker in general surely TV poker will take a sharp decline as shows such a PAD and HSP or PS big game are all basically adds for online sites,those shows are done, WSOP is still on I think for this year on TV. not good for bringing new players into the game.

I listened last night. It was depressing to hear Bart say it might be his last cast

It must really suck to work for a poker based business right now.

In the last few sessions, I saw a lot of 3BB raises with big PP in my 2/5 games.

Been very hesitant on 3-betting light and definitely tighten up my post-flop plays as well.

These players however, seem to be playing for very small edges, such as value bet too little and fold too often for live games.

I want fewer online players at my table to take up room for the whales.

Looks like the money will be coming into the games after all.

http://www.justice.gov/usao/nys/pres...reementspr.pdf