Full Ring 200 NL Live. Playing 200 NL at the Bellagio last night. I thought it was a great board to cbet given the dryness and I had the lead. The villain was a middle age man who had been caught bluffing about 30 minutes before so I knew he was capable. I barrelled the turn thinking it was an overcard to any small pair and thought it would get him off of AK, AQ and 22-88. I also thought my hand looked like an overpair. I didn't think he could bet the river for value without a monster, so in my mind it was going to be 9x, 66, JJ (bet too small on river for boats or 9s IMO and too big for mid pairs) or busted straight draws. Sorry no official HH as it is live so i tried to piece it together as best I could. Thank you in advance for your help.

BTN: $243.45 (121.7 bb)
SB: $199.60 (99.8 bb)
BB: $207 (103.5 bb)
UTG: $292.05 (146 bb)
Hero :$620 (360 bb)
MP: $900 (450 bb)
Late MP: $216 (108 bb)
CO: $150.85

Preflop: Hero is MP with AcTc
UTG folds, Hero raises to $12, 2 folds, MP calls $10, Late MP Folds, CO folds, SB folds, BB folds

Flop: ($27) 9h 9d 6c (2 players)
Hero bets $15, MP calls $15,

Turn: ($57)Js (2 players)
Hero bets $30, MP Calls (snap call)

River: ($117) 2h
Hero check, MP Bets $50

Hero call is the worst as his range is much better here then A high

its either fold or raise to get him off a small pair

Don't you he checks back middle pairs as he either has the best hand and he is not getting called by much worst, unless he expects to get called by ace high which seems unlikely.

Check the flop

If my read was good, I would have fired the third barrel.

it's $1/$2? stop bluffing. get paid when you hit a hand.

ez fold.

If you're going to cbet the flop then make it a little bigger... I'd probably just shut down on the turn once he calls though. As played fold river, anything else is just going to be really spewy tbh.

What is he bluffing with exactly? 78 and T8 is a way smaller range than his value.

It is good that you are trying to hand read and a lot of what you said kind of makes sense, except your expectations of villain playing logically are far, far too high. He can easily be betting 33 here, neither as a bluff, nor for value but because he felt like it.

grunch

This is a fold. I love the double barrel and the J on the turn was a good one to act on but once he calls the turn we need to shut down. Unless something really scary falls on the river, like a K, tripple barrelling here would be spew. C/f is correct on this river, as what could villain possibly be bluffing with that we beat?

I prefer firing another barrel than calling, but I don't hate calling even.

he's repping a pretty narrow range and I feel like the quick call on the turn is more likely weakness than strength.

I think villain's range is any meddling PP, if you weren't able to get him off of it on turn with the J, it is unlikely you would get him off by firing the river...I would also characterize said villain as a c-station or non-believer, which are difficult to bluff.

I also don't quite think these villains would fold to a J as an overcard necessarily...they always put you on AK or AQ