GRUNCH (means I didn't read any responses)
Quote:
Originally Posted by wheydacheese
1-3 at the Aria, pretty new table
My image is fairly tight, V has shown up with a few hands indicating hes calling too much light preflop and has a wide limp call range pre, he thinks hes rather crafty and his girlfriend is hanging on his shoulder to whom he seems intent on impressing...
3 limps around to me on the button, i have KhQh, noones shown any propensity to limp big hands yet so I pop it to 20, more or less expecting to take it down there. (i have 200 behind prior to the 20 bet)
V flats leaving himself about 200 behind.
flop comes 5h6s7s, V checks, I c-bet 40 thinking this misses the majority of even his light range. he check-shoves all in...i tank, theres like 130+Vs shove(120) in the pot, i have 120 behind, V covers me with his push so im getting a little better than 2:1 ...I feel like draws are a massive portion of Vs check push here given stack sizes, he could easily be committing with a hand like Js10s, or some double draw combo like Ks8s, Js8s...also a small possibility hes playing like A7 and hit the 7...anyways with that being a large part of the range im thinking i could actually be 40-50% on flop here but its certainly possible im only 23-26% here, if i weigh it heavier towards the draws (by the way this guy never limps pp1010/jj ish here) im thinking i can expect to average 35% ish so getting 2:1+ I made the call............thoughts?
well, lets take a look at some ranges for villain
Quote:
Text results appended to pokerstove.txt
102,960 games 0.002 secs 51,480,000 games/sec
Board: 7s 5h 6s
Dead:
equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 31.242% { KhQh }
Hand 1: 68.758% { 99-44, AsJs, AsTs, As9s, A8s, As4s, As3s, As2s, KsTs, Ks9s, K8s, K4s, Ks3s, Ks2s, Q8s, J8s, T8s-T7s, 97s+, J8o, T8o, 98o }
So I gave V a pretty generous range of flush draws and straight draws and we come out a 31% dog...
so yeah, this is pretty damn spewy.
This is one of those ego related plays we want to make and win and then turn over our hand so the table sees how awesome we are...
One of the things I learned a couple of years ago is that it is alright if a villain outplays us in the right spots.
In this spot, given the action, our call here is just -EV longterm. So even if V turns over 32o I'm 100% fine with letting him take this down. Good on him, great play villain, you deserve this pot... and then I move on to the next hand.
Trying to be super duper awesome in these spots and soul read like the grim reaper is a one way ticket to Level-Yourself-Ville population you
this is the world's easiest fold once he shoves...