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Old 05-13-2017, 01:15 AM   #1
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Hero Range vs UTG AK

Trying to see what my range looks like from villain perspective. Also, what should V do on river?

V1: Sat down 1/2 with max buy in $300 about 45 mins ago. Has played tight passive at a very passive table - lots of limping and calling, few raises.

Hero: Has a solid table image, but mostly earned before V sat down. No big pots played in that time, but is winning with a $350 stack.

V1 (UTG) raises $10 with AK
V2 (CO+1) calls $10
Hero (CO) calls $10

Pot ~ $30
Flop - A65

V1 bets $15
V2 folds
Hero calls $15

Pot ~ $60
Turn - J

V1 bets $25
Hero calls $25

Pot ~ $110
River - J

V1 bets $25
Hero raises to $125
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Old 05-13-2017, 02:13 AM   #2
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Re: Hero Range vs UTG AK

Hands seems very WP.

I don't like 3-betting here pre. Flop/turn are very std.

River is a good value raise, he could put us on backdoor hearts/87s/flopped gutshot + backdoor hearts.
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Old 05-13-2017, 10:32 AM   #3
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Re: Hero Range vs UTG AK

If I'm reading this correctly, V1 has the AK and we don't know what hero has. OP is asking us to provide us with a range from V1's perspective.

Flop is pretty dry and hero closes the action, so I could see hero flatting the c-bet with top pair hands, middle and bottom set, and all the suited aces/suited connectors that make two pair in addition to 87s and gutter + bdfd.

On the turn I see hero continuing with all the above hands except for weak top pair and perhaps the gutterballs that aren't hearts. V1 is making a really small bet with a lot of money back, so maybe hero peels with those gutters hoping that implied odds allow him to get more than 11:1 on the $25 being bet. Also possible that hero has made top two.

When hero raises river (flat/flat/raise is sometimes called the Mississippi bluff line) I see a range that includes sets and AJ for value (so 10 combos) and some percentage of the counterfeited two pair and whiffed draws (so up to 4 combos of counterfeited two pair, 3 x 87hh/97hh/98hh, unsure about how many other whiffed draws). The big question is how often hero will decide to raise with the latter portion.

V1 is being asked to call $100 to win $260, so getting 2.6:1 on his money and therefore needs to have the best hand about 30% of the time to break even. If hero bluffs with *all* of the possible bluffing combos listed above, he is well within the 2.6:1 ratio and the call is profitable. So the question comes down to how often will hero bluff with his possible bluffing combos.

This is a tough question to answer without knowing more about your interpersonal dynamics (i.e. how does V1 think hero views him, etc). In general, though, it seems like he can have the best hand more than 30% of the time when there are that many combos out there that would want to bluff against the 10 combos of sets/AJ. V1 might also wonder if his own betting induced hero into wanting to bluff since 15/25/25 looks rather weak.

Last edited by Axel Foley; 05-13-2017 at 10:44 AM.
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Old 05-13-2017, 01:29 PM   #4
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Re: Hero Range vs UTG AK

Betting 3 streets looks pretty strong from a tight passive even if it's minbet-minbet-minbet. It kind of depends how self-aware Villain is.

The real question is what Hero's image is, and honestly whether Hero is self-aware.

Coldcalling a tight passive who raised UTG with AQ- is a really bad idea (maaaybe AJs+ is okay). Pairs don't get set mining odds unless the PFR stacks off with an overpair. Suited connectors and pairs have some fold equity but probably not enough since his range is so damn strong.

I'd probably put Hero on mostly sets and AJ, and wouldn't call with AK. But then I wouldn't be in the spot to begin with so it's kind of hard to say for sure. The vast majority of players won't bluff raise the river so in general I'm not worried about it but there's a nonzero number of people who have watched me shove $1,200 as a stone cold 3-bet bluff so arguably I'm not worried enough.
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Old 05-13-2017, 03:52 PM   #5
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Re: Hero Range vs UTG AK

Kinda hard to give Hero credit for much value here after smooth calling the smallish bets on the flop and turn. I would discount 55 and 66 because those should want to build a pot with the preflop raiser showing aggression and an A on board. AJ is possible, but I would expect a raise on the turn from a competent villain for the same reasons.

I think hero shows up with 87s, 8h9h, and lower Ax hands that decide to bluff river a lot here. Also possible Hero is sniffing weakness and is raising AK for value on the river.

If I ever bet so tiny on the river here against a competent villain, I would snap the $100 raise off without much consideration. That bet is practically asking to get bluff raised.
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Old 05-13-2017, 05:11 PM   #6
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Re: Hero Range vs UTG AK

There are the obvious 78 missed draws, and river sizing was inducing. Plus Op could've run into some BDFD's that called turn. Op's range is polarized between value (mostly boats) and bluffs, and could potentially have thin value with AK or AQ (fwiw, I might take this line with AQ and value-own myself). Given small sizing on river, if I'm villain with AK in this hand, so long as I think op is capable of bluffing rivers, I'm definitely going to call.
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Old 05-14-2017, 05:00 AM   #7
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Re: Hero Range vs UTG AK

Originally Posted by Axel Foley View Post
If I'm reading this correctly, V1 has the AK and we don't know what hero has. OP is asking us to provide us with a range from V1's perspective.
Woops lol

Yeah, calling with AK here.
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Old 05-14-2017, 07:19 AM   #8
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Re: Hero Range vs UTG AK

This is a terrible board texture to bluff, OP.

Since it's 1/2 NL, I'd would figure that there is a decent chance that my opponent has some god awful hand like Jc6c or Jc9c. Or maybe he has ATo and is randomly clicking buttons in his head. It's pretty tough to range someone when they play a hand like this.

Regardless, I'm calling the river raise. If he has J5o, then I'm going to have to actually see it.
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Old 05-14-2017, 04:19 PM   #9
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Re: Hero Range vs UTG AK

Thanks for the feedback. Hero had 76. I'm still learning the nuances of deep stack poker so I was wondering what Vs thinking might be in that spot.

V's preflop raise meant a strong hand which I could crush 3 handed with suited connectors. V's flop bet was small enough for me to think I could rep an A if he had KK, QQ, or JJ. His bet on the turn meant he had the A and hitting the flush draw on the turn gave me the option to semi-bluff raise to $100, which I think may be the best play with the threat of a $200 river bet. Instead I called because I thought I could get paid off on the river if I hit my flush, 7, or 6, which should have made me think the bluff raise wouldn't work. After V bet $25 on the river, it was an invitation to bluff raise and I thought he would have tossed an AK, although he could have had AA and AJ as well.

It's good news to be winning enough to play deep stack, but the lessons are expensive.
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Old 05-15-2017, 03:11 AM   #10
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Re: Hero Range vs UTG AK

150 BB's isn't really deepstacked, especially in a 1/2 game. If you were going to raise, the turn would have been the time to do it, though I don't recommend bluffing into an uncapped range vs. an unknown villain.

You picked up additional equity on the turn and were being offered a favorable price that nearly made up for the slight -EV call on the flop. That means anything you make back on the river will be straight profit. Villain will be hard pressed to fold AK+ to a 2/3 PSB to full PSB.
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Old 05-15-2017, 08:35 AM   #11
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Re: Hero Range vs UTG AK

You're going to get little useful information for the forum because most posters don't think about hands the way the average LLSNL player thinks about them.

Now that we have seen what you had, you gave a nice example of spew. Most LLSNL players are going to struggle to lay down TP, let alone 2 pair with top kicker. You make money in LLSNL by exploiting their inability to lay down a made hand and giving you direct pot odds to draw.
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