I've come to a conclusion to estimate my realized equity to decide on calling preflop. Just want to see if this logic holds.

Scenario: 1/3 NLHE, 500 eff, you hold QJs in the BTN and are contemplating a flat after UTG opened and HJ called. For the sake of simplicity lets say the blinds are fish that will fold or call and never squeeze. UTG is ABC and has a real hand, probably TT+ AK AQs.

Usually I use the 15/25/35 rule here, I need 25x in IO (still not sure about MW vs HU, started another thread about that). So if UTG opens 10 I need 250 back, 20 I need 500 back etc.

Another idea I've had is to memorize raw equities pre. QJs against AA has 20% I think (without looking it up) and then I do this to get realized equity - Ive noticed that, on average, my drawing hands get to the turn without putting more money in. So I take this 20% raw equity and multiply by 4/5ths (will see 4 out of 5 community cards) and estimate I have 16% equity.

Why 4/5ths banana? I just notice that often MW hands check through OTF but as more cards peel the probability of a bet increases. So on average I get to the turn. Sometimes only flop, sometimes river.

This runs into exactly the same problem as it always does: implied odds and reverse implied odds will amplify or dampen the equity.

So realizing equity isn’t the issue. The issue is what kind of action you will get by making your hand, as well as how much you pay to draw beforehand.