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Hero Bets after Turning a Set of AAs. V Jams. Hero Bets after Turning a Set of AAs. V Jams.

08-31-2023 , 01:37 PM
1/2

V1 (UTG, covers hero): Loose-passive. Over 2 hours, he has open-limped, limp-called, and opened to 10. He has not 3bet.

V2: (SB, covers hero): Loose-passive like V1 except he’s playing more hands.

Hero (BB, 315): TAG

OTTH

V1 open-limps, two players call, V2 calls, hero with AhAd considers raising to 20 but raises to 15, V1 calls, fold, fold, V2 calls.

Flop (43 after rake): TcJs3h

V2 checks, hero bets 25, V1 calls, V2 calls.

Turn (116 after rake): As

V2 checks. Hero bets 60. V1 jams, rolls back his chair, leans back, and puts his hands behind his head. V2 tank-folds. Pot is 176. Hero has 215 behind. Hero?
Hero Bets after Turning a Set of AAs. V Jams. Quote
08-31-2023 , 02:05 PM
Not sure about pot math - think this is an easy call
Hero Bets after Turning a Set of AAs. V Jams. Quote
08-31-2023 , 02:33 PM
Besides KQ, he could also have AJ, AT, JT, ss, A3s or even AK. It's just slightly over pot, which is a good thing, makes it an easier call.
Hero Bets after Turning a Set of AAs. V Jams. Quote
08-31-2023 , 03:14 PM
Folding is not a thing here sorry you lost to KQ, show your AA for the pity bad beat gasp from the table or muck and dont tell a soul should be the only debate that goes on through your head.
Hero Bets after Turning a Set of AAs. V Jams. Quote
08-31-2023 , 04:05 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by thomasmyspace
Not sure about pot math - think this is an easy call
Yeah, we would count the pot as
116 + heros 60 + villain 60 = 236.
$215 to call - do the odds look good enough now? I'd say so. A player who doesn't 3b pre could have any of the flopped sets, and Broadway two pairs.

Physical tell is polarizing tho, and a loose passive usually has KQ here. *Usually*
Hero Bets after Turning a Set of AAs. V Jams. Quote
08-31-2023 , 04:10 PM
If he shows you KQ you have to fold. You are getting almost 2-1 but need 3-1. If he has KQ 75% of the time, you beat all other combos nearly 95% and gives you 40% equity (needing only 24%) and it's a call.

If you have a long history and just know he's not ever ever ever making this move nor shows up with 33/JT/AT/AJ/TT/JJ/AK/KJss you can fold.

But as long as some small percentage of the time he can, it's a call.
Hero Bets after Turning a Set of AAs. V Jams. Quote
08-31-2023 , 05:22 PM
Thanks for pointing out the error in pot math: 176 was the dead money before the all-in by V1. V1's jam put 215 on top.
Hero Bets after Turning a Set of AAs. V Jams. Quote
08-31-2023 , 06:30 PM
Looks like a call. You need 33% equity. You have about 25% versus KQ, so if he flipped over that hand you could fold — if he has two pair a small fraction of the time you’re in good enough shape.
Hero Bets after Turning a Set of AAs. V Jams. Quote
08-31-2023 , 08:12 PM
Yeah like others said I'm never folding this, if he has KQ that's poker.

Not the biggest expert here but interested in why people seem to be discounting JJ so heavily, if he's loose passive and never three bets he could easily have jacks, and calling flop with top set and then jamming when the board starts looking scary seems pretty standard from guys like that. The physical tell makes it less likely he has JJ probably, but I still feel like it's a reasonable part of his range(or honestly even TT). Against a range that is mainly KQ with some JJ/TT(and no bluffs), you still have to call off.
Hero Bets after Turning a Set of AAs. V Jams. Quote
08-31-2023 , 09:05 PM
This is a very easy call. You are ahead of a ton of value and semi bluffs and have 10 outs to the one hand you're behind.

He can have JT, QsTs, KsTs, 33 maybe even the rare AT/AJ.
Hero Bets after Turning a Set of AAs. V Jams. Quote
08-31-2023 , 09:13 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by maglor
Yeah like others said I'm never folding this, if he has KQ that's poker.

Not the biggest expert here but interested in why people seem to be discounting JJ so heavily, if he's loose passive and never three bets he could easily have jacks, and calling flop with top set and then jamming when the board starts looking scary seems pretty standard from guys like that. The physical tell makes it less likely he has JJ probably, but I still feel like it's a reasonable part of his range(or honestly even TT). Against a range that is mainly KQ with some JJ/TT(and no bluffs), you still have to call off.
Because he limped initially. Most people, even passives raise pf even if they won't 3bet it.

If anything they will raise very large initially because they don't want to play a flop.
Hero Bets after Turning a Set of AAs. V Jams. Quote
08-31-2023 , 09:42 PM
Given that most loose passives are very MUBSY and always very aware of what the nuts on a board, his range is extremely weighted towards KQ.

However, since you can't preclude he's doing this some of the time with a set or that he's the sort of loose passive that will go all in with less than the nuts, you have enough equity to call. And even if he only does it with KQ, it's not the biggest mistake in the world, so it's ok.
Hero Bets after Turning a Set of AAs. V Jams. Quote
09-01-2023 , 07:31 AM
Pretty easy snap call. If he has KQ, we aren't dead. Not to mention all the other 2p hands he can have.
Hero Bets after Turning a Set of AAs. V Jams. Quote
09-01-2023 , 12:04 PM
I concur with all of the above. Rarely see such strong consensus, though I do note our resident Nit, GG, has not commented.

Results? He had a KQ right?
Hero Bets after Turning a Set of AAs. V Jams. Quote
09-01-2023 , 06:00 PM
He has KQ most of the time. I think you can do whatever you want with this hand and the EV will be about the same vs a guy jamming into two players here. He has KQ probably 75% of the time, which might get you to your 33% break even point. Call, fold, not sure it matters in the long run. I probably gamble and call, never showing my hand if I lose.
Hero Bets after Turning a Set of AAs. V Jams. Quote
09-01-2023 , 09:16 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by larry the legend
He has KQ most of the time. I think you can do whatever you want with this hand and the EV will be about the same vs a guy jamming into two players here. He has KQ probably 75% of the time, which might get you to your 33% break even point. Call, fold, not sure it matters in the long run. I probably gamble and call, never showing my hand if I lose.
Nah I would show one Ace so people think I don't fold TP.
Hero Bets after Turning a Set of AAs. V Jams. Quote
09-01-2023 , 11:38 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mr Spyutastic
Nah I would show one Ace so people think I don't fold TP.
I like. Reduces bluffs and lets you overfold in the future
Hero Bets after Turning a Set of AAs. V Jams. Quote
09-02-2023 , 07:46 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by hitchens97
I do note our resident Nit, GG, has not commented.
I just table change. These players sound like they can put us in a sticky situation and that's not what we want.

I limp in but that's me. Nobody folds if I raise and we end up multiway with awkward stack sizes. Limping in let me play for a nice easy playable SPR. Plus, we're nutmining, so we make things very easy post. We won't really have any hard decisions and can just check-fold if we whiff.

Flop bet is very optimistic IMO. We only have a pear and nobody is going to fold.

On the turn I just live to see another day. In my game this is always KQ. I might just make a tight fold and save my chips for a better situation.

GdefinitelynotaparodyG
Hero Bets after Turning a Set of AAs. V Jams. Quote
09-02-2023 , 08:28 AM
Results

Hero tank-calls. V shows KQo. Hero binked a T on the river for the boat.

As Hero exhaled and scooped, he said himself: I just got lucky. I will to post this a hand to twoplustwo, prepared for any deserved humiliation from the pros.

On this hand I went into the tank for the longest time ever--a good thing until everyone began staring at impatiently. My thoughts in the tank: "you just witnessed three famous physical tells! You are behind with your top set. If he has KQ, you still have some outs. What is your equity against a made straight? I forget, but it's definitely not enough. OK, maybe he has crap. How much is in the pot?" As thomasmyspacer pointed out, I still hadn't answered that question correctly when I posted the hand. "I thought, the longer I wait, the more I'm going to tip the dealer, so don't take too long. I think I have just barely enough equity. Hey wait, I'm in a casino. Gambling is why I'm here! I call."

My thoughts immediately after the hand followed GG: He always has KQ here. My thoughts later to justify the call: He has all the 16 combos of KQ. I think AJ, TT, and 33 sometimes fit the narrative. Vs in this game spazz all the time, maybe here with AK, AQ, or as Spuytastic writes, also JT, QsTs, or KsTs. V maybe didn't 3bet JJ or KK preflop and on the flop. In this game, four percent of the time, people spazz with air because winning a massive bluff one time is worth losing four times.

I gave the dealer 5.

Last edited by adonson; 09-02-2023 at 08:39 AM.
Hero Bets after Turning a Set of AAs. V Jams. Quote
09-02-2023 , 05:43 PM
It's a non-question. Should I fold 2nd nuts with outs? Probably not without somewhat unusual circumstances which don't exist here.
Hero Bets after Turning a Set of AAs. V Jams. Quote

      
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