PokerStars Game #19699265832: Hold'em No Limit ($3/$6) - 2008/08/17 - 21:41:41 (ET)
Table 'Philia' 9-max Seat #4 is the button
Seat 1: RTfishLb8 ($391.65 in chips)
Seat 2: billzfan86 ($591 in chips)
Seat 3: stfu donny ($1203.95 in chips)
Seat 4: dankness3 ($596.85 in chips)
Seat 5: HYXCHEN ($474.25 in chips)
Seat 6: ERockGuy ($609 in chips)
Seat 7: cwallerpu ($323.80 in chips)
Seat 8: 3boyz1girl ($315 in chips)
HYXCHEN: posts small blind $3
ERockGuy: posts big blind $6
Hungry: sits out
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to dankness3 [Ad Qc]
cwallerpu: folds
3boyz1girl: raises $12 to $18
RTfishLb8: folds
billzfan86: calls $18
stfu donny: folds
dankness3: calls $18
HYXCHEN: folds
ERockGuy: calls $12
*** FLOP *** [Qs 5h Ac]
ERockGuy: checks
3boyz1girl: checks
billzfan86: bets $60
dankness3: calls $60
ERockGuy: folds
3boyz1girl: folds
*** TURN *** [Qs 5h Ac] [Jd]
billzfan86: bets $140
dankness3: calls $140
*** RIVER *** [Qs 5h Ac Jd] [6h]
billzfan86: bets $373 and is all-in
?

sorry you got coolered

pretty easy fold from where im sitting

well i mean, its an easy fold in the traditional sense of he's never value betting worse ever, so just estimate his bluff frequency and make the correct play, normally folding.

this would be a pretty elaborate bluff attempt 4way...

I agree fold. Your hand is fairly face up as AJ+ and hes taking you to the the town of value. He probably has 55.

I cant see him bluffing here and hes vbetting with less then AJ, so its a pretty clear fold.

Billzfan is pretty damn aggro. Are we totally illiminating aj, a5 from his range?
I think this is pretty close.

i disagree with folding

only hand that beats us which makes sense is 55

didn't we flat call/slowplay on the turn to induce a river shove? i dont get it

^^^^^^ Totally agree, particularly with Villain being such an aggro player and you having under-repped your hand a little. Villain could easily put you on a marginal hand that can get pushed off on the river.

yes the fact that its billz makes it pretty close, but the problem is that the only hand that makes sense as a bluff is KJ. Even kt makes a straight.

I was actually thinking there's a good chance he would turn a weaker made hand into a bluff, e.g., lower pairs, Ax, etc. He could also think he's value-betting a lower 2-pair.

im not gonna say what i had yet, but imo if u call turn u have to call a river brick card

Definitely make your decision there, assuming river blank (which shouldn't have changed anything).

373 into ~845 = 2.273 to 1 pot odds on the river call

do u think AA,QQ are in his range here?

or is it just AJ, 55, A5 (maybe) and random air hands?

i agree that as played u have to more or less snap the river regardless of the fact that ur gonna see 55 a ton of the time

Would be a tough fold. Billzfan seems to 3-bet me more than any other player I've seen. Does he 3-bet you guys a lot too?

3bet fold pre, as played meahh its really close flip a coin? really I would lean on folding though

being that he knows you didn't flop a set he could def be vbetting worse

crying call/reload

We're getting pretty close to correct odds even if he's never bluffing and only rarely "overplaying" AJ.

Board: Ac Qs 5h Jd 6h
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 71.429% 57.14% 14.29% 8 2.00 { QQ, 55, AQs-AJs, KTs, AQo }
Hand 1: 28.571% 14.29% 14.29% 2 2.00 { AdQc }

This has gotta be a call

IMO, once you flop top 2 here you are getting it in, especially vs. an aggro player. You only lose to sets and have two blockers. I don't see how / why you would possibly seriously entertain folding here, especially against an aggro player.

FWIW, I think A5/AQ/AJ are all in his river value-shoving range, and QJ may be as well since you just flatted the turn and there's less than a PSB left on the river.

folding here is insane for me, Dank has a different image than me though.

fwiw i was up for like 36 hours when i posted in this thread

i still think its very likely a fold as dank because he's such a postflop nit

obv i'd call if it were me


Also I don't think betting AJ here on this river would be an overplay at all, I just don't expect him to lead it on the flop like ever.

also the "call river if you call turn" maxim is almost always complete nonsense

I disagree. While sometimes it's fine to call a turn bet and fold on the river (mostly where you're not committing yourself, or where a bad river card comes), what we're talking about here is committing a big chunk of your stack on the turn and then folding on the river when the board is unlikely to have changed anything. "Seeing where you're at" by investing such a large amount on the turn (and in most people's estimation, committing yourself to the pot) and then folding on the river can be a huge leak, particularly against an aggro and good player who is very likely to push the river. Bottom line: Where a turn call will result in likely "pot committment" (i.e., you'll be getting something like 2:1 on the river or better) barring a bad river card, you should generally make your decision at that point.

yes, but his range narrows considerably from turn to river. everyone's does. If everyone followed through on 100% of their spews then the games would be very very good.

Agreed. There are many situations where you will call the turn and fold the river.

I think in this particular case, if you're going to C/C the turn with a strong hand here, you should also call a river blank.