$1/$2 NL Holdem LIVE

Let me begin by stating that this table had multiple interesting dynamics going on. Most notably, was a very particular brand of villain I call "Shippy McShipperson." Shippy is interesting in that he is your reckless LAG that is not a total idiot and can actually pull off some impressively timed bluffs - just not often enough to be a winning player. And he makes these plays way too often to be profitable. He probably plays 80-90% of his hands pre flop. His wife is also at the table and they are talking about their new BMW he bought her for Xmas...she falls in love with TPWK and don't mind getting half a buy in on it. These two villains have the table targeting them. There are also a few other "I will chase a flush all day" villains," and a smattering of tight passives - yielding an overall dynamic of wild table-ness.

V1 Image: The only other regular at table. I consider him a good player. And he is thoughtful about the game. He is TAG-ish but seems to be in a bit more pots than usual tonight (most likely due to the table composition this evening). Capable of having nuts and/ or making moves but generally does not seem to get out of line too often. He also knows I am a regular and likely feels the same about me.

V2: I will chase a flush guy. Goof ball. Stacked me earlier calling a $200 AI with a K high flush draw on turn. I had a set. He had K2 It was delicious.

V3: Shippy McShipperson. He was not missing out on many pots. And if you have a big hand you can count on him bluffing at you for stacks a lot of the time.

V4: Shippy's wife - falls in love with TPWK.

Hero: I probably come across TAG ish tonight. I have lost a few big pots on coolers.

Stack Sizes:
V1: (good player) $200
V2: (flush chaser) $400
V3: (Shippy) $500
V4: (Shippy's Wife) $300
Hero: $400

Pre-Flop Action:
V1 raises UTG+1 to $10. V2 calls from HJ. V3 in CO. Hero raises in SB to $40 with AA. V4 calls in BB and everyone except V2 calls - so 4 players to flop...

Pot = $160 (its a smidge more but after rake and bad beat are out its a touch over $160).

FLOP: Q92

Hero Bets $80. V4 folds. V1 raises AI (he has $160 left...so $80 more). Everyone else folds...on Hero...

Some thoughts of mine:
I'd like to hear thoughts on sizings here. Did I play this hand optimally? The critical street was the flop and I thought I needed to bet about half the pot as if I get pushed on by the Shippy's I can still get away if I got a read (I likely wouldn't but I'm just saying). And I guess against good player he was short enough that we get it in here?

Here was my dilemma on river though...we are getting 5:1 to call but can we put him on anything besides QQ/99 often enough to have over 17% equity against his range? I considered AQ and TJ as possibilities here but I don't know how often he calls my pre-flop raise with these hands. the dynamic of the table does shift things but i was really on the fence about the numbers here. I was about 80-90% sure he would have the set here...

Which leads me to another question: if you are in a spot like this where it is very very tight either direction and the sceanrio very well may be +EV if you are wrong about an assessment you have made...how tight does it need to be before you are like "OK...this is about an even call but I may be wrong about something which pushes it in +EV direction..." and make the call?

Thakns for your thoughts.

lol what?

Based on descriptions..
This is a call all the time.
Always.
Ever.
Always.

Lol you wanna fold? Um okay.

V4 / McShippy's wife must hate money.
Cold calls $40 three-bet from BB & folds on flop?
Yikes.


As for Hero, it's now $80 more to win $400 with AA? Auto-call.

Shove dude. If he has a set gg variance.

Easy call, really never ever folding this spot.

If V1 showed me a set I'd fold. Otherwise there are enough hands in his logical range that we beat (AQ, KQ, JT, KK)

wtf is this question

This.

Pre flop the sizing is OK but if V1 is solid as described I am putting him on a strong hand when raising UTG. I definitely raise bigger pre especially with the other 2 passengers. At these stakes against these described villains balancing is not required. Shovel money pre up to their max limits. I probably go $55-$60 pre. AP on the flop with 4 way action I lead bigger like about $120 as the flop hits a fair amount of draws and my money goes in 100% after V1's raise. KK is in his range, AcQc, AKcc, as well as the sets that cooler us.

Regarding the theoretical +ev; when I have any tough calling decision I default to talking to V. They tell me far too much and will frequently even show a card if asked. Bottom line in a tough decision is are they comfortable. If uncomfortable I GII. If really comfortable I am narrowing their range to where its usually not +ev and I fold. In general I avoid neutral EV calls as there are so many better spots and it keeps my winning image in tact. A winning image allows me to take lots of liberty at the table. With a winning image they get MUTB syndrome and the game is much easier.

Fold obviously

I'm raising more PF.

Yeah, with all those callers I'm making it at least $50-60.

Never ever fold the flop. You've likely overestimated your opponent, and even if you haven't you should still see something like AQ, KQcc, KK, AKcc a LOT here.

Also if he's calling $40 pre with 99 or 22 at this depth he's a fish and could easily have a lot of other crap in his range anyway.

With $160 pot on the flop against 4 opponents I'm betting much bigger. $80 is too small IMO.

There is so much money in the pot compared to stack sizes that I'm not going to be folding against these villains. Villain 1 has $160 on the flop in a $160 pot. There is no way I'm folding to that player even with the description you give. The fact that you bet before this villain acted makes this decision even easier.

pretty trivial call given the pot. He just needs to have AQ in his range. He probably does.

I found this villain description interesting and worth discussing

Pay attention to what hands Shippy is pounding the pot with for value, and if there's a difference between his line for value and bluffs. You'll likely find that these intimidating reckless players actually slow way down when they have a good but not nutty hand like top pair, recognizing that they want to get called by worse hands. They usually also prefer getting to showdown with second/third pair rather than turning those into bluffs. Often these players are polarized when they make huge bets, meaning they are either really strong or bluffing, and if he's making huge bets often he's bluffing far more often than not. Meaning you can wreck these guys by calling down super light when they make these monster bluffs.

And then some people don't even have value hands in their "bet scarily" range because they play those trappily, meaning when they show crazy aggression it's always a bluff.

The kind of players who will triple barrel jam as a bluff at 1/2 probably outnumber those who will triple barrel one pair (non-overpair) for value by a factor of ten to one. So I think you may be giving this player far too much credit because his aggression is intimidating.

go learn about SPR. It makes hands like this easy.

This x80 (the amount left you need to call).

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Grunch.

Looking at the flop and the SPR combined with player reads, you are simply committed to getting stacks in with basically any player. So now you just have to decide what the best way to get the money in is. Probably bet $100 and shove the turn IMO. $80 is fine, but I would go bigger for value cuz if they are calling $80 the probably call $100 too. Call his shove.

I don't get it. Are you asking how to snap call. I like the toss one chip in to signal call move personally.

Disagree. I prefer announcing "call" while holding your aces in the air, a la John Malkovich in Rounders. Always go for the film reference if you can.

OP: you have aces and got min check-raised all in on a decently wet flop. V could have a set, but also AQ, KQ, or any number of draws. This is the calliest of calls.

Yeah, I don't like to show unless I have to, so if I toss in a chip to call and see middle set I can muck -- also funny how this thread has degenerated into how to properly call an all in.

Back to the hand, while you could go bigger pre, I don't really know if it is necessary. Unless I read it wrong, it was close to a pot sized raise which I think is sufficient in this spot.