Otf, if villain can have a good amount of overs and has a tendency to overfold vs cbets like you said, then I see no reason why you shouldn’t be cbetting here with a medium sizing.

There are couple reasons I like this.

1. This board is very connected, and the range that we’re targeting to fold is small, but will likely be very inelastic given the player type. He’ll likely be folding his overs for pretty much any size, so I don’t see much of a reason to go huge. Even this player type probably won’t fold his pair plus draws, so there’s no reason in trying to size up to get him to. The sizing you picked will likely generate the required number of folds, especially given your hand equity when called.

2. When we do get called, we start to build a pot with a draw to the nuts and a hand that will have massive equity against our opponent’s calling range.

3. When we check, we make it a lot more difficult to get a lot of money into the pot given how obvious our draws are, and given the fact that we’re out of position. Let’s say we check call a medium sized bet and make our flush or straight on the turn. Pretty much any line we take that attempts to get max value will turn our hand face up and allow our opponent to comfortably fold some fairly strong hands.



For those saying to check call here due to this board connecting better with the villain, I think this is a spot where we can deviate from theory. The reason we check boards like this that favor our opponent is because a strong player will be able to recognize that this board is better for them, and consequently apply heaps of pressure on us for cbetting at an incorrect frequency. An OMC hardly seems like the player who will be capable of this, and I think an exploitative approach of simply betting a strong equity semi-bluff vs a villain who overfolds to cbets will be a lot more profitable in the long run.

i mean you check because it hits a cold callers range extremely well, but bc the guy will know that and act upon it. if you just x range here you can still do things on later streets if he caps himself. all of the hands that are going to fold to a bet on the flop that dont improve on the turn are going to fold if you start putting large (think > psb) bets out there

Ding ding ding. This flop is pretty close to a range check, regardless of your holding. You can m mix in some C/R and this hand would be a good candidate but blindly betting here OOP is suicide.