Just was at my favourite local cardroom playing cash-game 0,5/1.

I'm asking if any of you does know a better way to defend against a strong semi-bluff.

Hero is UTG holding AT at a 6 handed table and raises to 4BB which is standard at this table. He is the shortest player at the table with 67BB.
Villain 1 (UTG+1) calls.
Villain 2 (CO) calls
Villain 3 (Button) calls
Villain 4 (BB) thinks for a while and calls hesitantly.

Villain 4 is a very straight-forward TAG with whom I do have a lot of history. The fact that he thought a while before calling narrows his range to hands which he would not play w/o getting this great odds.
Villain 1 to 3 are very loose pre-flop.

Flop:
2T9

Villain 4 checks. Hero bets 12BB. Villain 1-3 fold. Villain 4 raises to 30BB.

Pot is now 62.5 BB

After thinking a while I could exclude 99,TT and 22 from his range which only left T9o as a hand which was would directly beat me on this flop. I could also exclude the monster draw QJ and also Ax and 87. These exclusions were made because of his pre-flop behaviour. I've also never seen him raising on a pure bluff.

All other hands in his range would be semi-bluffs which are J8,86,76 ,23,24, QJ of any suite but pure spades and maybe A2.
I didn't think that closely at the table but I was setting him to a semi-bluff for around 80%.

So - the question is:

Would you defend your hand or fold TPTK in such a spot?
Which line would you take for defending against an obvious semi-bluff which is that strong?

1) in low stakes games you better have a damn good read that it's a semi-bluff and not simply a better made hand. In small games players are generally more passive (both with draws and in general) so youndef should weigh their chk/raising range more towards made hands than draws
2) given stack size <100BB, push or fold ... Prolly push if you're not scared of variance
3) I often play deeper (200bb+) where pushing there is spewy/bad Ina live game. In those instances flat the C/R and likely commit on brick turns (and it's a little player dependent)

1) Don't know if my read was that good or if I had good luck. I was sure he wasn't playing 99 or TT as he re-raises those hands against more than 2 players OOP. 22 would have been a snap call pre-flop. I'm not sure whether he'd play T9o in that spot. But that was the only made hand beating me that I could think of at the table.

2) Agreed

3) That's a very good hint. I usually play 100BB and buy up once I'm down to 60BB.

In this spot this was my last hand for the night. My driver was already standing behind me. If I would have found anything weaker than ATo I'd have folded and left the game;-).

"Would you defend your hand or fold TPTK in such a spot?
Which line would you take for defending against an obvious semi-bluff which is that strong?"

There really isn't much you can do against these strong semi-bluffs. That's what makes semi-bluffing such a powerful play. In this situation, you just might have the best hand at the moment. If he's drawing strong with one or two overcards, and straight flush possibilities, you're not going to play him off that hand.

Sometimes, the only defense is to fold.

Having a likely best hand at the moment facing strong redraw possibilities is not a good place to be.

Either fold it or ship it. This is a situation where calling is the worst possibility.

This is awful, terribad actually. Raising UTG with ATo is just spewy because you are likely to get called by AQ, AK, or AJs which completely DOMINATES your hand. Not to mention that you will very likely be playing an inflated pot OOP with a marginal hand as an "almost" short stack which is not profitable. ATo UTG is actually a fold. I would never limp/call or raise with this hand. I'd sooner raise w JTs than ATo UTG. So fold pre AINEC.

I have no idea how you can exclude these hands from his range. This hand started with 4 villains and 22-TT are 100% in their preflop calling ranges. Are you saying that if V had 22, 99, TT that he would 3bet pre? That is the ONLY way you can exclude these hands from his range. So, its not so much that you are "reading" V as it is that you are "hoping" V has what you want him to have.

This is absolutely ridiculous. You are "soul reading" which is something that a lot of live donks "think" they can do. QJs and Axs are 100% in V's range and there is no way you can discount those hands unless its your contention that V would 3bet pre with these hands???

Look, the fact of the matter is that V's range will include hands that you "don't" want to be up against. You can't just wish them away, you have to account for them. And it could very well be that after you account for them then you'd still make the same play.

But don't lie to yourself by believing that you somehow can soul read Villain for not having hands you don't want to see

Basically, what I get here is that you are saying V is semibluffing here 80% of the time. This may be the first thing you've said that I could call reasonable, however I'd probably drop it to around 60% of the time with the other times V having straight draws or weaker tens or sets (minority of the time)...

Its not about "defending" your hand. Try to take emotion out of it. It is a simple matter of equity and ranging. PERIOD. Nothing more, and nothing less.

We have TPTK on a really wet board. The pot is now the size of our stacks and if we shove and V calls we are looking at getting about 2.2:1 on our money and thus need around 32% equity in this spot. Against V's range, we will have 32%+ equity in this spot so we can go ahead and shove.

This may be different if we had 100bb behind, but we don't. We are at about 50bb behinds, so giving the size of the pot once action gets back to you, this is a clear shove.

Or, you can call and shove non-spade turns, that is acceptable as well. In fact, that is probably what I would do since we are OOP. Call the raise and shove all non-spade turns is the optimal play here IMO. Pot will be so big that V will have to still call with his draw and he'll be behind. Conversely, if he spikes the turn we can fold and save our remaining stacks "if" we are just 100% convinced he's semibluffing a flush draw.

I guess you did not read the words "hesitantly" and "straight-forward". He would be snap-calling w/ 22 and QJs as he usually plays very fast. And he'd definitely 3-bet with TT and 99. I've seen him doing it several times. However - but with with any of those hands he would not shake his shoulder like "ah - marginal but - let's take a look" before calling. I've played dozens of hours with him and he's very keen on acting like a robot.

Also we are not OOP. V is in BB, H is UTG.

ATo UTG is a IMHO a strong hand when playing 6-handed in a very lose live game where it is common to call raises with hands like K2o, Q6s aso.

But I appreciate your comments and critics. I did not want to see him showing down J8 either though it made my push mathematically correct.

If we shove one dollar we're getting 74 cents in return; we lose 26 cents.

If we shove ten dollars we're getting $7.40 in return, we lose $2.60.

If we shove a million dollars we're getting $740,000 in return, we lose $260,000.

We lose 26% of whatever amount we shove.

The OP has 37% equity. He's way behind the Villain who has 63% equity.

Oh, didn't see that. In that case, calling is the worst option and we have to shove over the top of Villain's flop raise...

????

This is 100% true but you aren't accounting for the dead money i.e. size of the pot when action gets back to Hero.

If the pot was $1000 and we had only $10 behind and 26% equity would our shove be incorrect? I know that's an extreme example but it makes my point.


Pot is 62bb when it gets back to hero. Hero has 50bb behind. If we shove and are called, then we are effectively getting 2.25:1 on our remaining 50bb and therefore need more than 32% equity for our 50bb shove to be profitable?

Am I missing something????

^ yeah, opening ATo UTG Ina 6-handed game with players who will prolly not 3bet you light and will play super face up is probably not bad.

It's hard to give advice tho since you're really short (~60ish bigs). I almost always play deeper so it allows you to open more pre. I still muck ATo in EP at a full handed table.

turn aggression. This board is a bit too wet to do it on though. If it were a less coordinated two tone board and you think he is likely to have a flush draw, then you call the flop, and bet the turn hard. on a board like this, too many cards are scare cards. I am probably shoving this flop if I think he can reraise with more than just combo draws+. (like QJo or 87o or random flush draws)

If at best, you're up against a combo draw, it's a pretty easy fold, imo.

First, fold pre; ATo is a junk hand from UTG.

Secondly - fold to the raise. You have no FE (if villain is even semi-competent, he fully expects the short stack to shove when he raises. He doesn't mind you shoving, which should set off all sorts of alarm bells). The best-case scenario is that you're up against some sort of combo draw, in which case pot odds make it a razor-thin +EV shove...but if you put sets and two-pair hands in villain's range you're absolutely crushed. There's no way you can dismiss sets so casually.

Thirdly, and a slightly different topic: I'm wondering if I would cbet this wet board into multiple people...people cbet here all the time 'because we have to charge the draws', but I wouldn't be that keen to bloat the pot with just one pair, with limited clean outs to improve, especially when we're UTG.

Its 6-handed. I think our stack size is more of a reason to fold than our position.

True, can't see any harm in a bet/fold.

So lets what, give free cards? Not get value for our hand? Hope board bricks and we can check our way to showdown?

In this case, given stack sizes and board? Yes.

We don't want to give out free cards. We also don't want to play a big pot with a small hand - and in this case, we have a relatively small hand: on a fairly wet, ten-high board, our 'TPTK' hand is rarely going to be best on the river, and we don't have many clean outs to improve.

The 'don't give out free cards' idea is about protecting your hand. The 'big hand, big pot / small hand, small pot' idea is about protecting your stack. When two conflicting poker principals are in play, protect your stack first, not your hand.