Quote:
Originally Posted by Princess Azula (2)
I would fold as played. But I prefer a call PF. I like playing {JJ} heads up, in position, and against a range I CRUSH.
If I did 3bet, I would have sized smaller. Probably $45-50.
When you say:
To me this means the villain is frustrated because he is waiting to get a hand strong enough beat your stack-off range. Note, he didn't call the $200 with his flush draw. That's important: he is waiting.
Look, a lot of people play who play LLSNL are very aggressive preflop when bet sizes are small, ~8bb. But many of these people tighten way up OTT and OTR, when bet sizes reach ~60bb+. Some super aggressive players make a lot of money at LLSNL because regs don't respond correctly to this style of play:
- Players who are very aggressive PF are not always aggressive OTT/OTR.
Also, I prefer a bet of ~$65 OTT with your set, rather than over-betting $200.
You say:
Don't think like this. Poker is just one long session. You are not even for the session or going to be up $320 for the session. You are up in the session whatever you are up since you started playing poker on day one.
Back to the hand. Here is something to think about. Your villain is putting in $185 to win your $65, his $15, the $3 blinds, and the $6 limpers. That's a total of $185 to win $89. As a stand alone bet, his raise is +EV if you fold 68% of the time or more.
This is the key number. If he is bluffing you. And that's a BIG if. If he is bluffing you, you need to fold 68% of the time or more for his bluff to be "a good bluff".
Let's examine this. Let's look at a 3-betting ranges for you.
Range #1: {JJ+, AK}. This range contains 40 combos. If you only continue with {QQ+}, then you would be folding only 55% of the time. This means your villain is not exploiting you if you fold {AK, JJ}. This is very important if you think, or are afraid, villain would bluff any two cards here. Bluffs are only good, if you are willing to fold enough of your range to make the bluff +EV. In this case, if you are raising {JJ+, AK}. But 5-betting {QQ+}, a 4-bet bluff to $200 does not exploit you, in and of itself.
Additionally, if you only continue with {KK+}, then you are folding 70% of the time. This is much closer. This does allow the villain to bluff any two cards. However, the bluff has a stand alone EV of only $6.80.
Now, if you are 3-betting to $65 wider than {JJ+, AK}, and you are only continuing with {KK+}, then you are exploitable. Then your villain CAN profitably bluff to $200 with any two cards. HOWEVER, this villain is almost certainly not bluffing any two cards here. In fact, he probably only has value in this range.
So, anyway, as played I would fold. But I prefer a call PF. I like playing {JJ} heads up, in position, and against a range I CRUSH.
If I did 3bet, I would have sized smaller. Probably $45-50.
Also, I prefer a bet of ~$65 OTT with your set, rather than over-betting $200.
And remember, poker is only one long session.
Here is a challenge to you. Don't cash out. Only color up. See how long you can last like that.
It's like a challenge to live poker players.
Challenge accepted.
I have made a thread in poker goals/challenges.
Will get started on this tomorrow.
Going to start with 5k and just going to keep coloring up.
Thank you for the well thought out/informative post....
The detail is incredible.
