Probably simple for much of you - bordering stupidity. And you're likely to say I should move back down to the rake trap. I've even been accused of leveling in the past due to my stupidity (I guess).

Anyways ....

3/5 NL $300 Fixed buy-in. My stack $420. Villains Stack $300. I've been at the table about an hour. I've seen villain play one or two big pots that he lost. He calls OTF frequently. But he seems pretty solid as does everyone at the table. I'm almost certainly the weak link.

I'm dealt KK in UTG+1. Folded to me. I raise to $20. One caller between me and Villain in the small blind. Villain calls.

Flop: TJQ (pot $65).

Checked to me and I bet $45. Folded to villain who min raises to $90. All standard I think until villain raises. I think about min re-raising but only call.

Turn: TJQ 3 (pot $245).

Villain bets $85. I call.

River: TJQ 3 J (pot $405).

Villain pushes. I call.

My questions are:

Should I have re-raised big OTF with my OESD, over-pair, and back door FD? This would be basically semi-bluffing with what might be the best hand. Might he fold hands that are ahead of me or hands that have a lot of equity, Two-Pair or FD's and OESD's?

Should I have called OTR when one of the 2-pair hands he might have gets counterfeited? i thought the J was good for me. But upon reflection it seems players are more likely to call a pfr with TJ or JQ as opposed to TQ.

Comments and thoughts on anything requested.

You only have one pair and I would not want to put in a bunch of chips on that flop. River looks like a bad call. On the flop, bet/fold, check/fold to a big bet, or check/call to a small bet.

This sounds like a Los Angeles game, based on the structure.

Anyways effective stacks are 60BB so your V is pretty much short stacked. Your spr is pretty low to begin with.

With this situation, I think the flop is midraise for Hero's case is fold or shove. Personally, I would have shoved flop. You block a few combos of AK, block the 2nd nuts, and have 1 over pair and an OESD. I am assuming you lost but with 60BB, I am not folding

I think it's just a shove on the flop, although I don't expect villain to fold often, if ever. Note that you're actually ahead of villain's two-pairs. This hand is RIO because you'll usually miss, villain will continue betting and your hand will be a pure bluff-catcher. Also, it's hard to get money in when you hit.

Folding the flop would be very bad. We have way too much equity to even consider it. Don't forget we have an OESD to go with our overpair.

Imo, Villain believes you missed due to your small flop bet against at least two players. There are possible made hands on the flop, and your bet looks like a weak blocker.

Villain believes you can not have much of a hand, and he can take it down. If making you fold doesn't work, V hopes whatever he holds is better than than what you hold with perhaps a split pot at the worst.

I would over-bet the flop. If Villain pushes back, you should be able to fold as your hand isn't all that with the flops texture. If Villain calls or raise, it is c/f on the turn.

After the min-raise by villain on flop is all in or fold cause you know villain is getting his money in.
An A or 9 will kill you action as well so might as well get it in and ride the variance train.
I am guessing you lost the hand and want to see if you could/should fold to the min-raise.
The board is super-wet and hits villians calling range a lot.
Expect to see 2 pairs/ pair+straight draw a lot.
Would love to know results

Yes, LA. Hawaiian Gardens. SPR is just shy of 5 OTF. My understanding is below 2 is small. ?? What's consensus on SPR?

What's midraise? Was that a typo? I think you're saying I should fold or shove to his min-raise OTF. IMO shove >>>>>> fold as I have over-pair, 4 to a straight (happy side), and backdoor FD. But, apparently, at game speed I thought call was best . How can I fold?

My flop bet was 3/4 pot. Is that small? I'm basically charging FD's and Straight draws to continue. I can't really see folding OTF ever with both my hand strength and draw strength.

It's the pair + straight draw combos in villains range along with my draw that kept me in the hand. 2-pair is obviously in his range. Would he fold to a shove over his min-raise if he had 2-pair? Obviously AK and sets are in my range.

pokenum -h kd kh - tc jh -- td jd qh
Holdem Hi: 990 enumerated boards containing Jd Td Qh
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
Kd Kh 497 50.20 477 48.18 16 1.62 0.510
Tc Jh 477 48.18 497 50.20 16 1.62 0.490

I thought my equity would be slightly higher OTF given his actual hand. I had 13 outs twice.

After I saw his hand came my afterthought about him more likely calling a pfr having TJ or JQ as opposed to TQ.

OTR what am I beating? TQ, Qx, KQ, KT, 9T, 9Q. Are his 1 pair + draw hands more of a shove for him OTF? I have to win 1 in 6 to break even at that point (call his shove OTR with his last $100).

On the flop pot is $65 and effective stacks are $280. SPR is 4.3 to 1. That is low and normally I'd be quite happy to just stack off with an overpair with that SPR.

However, the flop is just about the most dangerous possible and you face a solid player who over called your MP open out of the SB. He should have a tight range here in the SB. Big blind has best relative position, a better price and closes the action preflop so could call wider than normal here. With 200bb+ effective I think a solid player could call 22+ AQ+ A2s+ , suited Broadway and T9s 98s 87s 76s depending on how the big blind plays. I.e. If BB rarely squeezes a deepstacked solid player in SB could overcall quite wide.

V is short stacked and that makes me question how solid he really is but, going with your read his short stack means he hasn't got the implied odds for speculative calls OOP. 60bb vs 4bb has implied odds to setmine (15 to 1 is inadequate OOP IMO but it is better than the bare minimum 7 to 1 so some people do it). However, if he is solid and only has 60bb I think his calling range should be 99+ AQ+ and surely he 3bets KK+ nearly 100%?

99+ AQ+ still gives you a bit of a dilemma because you are crushing AQ. He is drawing dead to an Ace so he needs one of two remaining Ks or Qs to beat you. At the same time his 12 combos of AQ are outnumbered by 9 of sets and 8 of AK. AK crushes you and you have about 40% equity vs the sets. AQdd is flipping with you. If he has two pair in his range it helps you because, with straight, set and board-pairing counterfeit outs you are actually the favourite (though he shouldn't have many combos of 2-pair). It is a close decision.

Your flop bet is not small at all. You bet large into 2 opponents on the world's wettest board. That screams strength to me. Villain minraise looks like he wants to keep you in so I doubt he ever folds to a shove. You can't really call and evaluate turn as A or 9 may stop a set or even AQ putting more money in and can you fold if a diamond turns?

It is fold or shove on the flop and unless you read villain cannot do this with AQ off suit I think you have enough equity to just gii on flop. Personally, reading this guy as solid I wouldn't think he does this with AQ and doesn't have many 2-pair either so I'd expect to be up against sets and straights mostly. Without doing the maths (on my phone) I think, against that range, I'd make a tight fold despite the dead money. Do the maths and let me know though - it feels like we should be able to shove here.

Against a looser player I'm pretty certain we can shove this because looser V has lots of 2-pair. Vs 2-pair on the flop we have 8 straight outs, 2 set outs and 3 board pair outs twice. On the turn when V doesn't boat up we get another 3 boardpair outs once. That's 4*13 and 2*3 outs or 58% equity. Slightly lessened by v's redraws to his 4 boat outs. Flipping or slight favourite vs 2-pair and facing AQ/KQ gives you enough equity to gii with the deadmoney to play for on the flop.

I would just reraise the flop or be willing to call down to keep his semibluffs in.

I don't think the J is a great card for you, but it isn't terrible. You have two red Ks which decreases his combos of pair and sd AND fds. he could easily think AdQd is the nuts here.

Without further reads, if I got to the river, I'd call.

The issue is the min-raise OTF. If you call, you're both pot committed, and villain should know this. So the question is why he would do this.

Often times this is just a matter of him liking his hand and wanting to bet more; he uses the c/r because he's more likely to get action on a large bet. Rather than leading into the field with a large bet.

I think you are overstating the case for two pair, because two pair in this case is a vulnerable hand that he would want to "protect" from draws, and he would be more likely to just lead out, rather than set up a c/r where the draw has the right implied odds to call the raise. In addition he might not risk the flop getting checked through, if he flopped 2 pair.

To me this looks a lot like a set that is happy to get it in even if you flopped a str8 with your AK. Another possible explanation is exactly 98 of diamonds, but he might just shove over you OTF if that was the case.

When he c/r, I think I would reach the conclusion that I was beaten, and make an excruciatingly painful fold.

This is a stupid way of thinking, because we can almost always come up with a range that will give us action that we are slightly ahead of. E.g. we have Q5 offsuit PF.

In this case you need to write off your BDFD, and you need to discount your OESD, because you may very well be dead to a made nut str8.

E.g. you have 76 PF and the flop comes A85; in that case your OESD has full value because it's likely you have good implied odds, it's unlikely you're counterfeited, and you can get action from hands that have no redraws. This particular situation is pretty much the opposite of that; you need to apply a significant discount to your OESD.

So mostly what you have here is an overpair to a horribly wet board and a villain who wants to go to the felt.

Notice that he not only decided to c/r, he ALSO decided to c/r the minimum.

^ CRAI OTF

I'm absolutely committed with these stacks and this hand on this board. 60bbs is short-stack poker. You have an overpair and a ton of outs. Folding to the minraise isn't an option.

So the question is should we (a) jam the flop or (b) call the minraise, intending to jam the turn? Answer should vary depending on your read of the opponent and your image.

Here, I think a flop jam is particularly tempting if we think the villain can ever fold two pair. At these stack sizes, he probably can't/shouldn't. But your line looks a lot like AK, and if he thinks you're a nitty fish who's playing out of his depth, he might talk himself into a fold.

If, instead, you think the guy can be overvaluing AQ/KQ, then I'd prefer calling the minraise and then jamming turn, once you're both fully committed.

Either way, just reload and move on.

^ If by "a ton of outs," you mean "a ton of outs if we need to improve," then no, your statement is emphatically false. If hero is behind OTF, and we weight the outs across a reasonable range of hands he trails, he has few outs.

That's the entire problem. E.g. against AK and K9s he needs runner-runner to win, everything else is a chop; against 98s he needs runner-runner or 4 clean aces, which he may not have (against 98 diamonds he's nearly dead to 3 aces, and facing a redraw).

Just a rough estimate, 5 outs if he's behind, and an opponent who is clearly never folding.

Sorry, 8 outs generally, but just 6 and facing a redraw if the 98 is diamonds.

So fully weighted and discounted, probably more than 5 outs if behind. But I still think this is very thin unless we can put a bunch of AQ, KQ, Q9, J9 and T9 in his range.

I'd give OP credit for a read that villain is stronger than him, but not that he's solid.

Or is it you who's constructing a range to advocate folding?

Giving V a range of sets+straights only is MUBS. Surely he can have combo draws and 2P as well. Sets+straights are still going to feel some need to "protect," even if sets and straights need to protect less than two pair. I don't care if the x/r was minimum. We don't have a read on what that means from this player and it can mean a ton of things from an unknown.

3-bet shove flop.

^ I never advocated folding.

^ No, it isn't. It's a necessary part of the process of deciding whether to go to the felt or fold. We'd like to get an estimate of our equity if we are behind. It's common sense, really.

^OK, but that's not how good players play. They don't start every hand with a blank slate; they leverage their experience and "table feel." It's an integrative process.

Honestly, how many players do you know that will play the 9 available combos of QT, OOP MW against a raise, 3 times as often as they play the 3 available combos of TT? How many players do you know who will c/r the minimum in this spot without a strong hand? How many players do you know who sit there and think, "Oh, I doubt hero just flopped a str8, hero can't have AK here, he never has AK here?"

Using raw probabilities as your starting and ending points is not using an educated system of analysis. We're playing against thinking, breathing opponents, not playing against the deck.

^ good post badlybeaten. It is very difficult putting a player on an accurate range. You actually need quite a lot of playing time with an opponent before you see enough of their showdowns to provide concrete evidence to inform a read. You can get an inkling of how someone plays from vpip, a few betting lines without showdown, how they look (e.g. Aware & observant or distracted/drunk) but these are just small clues.

We have to use our experience of how different players we know approach the game and use them as models for unknown players until we are able to build a more accurate model for them specifically based on evidence.

What I notice most about threads on here is how frequently reads on opponents are very limited. This is probably inevitable since players won't post hands vs opponents they have excellent reads on because they won't get into trouble against them nor be confused how to play against them.

This is why I personally advocate playing smaller pots and infrequently against unknowns. I probably give up a bit of value by being cautious and tight vs unknowns but it is only temporary - they shouldn't stay unknown for long if you're observant.

You earlier said "When he c/r, I think I would reach the conclusion that I was beaten, and make an excruciatingly painful fold."
I suppose this isn't technically the same as advocating a fold, but that's how I interpreted it and how I'd expect almost anyone else to.

I'm not sure exactly what you mean. I agree that it's necessary to approximate our equity against the hands that beat us; what I disagreed with was that Vs range is almost solely sets and straights.

It just feels like you are building a range around the idea that the min-raise must be super nutted and we are crushed. IME that's not the case, if that's the case for you then fine, folding should be correct from your perspective.

You're right, and I didn't. What we start with is our knowledge and experience of how unknowns play, then we integrate reads and experience for specific villain's as we get them and adjust. Based on what we know about a villain we build a weighted range based on his actions throughout the hand and evaluate the profitability of our actions against that range considering how we expect that range to play future streets. This villain is essentially unknown to me as I don't want to give villain much credit for being "solid." IME, A min-raise here against an unknown can be a lot of things, meaning he has a wide range, meaning he has more than just sets and straights (specifically, two pairs and combo draws as well).

It would be weird for anybody to play QT this way three times more often as TT per combo. Why would someone do that?

I don't doubt Villain thinks he has a strong hand. I guess where we disagree is what villain could consider "strong."

I have no idea what your going on about with AK.

Badlybeaten means villain should be fearful of hero having AK because, in a lot of V's eyes, PFR has AK a lot. How often do you hear a fish grumble "I put you on AK" after making some stupid call down vs your overpair/set/top pair?

Surely if someone is unafraid of a really obvious nut hand there is an increased chance they have it themselves? If not they at least have what they view as a strong hand with outs vs stronger hands.

I agree there are a lot of fishy players for whom 2-pair is "the nuts" on any flop. For me that is a specific read that I want to see evidence for. My default model for unknowns is a as follows:

- somewhat tight when raising preflop
- nit tight 3betting preflop
- calls a bit too wide preflop
- some awareness of position but calls too wide OOP anyway
- realises it is more likely the nuts is out in a multiway pot than heads-up
- can be aggressive with the initiative and decent hand or draw
- tendency to be passive in face of opponents' aggression
- struggles to fold top pair+ but will do it vs tight players' aggression on scary boards
- won't pull moves on unknowns but capable of doing so if given cause to think someone is over aggro/loose or weak/tight
Capable of hand reading at a basic level with a tendency to "putting you on a hand" rather than proper ranges
- tendency to MUBsy thinking
- postflop raises are frequently the nuts though sometimes top pair "finding out where it's at".

I admit that is conservative. I add it can only take one hand for me to move an unknown off that model.