Quote:
Originally Posted by Amanaplan
Just think how bad you must’ve played the hand when you flop a set, get check-raised TWICE, and get forced into a max 0ev decision for your stack. Christ.
Yes this was exactly my sentiments exactly, and good motivation for posting. Humbly, I kicked myself in the groin in multiple ways with this hand.
I agree that an hour at a table isn't enough time to know anything for sure about any opponent. That being said, I have to profile them in some way and beyond a shadow of a doubt this was likely the most versed/strong/agro opponent. Sure, he might actually still suck and my read on him be way off, but have to do the best with what I can to categorize his play.
Betting the turn at all, much less for this size, feels like the worst of mistakes.
Choosing to get in when I am check raised on the flop seems like the obvious best play. In-game I'm expecting this opponent to be aggressive enough to barrel turn when he misses so I convinced myself a flat was fine, and I'd keep in any single-pair weak king hand he may be able to show up with here. in retrospect I should have just got it in, he likely would have called with his Axdd hand and just got a full double up.
Folding or calling to the checkraise on the turn can go either way I think. Price isn't good but isn't absolutely horrible and if villain can show up with any bluffs here seems like a crying call is in order. But, to the typical above average "thinking" 1-3 player my line here screams I am the one who has made a flush. My line screams I'm super strong, got there, and never folding. This "kid" should fully believe he has no fold equity and is getting paid. His check raise just screamed strength to me. He surely doesn't have AK or KQ with a diamond in his hand here, he would have squeezed pre most likely. Could he show up with something like Ad7s here? And pull a back-to-back check-raise semi bluff move on me? Just seems super unlikely... if he did, then nice job kid.
I did find the fold... so for those of you that said "you played it bad and just gotta call the shove now"... add one more way I butchered the hand.
(He did not show hand but reaction to the fold and chatter afterwards led me to believe he did indeed have the nut flush. I screwed everything else up on this hand, so maybe I am screwing that "read" up as well and I made a horrid fold)
Quote:
Originally Posted by samo
... Flop – I like a X to the PFR here. His UTG open should have a lot of KX hands...
Quote:
Originally Posted by Amanaplan
...Flop bet is the stone worst thing you can do. Not only bc you can’t have KK but the next player (who can) is going to bet, and then 3 other people get to act before it’s your turn again. So you completely blew up the once a month free cash/dream spot.
For the flop bet, in addition to this input I got input that bet was fine/good, and input that bet makes sense but liked sizing up, etc. Basically both here and other places I discuss hands I got quite a bit of mixed input on the flop, so it is the one spot I'm not convinced of the right/best play. So let's beat the dead horse and get more input from folks...
So here is my thought process, weigh in with what parts make sense and what I might be missing here:
Generally in this spot (5-way small-stakes NLHE hand flopping a set on K high reasonably wet flop) I'd mix a check vs a bet. Mostly bet though in multi-way passive game. In this case I believe expecting the original raiser to cbet frequently is a poor assumption. He is a conservative tight player facing a multiway situation. He is likely only cbetting AA, a strong king, and maybe his nut flush draws. He would cbet KK and 77 at some frequency as well. Basically, all these hands he is continuing with or raising my donk lead anyway. I welcome the raises. If he has KK or 77, then congratulations; he is 200ish deep so he is just gonna get a courtesy double up. If he doesn't cbet, I presume the next two mostly-passive players are likely to check. If that happens this is what I felt would be a disaster - I would have failed to start building this pot and I let a completely free card drop on the turn.
What are peoples thoughts on why the check raise attempt on the flop is better? (Sure it is real juicy IF the original raiser cbets AND we get a couple callers in between... but if a cbet only happens 20% and then the perfect waterfall weak-calls afterward only happens a fraction of the time after that... is it really the most profitable line overall?) Am I under-estimating how often there will actually be a bet I can checkraise, and then I'm over-worried about the "disaster" of the flop checking through?
Thanks for taking the time giving all the input; working through it like this is definitively helpful for me.