Game - live 1/2 crown Melbourne.

Game type- absolutely crazy all due to one villian. All other villain s are recreational players and I would assume unstudied. I'll just focus on this one villian.

30 yo male with no idea how to play. Opening hands like 83s for $25 ( one green chip) . Calling down a pair of deuces on AJQ710 boards. Randomly 3bet shoving 45s .
4bet shoving 95s . Opening 44 for $75 . Could not fold any pair and if he had called the blinds he just would not fold anything. I'm talking calling down all streets with 5 high.
Here was getting alot of action and getting lucky alot. Rivering straights and nasty 2 pair cracking aces. So I'm thinking to myself first of all, thank-you Lord for sending this fish to my table. I'm sure the other players were pretty wrapped as well. However they were doing alot of calling with hands like kj q10 and pocket pairs. Which are all so far ahead of his range. If a low flop came and he bet they would show their 88 and whinge and fold. Then he would show 73o and scoop then they would say angrily I should of called. This went on quite alot. So I say to myself if he opens huge again which he was every hand and it folds to me I'll open shove my stack with 77+ A8s+and any two broadways. And fold the rest. My first shove was 88 with 110bb and I doubled . My second shove was Aks 240bb and I doubled again. My last shove was A10s with abit over 300bb he covered and I lost to a pair of nines to his 92o . Cooler or bad shove ?

Obviously if he's calling with ATC, ATss is a good shove.

Me, I slow down against these guys when I get deep because it tilts me to quad up and then lose.

You got called by 92o but then you lost.... so obviously terribly bad shove. Quit poker is your best move here.

If you have a lunatic like this who builds a big stack, he is very dangerous. It seems you had to double up on him 3 times to stack him. Let's say you run this 3 hands in a row and are a 2-1 favorite each time (something like AK vs. two non paired low cards), it is more likely he will stack you before you can win all three times. In fact, he's a 2-1 favorite at stacking you.

True, but, every hand is also its own entity, and we are here to make money, we want that edge, we have optimal BRM, we are ahead, the last 15 times we stacked him can be irrelevant in a way

To add to my comment, once you double up one time, it's probably better to see flops before committing, unless you have a big over pair that is a much better chance than 2-1.

Cant go wrong shippin it max value hehe

This is simply a bankroll consideration, as long as your AT is ahead of his range (which it is). Take 65-35 every day, all day.

All day e'ery day optimal brm all the way?

You guys are thinking like this is now poker, it's not. It's metagame strategy. Crazy V is not open shoving pre, he's making bad opens. Once you have a decent stack, call and play poker when you have very good but not super premium hands. As described, V never folds post flop. That is his weakness. By shoving over the top, you will more likely go broke well before him if he already has a big enough stack to double you up more 3 or more times.

To re-iterate, lets say he has 150 units and you have 15. You agree to have AK and him 92 every hand all-in preflop. I would rather be him.

AK vs. 92 == 66% favorite. You need to win 3 times to get a bigger stack and can't lose once. He is going to stack you and have an even bigger stack 72% of the time.

.66 * .66 * .66 = .28.

If you have AA vs. his 92 (85-15%), it tilts in your favor to win 3 times in a row to over 60%. If you have AK/AQ and flop top pair against a random hand, it's the same 85%. 15%.

But...he calls 92o

So you re telling us that 72% of the time our EV is -15 and 28% our EV is 120?

Can you solve 120x0.28-15x0.72=?

Hey, cool, would you lookat that... The maths! In case you dont have a calculator handy, thats +22.8!! #pileitin

That is fine, Donk, but this is not tournament poker, this is a cash game. If we can rebuy (and we can, if, as I said above, our bankroll allows it), and our stated goal is to make money (which it is, it's not actually to stack this guy, although that might be a side effect of our goal), then we need to take the AK every time vs 92, even all in preflop.

To take your "metagame considerations" out further, if we can not profitably shove AK vs 92 every time, all the time, then poker itself is not profitable.

All of this is irrelevant. This is a cash game. It doesn't matter if we take a 65/35% spot 20x today against this guy or if we take it 20x over the next month vs different players, they're all independent.

The particular place your thinking is going wrong is here:
Since this is a cash game and our units reflect how much we have at stake (ie. he is risking more than us) we would still much rather be the player with 15 units, because that player is only putting up $15 vs the other players $150, therefore needing to win 9% of the time in order to break even. To bust him you need to win 4 times in a row, which will happen ~18% of the time ie. twice as often as we need. In fact we will win much more than 18% of the time because after 3 wins in a row (27% of the time) we will have $120 and he will have $45, and from there it's much less likely that he comes back and beats us because with 35% per flip the chance of him winning 3 in a row is only 4%).

Basically we go broke very often, but when we win we win a ton which makes up for it and then some.

So, just some obv things no one seems to be pointing out;
1) a villain that opens every hand does not necessarily make every call
2) the best way to exploit a lunatic villain who is hyper aggressive IS NOT WITH SUPER LOOSE AGGRESSION there are some times when fighting fire with fire is a good idea. This is not one of them.
3) to beat a maniac you simply CALL MORE OFTEN, and raise LESS often. That's the formula. You shouldn't try to "beat them at their own game" you should just call them with a wider range and call them down more post flop. You don't wanna start ramming and jamming on them because a) it lets them fold their bluffs and b) you end up coolering yourself too much. Playing more of a stationy game vs these guys lets you win more vs their bluffs and lose less when they actually have it
4) he's not the only player at the table and that obv matters.

I play a lot of small stakes HU NLH online and i run into these aggrotards fairly often. It is not unheard of at Nl20 and lower to find a guy who will just rip it in every hand 75bb effective in the HUSnG's. So I did some math one day with pokerstove (it was a while ago)
I sat down and gave villain ATC and then did the entire thing again giving villain the top 50% and did a third "weighted" range analysis and figured out what hands I could call it off with pre-flop against a guy who was open shoving or re-shoving almost every hand.

I don't remember the exact numbers and I do know i was not willing to settle for a 52% equity share against a guy who would let me do much better than that. So, maybe you think you should take that kinda flip in a cash game or maybe you think your time is worth a bit more than that and/or you hate huge swings. But this is what i came up with (and it was very suprising)

I needed at least 77+, KJs+, KQo+,ATs+, AJo to feel comfortable getting it in against a guy who moved in his first three or four hands in a row. A8 is prob not as great as you think against ATC. Same with QTo, QJs, and KT.

I think you have the pocket pair part of this range pretty good, it was suprising to me just how good a pair of sevens or 8's does against a random or nearly random range and it was suprising to me just how good A8s and KT/QJs ARE NOT against a super wide range.

I wish i could give you the exact math but I'd be lying if i tried to. I'm thinking i prob wouldve taken something like 60% and prob a bit lower. Maybe 58% if i had to guess.

Just for whatever it's worth

IMO this is not good because if the villain is so terrible we have our biggest edge edge after the flop. With 88, it sounds like his calling range would include QJss and above which is a flip. That is not optimal against such a horrible player. I would be happy with slightly ahead spots like that against a better player but against the dream player to play against the best way to protect your stack and exploit the weakness of the villain is by playing well post flop.

If we are settling for flips against the weakest opponent we play why play?

Donovan, That is very interesting info for me ty loads

And that may be ,but these are extreme situations, and if youre offered max value, you should take it. You will never get it post after he bricks

Its also irrelevant when he piles it preflop himself

#extremetimesCallforextremeMeasures

I love the fact that you're willing to take these calculated risks. When you have ATs and villain calls your shove with 93o, you're almost a 70% favourite.

Here is the thing about whales and spewtards: they come in with a limited number of buyins. If you sit around all day waiting for QQ+, they'll be bust before you get there. You need to be taking these 70-30 flips against spewtards in order to make the most profit possible, since they'll be soon gone if you wait too long. And what's the worst that's going to happen? You lose a 70-30 flip and now the whale doubles up? That's great! Now you can rebuy and he's got even more to lose!

So don't stress about these flips. As long as you've got the bankroll, these are great spots to get your stack in against spewtards that shove ATC.