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How do we choose our raise sizings post flop? How do we choose our raise sizings post flop?

06-05-2019 , 11:12 PM
What are standard raise sizes post flop? I feel like I have a really solid foundation on pre sizes and sizes to bet post flop, but what is standard post flop? I thought it was potting it a lot of the time, but it seems like that's seen as too large. Here are some example hands:

1. $200 effective. LAG opens HJ $12, BTN calls, and we call in BB with 7 7.

Flop ($37): J 7 6. We check, HJ bets $25, BTN folds and it's on us. What is a good raise size? I can see that potting it here isn't the best because it puts in over half of our stack. What size do we go and why? How would this size change if we were $400 effective?


2. $300 effective. Four limps to us OTB and we raise to $20 with T T and tight passive UTG +2 calls and loose passive in MP calls.

Flop ($67): J T 9. UTG +2 checks, MP bets $35, and it's on us. What is a good size to go here?



Thank you.
How do we choose our raise sizings post flop? Quote
06-05-2019 , 11:26 PM
Hand 1 I like a raise to about $85 and shoving any turn.
Hand 2 I would be sizing to about $140, and if we were even just a bit shorter I would simply shove. Shoving basically any turn again except maybe the king of hearts. But probably still just shoving regardless actually.
How do we choose our raise sizings post flop? Quote
06-06-2019 , 12:19 AM
just make it 3-4x whatever amount they throw out there. If they do something stupid like minbet then just pretend they checked and bet 50-75% of the pot.
How do we choose our raise sizings post flop? Quote
06-06-2019 , 12:38 AM
As long as you flop a set every time who cares what your sizings are. You will print.

But really,

Solvers prefer slightly under 3x for XR

Although when Linus 3bet Sam Greenwood OTR with 2x on 99328 vs his J8s. 4.4x was the optimal size according to PIO. 3x would have been losing money.

I think it depends on ranges but I would start off at 3x.
How do we choose our raise sizings post flop? Quote
06-06-2019 , 12:38 AM
These hands aren't the best examples for this purpose imo, since the SPR is shallow enough for us to be committed no matter which sizing we use, with different types of hands. In these scenario's i'm essentially just shoveling money in with a narrow range and hope it all works out.
It gets much more interesting/complicated when we are >500 deep or if these flops werent this coordinated. On a flop of, say, KT6r with 1k stacks, i can see myself using much more extreme sizing, both big and small.

Anyway, i don't want to derail .
H1 i'd make it pretty big, probably around 90-100, we have many nut- or combo draws he can put us on (and which would be in need of some fold equity) and it makes turn play almost trivial with 40% pot left behind.

H2 i'm probably flatting sets, raising only KQ and AK/AQ of . But if i'd raise it would be to around 90-100, to price in Jx and 2 pairs. We are gonna end up checking back (or even folding) on quite a few turns, which is why i'd prefer to just call on the flop.

My general guidelines for sizing big(ger) on the flop, more or less in order of importance, would be:
- i'm OOP
- i have a wide perceived (semi-)bluffing range
- the SPR is high
- the board is wet
- villain has a range advantage
- villain doesn't adjust to sizing enough
- villain doesn't call often enough
- we are HU and not multiway
How do we choose our raise sizings post flop? Quote
06-06-2019 , 12:43 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Viral25
These hands aren't the best examples for this purpose imo, since the SPR is shallow enough for us to be committed no matter which sizing we use, with different types of hands. In these scenario's i'm essentially just shoveling money in with a narrow range and hope it all works out.
It gets much more interesting/complicated when we are >500 deep or if these flops werent this coordinated. On a flop of, say, KT6r with 1k stacks, i can see myself using much more extreme sizing, both big and small.

Anyway, i don't want to derail .
H1 i'd make it pretty big, probably around 90-100, we have many nut- or combo draws he can put us on (and which would be in need of some fold equity) and it makes turn play almost trivial with 40% pot left behind.

H2 i'm probably flatting sets, raising only KQ and AK/AQ of . But if i'd raise it would be to around 90-100, to price in Jx and 2 pairs. We are gonna end up checking back (or even folding) on quite a few turns, which is why i'd prefer to just call on the flop.

My general guidelines for sizing big(ger) on the flop, more or less in order of importance, would be:
- i'm OOP
- i have a wide perceived (semi-)bluffing range
- the SPR is high
- the board is wet
- villain has a range advantage
- villain doesn't adjust to sizing enough
- villain doesn't call often enough
- we are HU and not multiway
You would probably want to XR a smaller sizing OOP since position goes up in value the deeper you get. Just saying.
How do we choose our raise sizings post flop? Quote
06-06-2019 , 01:18 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by DooDooPoker
You would probably want to XR a smaller sizing OOP since position goes up in value the deeper you get. Just saying.
Didn’t read everything above but playing IP against a polarized range is not easy and most flop ckr, ideally at least, pretty quickly polarize.
How do we choose our raise sizings post flop? Quote
06-06-2019 , 01:22 AM
Sizing depends on your range, strategy, frequencies, etc and thats the answer to every sizing question in these forums. What’s your range? How much of it ckr? Etc. H1 HU you may not even have a lot of ckr.
How do we choose our raise sizings post flop? Quote
06-06-2019 , 01:32 AM
Hand 1 is probably a fold pf unless you are comfy playing this guy oop. Small PP against lag OOP is a leak. Is this 1/2 or 1/3? As played call and x/r turn or shove flop would be my only 2 options.

Hand 2 you should have made it more preflop. Making it 30 puts the V's donk at a higher amount and shoving 270 into 150~ isnt that bad.

Both hands are awkward stack sizes but with heavy draw boards overbetting is never wrong.

Last edited by AAJTo; 06-06-2019 at 01:58 AM.
How do we choose our raise sizings post flop? Quote
06-06-2019 , 01:51 AM
H1: I make it 60 to 75, but usually 60. At 200 effective, I think anything higher hinders calling from KJ, JT, Etc. Plus you can roughly pot it OTT or if there’s an a/i raise here by the AXh draw.

H2: Higher for more effective stacks, more draws. $140 earlier is good and ship most turns. Depending on reads, calls, etc. there’s a decent chance you lose and stack off but a set is where I don’t mind GII maybe second best.
How do we choose our raise sizings post flop? Quote
06-06-2019 , 01:53 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Amanaplan
Didn’t read everything above but playing IP against a polarized range is not easy and most flop ckr, ideally at least, pretty quickly polarize.
yeah but our XRs should be smaller the deeper we are because position naturally goes up in value for IP.

Same reason our 3bets should be sized down OOP the deeper we are.
How do we choose our raise sizings post flop? Quote
06-06-2019 , 08:21 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by DooDooPoker
yeah but our XRs should be smaller the deeper we are because position naturally goes up in value for IP.

Same reason our 3bets should be sized down OOP the deeper we are.
Say 150 bbs eff … How does the amount of dead $ play into the theoretical sizing? IRL, I tend to size up OOP, very happy to scoop w/o seeing a flop.
How do we choose our raise sizings post flop? Quote
06-06-2019 , 08:52 AM
Thank you guys, very helpful. The 3x-4x rule sounds like a very solid rule of thumb.

About OOP though, why would we want to size down? I was always taught in pre flop situations at least that we want to size up more OOP to charge the player to play IP. Why does this change post flop?
How do we choose our raise sizings post flop? Quote
06-06-2019 , 11:33 AM
I typically like giving poor odds to draws when raising, so I default my raise size to offering 2:1 odds. I then compute what size that would be, and then figure out what that would mean regarding the rest of stacks and pot size. If it leaves me with just a lol behind, maybe I just shove now. Or maybe I size it down just a little less to leave me with an easy shove for the next street.

So for example 1, my default of offering 2:1 odds would be a raise to $112, which I would round down to $110. If called, that would create a $257 pot with just $78 left, so kinda a lol situation leaving just 1/3rd PSB back. So I would mostly just shove now. Admittedly it might make some difference if this was 1/2 vs 1/3, cuz I'm not sure how easily $200 stacks fly around in 1/2, but in a raised multiway pot at 1/3 NL they can be committed quite easily.

For example 2, my default of offering 2:1 odds would be a raise to $172, which I would round down to $170. This would create a pot of $407 with $110 left, so again a fairly lol 1/4 PSB left. So again I would most likely just shove now, which would be fine on this board where half the deck is a scare card.

My guess is that some will think shoving is overbetting (I'm grunching so I don't know), but the fact is that preflop has setup very small SPRs of 4.5 - 5. We're 100% committed on drawy boards and there's already been a bet into us. There's not exactly a lotta room to play here.

My guess is the most will size their raise to leave a more reasonable shove (say 1/2 PSB) for the turn. And while I don't think that's horrible, I'm not convinced it's better.

ETA: As was mentioned above, part of the reason we're in this somewhat tricky SPR situation where overbet shoving now might be fine is that (a) the preflop call in hand 1 is extremely dicey and (b) the preflop sizing in hand 2 is also dicey (if expecting 3way). Hand 1 is likely too loose a preflop call where setmining won't be profitable. Hand 2 we likely should be raising a little more to setup a more trivial commitment.

ETA#2: The "standard" 3x-4x "rule" or whatever is kinda useless in a vacuum as it doesn't factor in IO / commitment / remaining SPR / etc. I mean, yeah, sure it's kinda useful with regards to that's what everyone else does at the table and it's a "reasonable" raise, but other than that it's kinda just clicking buttons like everyone else, imo.

GimoG

Last edited by gobbledygeek; 06-06-2019 at 11:40 AM.
How do we choose our raise sizings post flop? Quote

      
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