Think from villains range.. He is capped on 9X when she checked on the turn.. I simply expected villain to fold to a shove. I would have install mucked with A9 here.. I think I am not really thinking from live 1/2 table dynamics..

If you put 68 dollars in the pot with 40% equity on average you lose 13.60 from that action.

136 * .40 - 68 = -13.60

You can round it off and figure it out in your head. He has 20% more equity than you. Villain makes 20% of your 68 dollar bet, which of course you lose.

if she calls everytime that is.FE saves our ass
also, this is only her actual hand, vs other hands we got way less equity, vs others we are ahead
i guess vs the whole range she makes it to the turn with our equity even improves.

very bad example of a range:

ProPokerTools Hold'em Simulation

10,252 trials (Exhaustive)

board: Q69Q

Hand	Pot equity	Wins	Ties
AsTs	49.13%	4,994	85
hh, JT, KJ, T8, 78, 76, 86,56,98, 9T,9J,A9,A6,QJ,QT, QK,AQ,88,77,TT	50.87%	5,173	85

Huh? Ok, I guess. With 68 already in the pot, if V calls, we are getting 2-1 on our money, so 33% is breakeven.

Or to put it another way, if we put 68 in now, our equity is 38.4% of the total 204 pot, or 78.66, for a plus EV play.

This is the math i did at the table.
68 in the pot. risking 68 more. So fold equity req for break even = 50%.

she is capped at A9 atmost. she limp called and then check called on a draw heavy flop (flush, straight, gutters). So lots of draws in her range. My perceived range when i shove?.. KK+.

Any draws, or underpairs like (77-JJ) are checking behind. Guy is stacking off his entire stack on the very 'First hand' .

Considering all these, i expected the fold equity to be close to 90% as if she fails, she will be left with $60 ish back. Even if she callsf, i can spike A,10 or flush. So, i thought its an ok shove. I dont think most will call down with such a weak hand as low as low pair.

I think people dont come to casino's travelling far to fold a pair..

lol no

Low limit players would play Qx the exact same way.

Edit - and even if that were true. As we said (and you've also said) this is a terrible bluff card. If she called the flop with a pair she's likely to call your jam.

that is what i am trying to understand. is it norm at live low stakes to call a PSB shove on a paired boared when you have no reads??.

when was the last time you seen a guy sit at the table and bluff shove his entire stack on very first hand on a bad turn card?.. I am new to live poker and i thought its an easy fold for any decent player. So if you are the villain, what hand would you be putting hero on ?. with a flush draw and checked to him, does people shove at this level or take free cards?...

As some one said earlier, i posted result and this is making people getting biased towards and easy call..

Ffs. Stop think people at low limit NL are thinking any higher than level 0. 90% of them don't give two ****s about what your range is. I bet a good half of them didn't even realize it's your first hand.

Instead of "oh it's his first hand he's probably not bluffing" they are more likely to think "this guy just sits down and think he can run over the table huh? Well I'll show him!" While proceeding to call down with any pair.

Also realize for the 1000th time that your line makes little sense. You keep spewing crap like "hurp durp Her range is capped!!!" While not realizing Qx is about the only hand that makes sense with your line . Any other non-Q hand with showdown value likely checks behind and damn sure doesn't jam.

I wouldn't find myself in this spot. I would call a raise HU with 65s OOP, especially only 33bbs deep. As played, assuming I had a stroke, yeah ok probably calling the turn shove.