1/2 $300 Max. Late Friday night/early Saturday.

Hero MAWG $450. In for $700. Got coolered earlier when flopping a middle set of 7's vs T9 on 972 board runner runner Ts.

V1 Crazy hippie lady $130 limps. Plays hands face up.
V2 MABG $500 raises to $10 OTB. He's on the tighter side but not a total nit.
Hero: Red 77 in BB calls. Considered 3-bet but decided to set mine due to V2 not having a wide open range.
V1 calls.


Flop: $30. 9s8c7c. V1 insta-jams for $120. V2 thinks for about 10 seconds and calls. Pot is $250 when it gets to us and if we call $370 with about $300 remaining. I don't like any option but thinking I need to jam or fold and calling is worst.

Flat pre is fine, especially closing the action.

I'm not sure I've ever folded a set on the flop (that's possibly a leak, but I doubt a big one), and I'm not going to here; I'm jamming and not really thinking twice about it. We're only in big trouble against better sets, and there's tons of 2p, draws and combo draws out there, v2 could even have an over pair, and even if its a made straight we still have some good outs.

I just stick it in. Think a reasonable rule of thumb is that bottom set OTF is kind of like KK pre in terms of folding. We're around the size point where we can think about folding in the grossest of situations but this doesn't qualify for me.

You could fold 77 on this board in some situations, I guess, as lots of stuff beats you and lots more stuff has great equity against you.

But it's 1/2, so all kinds of odd stuff could be afoot.

Also, the instajam is usually going to be weak. It takes time to process the fact that you flopped a straight and decide what to do. Or that you have top set, but a straight is possible and there are a million draws.

There are a bunch of hands the button could have. If he could have JTs, why not T9 or 98? QcJc KcTc QcTc AcTc. 9cXc. TT JJ. Perhaps AA or KK, though you'd expect them to think a bit. Maybe any NFD. Maybe any FD. Maybe 66.

At risk of false precision on these things, I'd also expect him to think a bit longer with really strong hands like a straight, 88 or 99. Does he want to suck you in, or just get it in now and avoid difficult decisions when a club or straightening card comes? He also has to kind of process the fact that this lady just donk jammed for 4x pot. So I'd kind of lean to him having a hand like T9 or TT, which isn't the nuts but clearly can't fold and has plenty of good turns cards.

Only way this is not a fold is if v2 is making bad calls on the flop, specifically with overpairs. He really needs combo draws, sets, and straights at a minimum to call. If he is calling all his overpairs then probably jam as you will at least win the side pot a maybe 2/3 of the time.

I know you can be beating v1. But if you work out the mutliway equities, and figure she probably has JTo pure, there are just way too many combos she has that have you screwed. Between v1 and v2 having straights and higher sets, you are pretty cooked. If v2 doesn't call his overpairs, you are probably sub 25% equity.

This is kind of tough, because V2 being a tighter player doesn't necessarily preclude him from overvaluing his premium pocket pairs postflop. He may just think that a premium overpair is a 120 dollar hand and not really understand the pot odds he needs to call v1 or the range she has. On the other hand, if he does understand all that, you are cooked.

I think you need to think about some of villain's postflop tendencies to make a decision here. As a base line, I think a tighter player will likely overvalue his overpair and not fold to a shorter stack as often. But the tighter villain is postflop and the more capable he is of folding big hands, the more you should consider folding.

This was my exact thinking. V2 should not be calling with overpairs except maybe TT. I was dreading jamming because if V2 overvalued KK for example he'd probably fold to my jam and while this would be marginally +EV vs. any holding not 88/99 from V1 the alternative is I'm drawing dead if V2 has 99. I think the recent almost 200BB disaster with 77 previously clouded my thinking towards risk aversion.

Results:

Hero tanks for a long time (which is very rare for me) and folds.
V1 had Tc9c. V2 had KK. Board ran out 5d 5h and I wanted to vomit.

People who I would describe as playing face up don't rip 4x pot with Tc9c there. Like given that description I wondered if she'd rip 99.

But given this new data if we assume she does this with Tc9c,AcTc,Ac9c,JT,65,99,88 we have less equity than vs. JT/65 pure. We are only ok for the main pot if V2 only has overpairs and we really want KK to stack off for the rest (and KK might make a bad call vs V1 but it's far from obvious he does so again when you reshove).

This is results oriented thinking.

I don’t see what the problem is. We’re likely flipping with the hippie and usually have the pfr crushed so let’s go all in.

Reading responses I’m surprised. I was excited to get it in but maybe I like to flip too much?

I'd like to politely request a math pot odds understanding for this spot from someone who knows things. I don't really understand how to calculate pot odds and equity needed when there will be a side pot like this.

Main 30+120+120, 120 to call = 120/(120+120+120+30) equity needed = 30.77% needed against both players.

Side 450-10-120 = 320 behind with BTN. With 0$ side pot, does this mean we need 50.01% against BTN if he were to jam over the top of the hippie woman?

With FD out there I would have jammed but if it was a rainbow board I would fold. Also depends a lot on the Vs. Anyone semi-competent I would also call or jam.

Perhaps this is a leak of mine, but I can't ever remember folding a set on the flop.

That was results oriented feeling. I'm still not entirely sure what the best play would be but the more I think about it I think jam because I'm pretty sure V2 would jam with a better set here due to the drawy nature of the board. Moves his range weight more to AKcc and overpairs.

Hero made some assumptions about Vs ranges. Those assumptions were wrong, so I don't think it's being results oriented to accept that and learn from it.

To toot my own horn, I wasn't far off in saying the open jammer was on the weaker side, having snap jammed. Very rare that someone would flop a set on such a wet board and not think. Same for a straight. You at least want to double check that you really do have a straight. And even if she thought about it, how often to people donk jam flopped straights?

And that V2 had a hand he thought he couldn't fold, but wasn't nutty. He was actually a bit weaker than I suggested, but he had the same basic thought process. "Well, I can't fold KK to this lady. but I'm not in love with this hand either, so I call."

Even if you don't buy into the timing tells, it's 1/2 against recs and we aren't that deep so stuff happens. This isn't an OMC check raising the river all in for $400. You don't want to be folding sets for 60bbs.

You shouldn't ever be folding here, for the sole reason that, from the description, V2 isn't going to be tricky enough to smooth call with nutted hands to try and reel you into the turn. The more likely scenario with hands like JT, 99, or 88 is that they would raise to deny equity for Tc9c/AcKc/QcJc type hands. The only hand that could smooth behind V1 and not worry/care about what you do is JcTc.

Just based off of the action, you can discount him having better sets and a straight. With only one combo of JcTc, you have to shove here. I'd be more inclined to give him AcTc/Ac9c/Tc/9c.

Besides, this is 1/2. Just ship and pray.

Well, the fact that v2 has KK means that we should have jammed, although we could not have known that.

The fact that v1 had a combo draw doesn't mean her range is weak here. With KK V2 only has 35% equity vs V1's exact hand with no club, and 38% equity with one club. He needed 44% equity to call before factoring in hero.

If V1 understands how strong combo draws are, then I would say she played her hand pretty face up. She is ahead of everything in equity except JT, T6, sets, and 6c5c. And with a guy calling over pairs? She is absolutely printing here.

If you give villain JTs, 65s, two pairs and all the TcXc, then 77 isn't even a call for v2, only 99, 88, straights, and combo draws. And vs that range, 77 has sub 30% equity in the side pot, sub 16% equity in the main pot.

Given the incomplete information about villains' ranges, hero's fold was not terrible.