Just looking for some feedback on this bluff spot - been having some debate with a few friends if it is a good spot.

1/2NL at a casino. Villain is older dude in his 50s. Pretty nitty so far. Will limp some pots because this table has been so passive, but when its raised almost always folds. Likewise, typically folds in multiway pots postflop unless he gets a good piece. Has raised big once or twice pre and took it down preflop.

Hero is 25yo white male. Been pretty tight so far as well because I've been absolutely card dead. The few pots ive won I have not had to showdown.

OTTH:[/U]
CO Hero $400
BTN Villain $350
9 handed, all folds to Hero in cutoff with 86

Hero raises to $12

I figure with this passive table this isn't a bad spot to pick up the blinds and my tight image is going to let me win a lot of flops when I do get a caller.

Villain on BTN thinks for a couple of seconds and raises to $30.
SB, BB Fold.

When villain 3bets here his range is pretty much JJ+,AQ+,AK+. I am getting a little better then 2:1 and we are both decently deep so I think calling here is alright. I think I have a good handle on this player type and there are a lot of boards I can get this villain to fold with his capped range.

Hero calls

Flop ($57) comes QT9 (effective stacks $320)

Hero checks, Villain bets $45, Hero raises to $120.

We are double gutted with backdoor spades. This board hits our range pretty well and I don't think it is great for villain. We have all the sets and two pairs and the straight. If he calls, my plan is to shove almost any non A or K unless villain gave something away that made me think he wasn't folding. My reasoning for shoving turn was that he may be reluctant to give up just yet to our flop raise with AA or AQ, but I think will fold those on turn. When he has KK or QQ we should still have somewhere between 15-30% equity depending if its a spade. Obviously on the turn he's going to be getting decent odds on my shove, but being live and being against a non-reg type player I think odds are less of a concern because villains usually think of dollar amounts like "do I really want to call off my last $200 dollars". I also think that it helps that I have a pretty tight image so far.

Thoughts on the play and/or sizing?

The problem with calling pre in this spot is that while villain has a narrow and defined range, we're OOP and can rarely capitalize on that. Honestly though, it's not like calling the 3bet is going to lose you a massive amount of money or anything; it's a pretty small 3bet, but preflop is a pretty clear fold. We're not even that deep relatively because of how large your raise size was. SPR will only be $320:$63 or ~5:1.

As played... I mean we have a pretty good candidate for a bluffing hand... but this is one of the problems with initially calling pre. We just don't have the FE we need on a lot of boards because of his really strong and narrow preflop range. Even nits get super attached to KK-AA and won't fold (which is why calling here pre with a pp is much better than 86s).

It's a "good" spot to bluff, we can credibly rep 99, TT, QQ and we'd want to x/r those, we have basically the perfect bluffing hand, but we're just gonna get called down a huge % of the time and when we do hit 4 of our outs, it puts a 4card straight out there and that's like the one spot where he might fold AA, but he makes a better straight with KK. Also he bet close to pot size on the flop which really leans his range towards AQ or better.

Flame away but I just x/f flop as played

Pretty spot on imo.

Pretty much explains everything.

Why are you raising 6x in the CO op??!

Thanks for the reply. I think the biggest problem with the play is just being OOP. I do think most of the time we do need to be deeper, but at the time I was reading most of the players at the table really well and that included this villain. I thought I could pretty much play perfect poker against him here postflop and so that's what kind of pushed me towards a call. So as played, basically the only variable that changes this play from +EV to -EV is our fold equity. Generally at these stakes you're right its pretty tough to get people to let go of overpairs or AK/AQ, but I think you can do it a decent amount with two subsets of players - thinking regs and nits. I think the middling rec/fish players this would be a bad play against but I actually think the other types fold more then people think...everyone salivates at the idea of hitting their set and getting stacks against bad players that won't fold overpairs but personally I've found it doesn't happen quite at the rate I'd expect. And yeah the SPR is lower than it should be to move someone off, but I don't think we should discount the fact that most casino players don't take SPR into account and instead just look at the straight dollar amount being bet. Not to mention, I still have about 30% equity against his calling range, so I don't actually need him to fold a TON to make a profit. Anyway, in conclusion I think you're pretty close to right generally speaking. I think this spot with reads was still +EV but can appreciate that its probably pretty marginal overall without being deeper and IP.


Minatorr:

That was the standard open for the table. I will sometimes do $10 in better positions, but I just did $12 out of habit.

Fold pre

I don't mind the initial raise, but once you get 3bet it is time to admit your hand was in the cookie jar and fold. Suited one gappers just don't play well oop against a tight range.

As played, you have a hidden hand where he isn't going to sweat a 7 coming on the turn. The problem is that if you get a J, you hit your straight but he hits a higher one with AK. With only 4 clean outs, I'd give up at this point.

Fold preflop

I doubt even Phil Ivey could make the call 3bet pre +EV. But I agree its marginal.

No not a good board to bluff vs a nit, maybe we can fold villain off ak or jj or rep a straight if a k or 8 comes on the turn but hero's fold equity is unlikely to be high enough for this play to be profitable

Villain is never folding aa or aq on blank turn, you are just not deep enough to get him to lay down big hands.. he has all ready put in more than 20% of his stack, he will need to fold very frequently to make up for how badly hero is getting chips in when called (or jammed on)

Some good stuff in this thread, first reply pretty much nailed it.
Your open is fine,
Fold to the 3!, being oop in a 3! Pot with basically trash is just going to suck, it's going to be difficult to get money in when we are big and if we want to credibly rep something we are going to be c/r the flop which is going to be getting big$$$ in the middle and we are having to comit to bluff shoving the turn alot of times also..... By calling the 3! Here and trying to make this profitable we are commiting to bluffing our whole stack.... For $12 against the 1-2 player pool ill take the hit and keep the varience down.