I had a session tonight where this hand came up. I wont post results, but i would like feedback on this line he took, how i played the hand, and what anyone else would do here.

Villian is a 30 something Arabian guy, he's known for having an extremely wide range. he's super LAG and any two are usually good to him. he will fire at most pots with or without it, always repping a pretty big hand. If he's drinking, its even worse and he as been drinking somewhat. He's talking a lot, tilting people on purpose, and has built a decent stack w/ luck + his crazy, crazy image.

My image is fine. I play a wider range, but nothing abnormal for a live cash game. I'm a relatively large winner in this particular game, and I'm usually comfortable playing against anyone else in the game. He's knows how i play, and he know's that I know how he plays, so some spots w him are pretty tricky. Here's the hand:

$1/$3 NLHE, 8 handed.
Hero is in middle position with $550, looks down at 99
Villain covers with about $700
Button straddles to $6.
Villian is in BB, calls $6.
folds to hero, makes it $20.
folds to Villain, he calls.

Flop ($47):
Q85
Villain leads for $35.
Hero calls.

Turn ($117):
5
Villain bets $75.
Hero calls.

River ($267):
4
Villain puts Hero all-in and goes into silent mode.
Hero ????

I tanked for a good 10 min on this one, and this was one of the hardest tests I've been put to in a long time. Just wondering what others think his range is? who's calling or folding? or thought processes and how I could have played this hand better. Thanks in advance.

$420 to win $687 so you need to be good about 40% of the time

is he doing this like every single hand? will he do this with any piece? have you seen him shove 2x pot before?

he is honest to god, wild, and drinking. Thats really all I can say. Other people there have basically said this, "if you play a hand with him and make it to the river, you're either gonna win big, or lose big. There's no in between" I'm not sure if that tells you a whole lot, but he bombs a lot of turns and rivers with large bets. The scary part is, he does it when he has it, and when he doesn't...

calling turn to fold river is by far the worst way to play this hand

If you can't stomach calling this villain down with basically a bluffcatcher nearly 200bb deep, then you shouldn't be raising 99 against him. Basically, this is only a gross spot because we got here without planning ("I have 99, I raise" instead of "what am I going to do in the very likely scenario villain fires 3 barrels at me?")

I really can't advise you on what to do in this spot without a really detailed read on the villain. But I can say that getting to the river without a plan was a big mistake.

then its a pretty easy call

if hes even equally likely to have TT+/Qx/5x as he is to have total air, missed FD draw, 8x, 4x and you're getting like 1.5-ish : 1 on a call, then you should call off.

he only completed on the BB, so id take TT+/AQ-KQ out of his range.

if you really think hes capable of 2x-potting w/ total air, then i would call.

I had a plan, it just didnt include him shoving the river...I was prepared to call something 100-175. Not that that really matters, I guess if I'm calling that, I'm calling here too?

this too. next time you play this guy and you see your cards, be sure to know what you're going to do if he "unloads the clip" before you get involved in the hand. if you cant take the heat with a marginal hand, then just fold and look to trap him with big hands.

Exactly.

"I'm going to put a bunch of money in the pot for sure and then fold if he bets too much" sounds like a pretty bad plan, doesn't it?

You're basically committed to calling down.

you didnt plan on him shoving river? so hes never done this before?

I've never seen, that i recall, him overbet shoving the river. He's usually within the pot although betting 3/4 pot-pot usually, so it came as a surprise he bombed for all of it.

should have mentioned that

idk if it changes anything because we still dont know if hes overbetting to bluff or overbetting the nuts. i do think now his range is pretty polarized, hes either got air or the nuts but that might not be any different from the analysis before i knew hes never overbet before.

yeah thats how i was looking at it at the time. Hes either got some A5/AQ hand, or nothing.

call if you think hes got air more than 40% of the time

i do. just wasnt prepared to call off to him, if need be.

ok if you do think so then call. results?

lol i tanked and called. He showed AJo

glad he showed it

now just call him down light until he adjusts (which he wont) and dont be scared of big numbers

also tell him to come visit south florida and play here

I just sat and thought my gut was right on this one, and thankfully it was. Thanks for the input.

this is teh most well played hand TC, well done

op, what happens when turn/river don't brick off?