Dynamics: 1/3 NLHE live game at Caesar's in LV. Been at the game ~1hrs waiting for a 2/5 seat. UTG is a eurpean rec player that is on the tight side but playing well and appears atleast reasonably educated about the game. UTG1 is local low-limit reg tight-ish TAG. LJ is clear vacationer calling too much but not putting a lot of chips in pot without a hand. HJ is a nitty older reg. CO is unknown but seems to be playing tight-ish and fit-or-fold so far. BU is local req player and primary target/fish at table. Playing too many hands, overcommitting himself to pots, paying off when he shouldn't. He is stuck about 2 buy-ins. SB is main villain very young fellow and likely strongest opponent at this table. He is opening never limping, 3betting, and isolating weak players in good spots. Possibly trying a bit too hard opening too many hands but appears comfortable and generally educated about the game.
Villains: SB has $270 stack. UTG opener has $240 stack. LJ rec player $220 stack. BU fish $360 stack.
Hero: $740 stack in the SB. Frequencies slightly higher than usual due to good starting hands and situations. I likely look a bit overly-agro but not terribly out of line; all showdown hands have been strong hands. Running well, getting folds when I want and getting calls when I want. I stacked the fish early in the session and things have continued to go my way for the most part all session.

Preflop play: UTG RFI to 10. LJ rec calls. BU fish calls. SB main villain open limps. I flat with 44.
Preflop Analysis: Call seems standard. I love the price multiway with this hand versus mostly much weaker opponents. This obviously isn't the primary spot I'm wanting to analyze, but I am curious if anyone would ever squeeze here with this? Against this weaker field I don't think I ever would with this hand. Even against a different field where I expect folds and have more impact from my positional disadvantage by playing the hand out... I think squeezing here against a presumably tight/solid UTG open with 44 isn't ideal. Weigh in if you think otherwise.

Flop: Kd7c4d (pot 50)
Flop play: Checks to me, I bet 17 (~33% pot), folds around to SB, he x/r to 40. I flat.
Flop Analysis: Definitely want input on how people feel about the options here. I choose the donk-lead for a few reasons. Since the only agro player is SB has already checked and I'm expecting passive play to be predominant so a check-raise isn't guaranteed. I don't want everyone seeing a free turn, I want to give the original raiser an opportunity to raise me with his strong 1-pair holdings, and I want to get the pot-building started so if the fish wants to play I can more easily get him committed for stacks again. I also believe at this level people sometimes just don't know what to do with the donk lead or how to interpret it, and are going to think I'm betting a draw or a weak king or second pair from my SB hand. Thoughts?
Responding to the checkraise, this is the first spot most interesting. Do I want to flat here, or just try to escalate the pot and get stacks in ASAP before any scary turns kill the action? I can see arguments for both. But since this opponent isn't very deep from here out I felt I wouldn't have to try that hard to get stacks in as a call leaves him with about a 1.7:1 SPR. He is the most agro on the table and I felt was capable of check-raising with just top pair or with all his draws. I opted to flat to give him an opportunity to continue betting a weaker value hand or semi-bluffing a missed draw. Thoughts?

Turn: Kd7c4d3d (pot 130)
Turn play: Checks to me. SB checks to me. I bet 60. He check-raises all in for 220 total. Hero???
Turn analysis: In-game I was wondering if he just completed his draw and is trying to trap me, or if he is slowing down appropriately with a one-pair hand he check-raised me with. I think my hand is too valuable not to bet, and I bet 60. In retrospect I don't like this size; and I don't even know if I like betting at all here now. I'm leaning towards a smaller bet or maybe a check. Curious what others think on check vs bet and sizing.
But once in this spot now, and facing a check-raise all-in costing me 180 more for a 410 pot... Fold or call and why?

I assume you're in the BB not SB.

I'm 3bet shoving flop. Not really an overbet since a regular 3 bet size is half our stack.

In the future, don't need detailed information on every player in the pot, much less every player at the table. Only SB is relevant in this case. Stack sizes for some of the players is useful info though when considering whether to execute a preflop squeeze.

With 44, preflop is always a just call for me. Raising is bad as it would reopen the betting and you'd relinquish the possibility to see a flop if Villain 4bets.

Don't mind the flop lead. You're right that most players attribute it to a draw or weak top pair, so it's a bit sneaky. I would follow through sometimes by 3bet jamming over the top of Villain's raise. Call is also fine.

Turn is worst card in the deck bringing in the obvious straight and flush draws. After Villain checks he never has a straight and he rarely has a weak flush, so that's good. He's left with any top pairs he decided to x/r on flop, Ace high flushes (I see Axdd played a lot this way), and some weaker flushes he decided to trap with (these usually keep betting turn though).

You kind of screwed yourself with the turn bet, by betting an amount such that when Villain check-jams you almost have to fold. What hand does he have here that isn't a flush, specifically, the Ace high flush? I don't see how he can have the solitary Ace of diamonds, except for AdKx which he 3bets pre probably. You need 30% equity to call and only have 22% equity against a made flush.

Either bet a larger pot-committing amount on turn, or check turn. I dislike the idea of a small bet in position that will reopen betting and allow V to check-raise us off our equity.

Fold turn as played, and kick yourself for betting turn.

Given preflop action and description of Villain, we can probably rule out strong Kx combos, NFDs and 77, because he almost certainly would have raised these hands from the SB preflop. So when he check raises flop, what's he repping? We're repping what we actually have, a small FD, maybe TPGK(offsuit combos) or middle pair taking a stab.

V probably thinks he can blow us off TPKG and middle pair and he probably plans to fold his draws/air to a raise/jam. Many turns/runouts kill action, so how much more value can we get here?

I agree with Hitchens that it's a straight-up jam otf given V's stack size.

AP getting 2-1 I'm cry calling because I think he has equal amounts of air/TPGK as FDs.

Your description of SB says "He is opening never limping, 3betting, and isolating weak players in good spots"...and then he limps/completes from the SB???

I think making player judgements based on an hour of play can be a huge leak...cards often determine action over short periods of time, and sometimes players are just not themselves.

In any case, I would re-raise flop here...

And turn bet is a huge mistake...straight/flush both get there. The double check-raise is almost always a very strong hand...especially at low limits.

IMO it’s suicidal to squeeze with A9s-A2s at a loose passive table like this. Most of the players who just called the initial open preflop have all combos of AT—AQ,88-JJ in range. Some of them also have QQ/AK in range (it’s surprisingly common at 1/3 to only 3bet AA/KK). Squeezing preflop here with weak suited aces is lighting money on fire. I’d rather have a hand like AJo to squeeze here.

Anyway, I think it is not inconsistent with OPs read that SB is a good player that he can have a ton of nut flushes here given his line. In fact, preflop, SB probably has all A2s-A9s in preflop range, and the double check-raise is more or less entirely consistent with the nut flush and mostly inconsistent with every other hand. Best case scenario it’s neutral EV to call off river if you give villain a few combos of KxQd (but it’s pretty doubtful opponent is turning top pair into a bluff IMO— I rarely see that in live poker.)

I think this is a typo since the initial raise was for $10. I'm assuming SB is just calling the raise.

Pre is good. I'd raise flop and definitely not lead turn when both draws got there. As played, I think I'd reluctantly call. He's laying you about 31% when you're at about 23%. He doesn't need many bluffs for you to have the right odds to call... it's very close though and all comes down to assumptions about V.

I try and put him all in on the flop so we don’t have a tough choice like this on the turn. I would probably fold to his raise.

Disclaimer: I didn’t read all the details in the OP.

Flop – I like a X to the PFR here. His UTG open should have a lot of KX hands.

Once we bet small, and get X/R, I probably 3B more often than flatting. SB shouldn’t have any 2-pr hands, perhaps a couple of combos of K7? X/R range: 77/65s/A7dd/87dd/76dd?

Turn – completes both straight and flush draws, so I X back, thinking what worse hands are we getting value from a X/R range OTF.

AP, likely a fold vs the strongest opponent. Can’t think of a hand we are beating. Based on the read, I don’t see any KX over play in this spot.

Pre obv call

Flop bet is the stone worst thing you can do. Not only bc you can’t have KK but the next player (who can) is going to bet, and then 3 other people get to act before it’s your turn again. So you completely blew up the once a month free cash/dream spot.

AP flop - just gii otf
AP turn - lol check back and play riv IP. It’s the literal nut low turn and you’re betting? WHY. Nearly as brutal as the flop lead. You’re up against a flush now (unless SB is atrocious), so do the math and determine your best play.

Real bad, no defense for anything but pre.

Just think how bad you must’ve played the hand when you flop a set, get check-raised TWICE, and get forced into a max 0ev decision for your stack. Christ.

Yes this was exactly my sentiments exactly, and good motivation for posting. Humbly, I kicked myself in the groin in multiple ways with this hand.

I agree that an hour at a table isn't enough time to know anything for sure about any opponent. That being said, I have to profile them in some way and beyond a shadow of a doubt this was likely the most versed/strong/agro opponent. Sure, he might actually still suck and my read on him be way off, but have to do the best with what I can to categorize his play.

Betting the turn at all, much less for this size, feels like the worst of mistakes.

Choosing to get in when I am check raised on the flop seems like the obvious best play. In-game I'm expecting this opponent to be aggressive enough to barrel turn when he misses so I convinced myself a flat was fine, and I'd keep in any single-pair weak king hand he may be able to show up with here. in retrospect I should have just got it in, he likely would have called with his Axdd hand and just got a full double up.

Folding or calling to the checkraise on the turn can go either way I think. Price isn't good but isn't absolutely horrible and if villain can show up with any bluffs here seems like a crying call is in order. But, to the typical above average "thinking" 1-3 player my line here screams I am the one who has made a flush. My line screams I'm super strong, got there, and never folding. This "kid" should fully believe he has no fold equity and is getting paid. His check raise just screamed strength to me. He surely doesn't have AK or KQ with a diamond in his hand here, he would have squeezed pre most likely. Could he show up with something like Ad7s here? And pull a back-to-back check-raise semi bluff move on me? Just seems super unlikely... if he did, then nice job kid. I did find the fold... so for those of you that said "you played it bad and just gotta call the shove now"... add one more way I butchered the hand. (He did not show hand but reaction to the fold and chatter afterwards led me to believe he did indeed have the nut flush. I screwed everything else up on this hand, so maybe I am screwing that "read" up as well and I made a horrid fold)



For the flop bet, in addition to this input I got input that bet was fine/good, and input that bet makes sense but liked sizing up, etc. Basically both here and other places I discuss hands I got quite a bit of mixed input on the flop, so it is the one spot I'm not convinced of the right/best play. So let's beat the dead horse and get more input from folks...

So here is my thought process, weigh in with what parts make sense and what I might be missing here:
Generally in this spot (5-way small-stakes NLHE hand flopping a set on K high reasonably wet flop) I'd mix a check vs a bet. Mostly bet though in multi-way passive game. In this case I believe expecting the original raiser to cbet frequently is a poor assumption. He is a conservative tight player facing a multiway situation. He is likely only cbetting AA, a strong king, and maybe his nut flush draws. He would cbet KK and 77 at some frequency as well. Basically, all these hands he is continuing with or raising my donk lead anyway. I welcome the raises. If he has KK or 77, then congratulations; he is 200ish deep so he is just gonna get a courtesy double up. If he doesn't cbet, I presume the next two mostly-passive players are likely to check. If that happens this is what I felt would be a disaster - I would have failed to start building this pot and I let a completely free card drop on the turn.

What are peoples thoughts on why the check raise attempt on the flop is better? (Sure it is real juicy IF the original raiser cbets AND we get a couple callers in between... but if a cbet only happens 20% and then the perfect waterfall weak-calls afterward only happens a fraction of the time after that... is it really the most profitable line overall?) Am I under-estimating how often there will actually be a bet I can checkraise, and then I'm over-worried about the "disaster" of the flop checking through?

Thanks for taking the time giving all the input; working through it like this is definitively helpful for me.