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good or bad bluff? good or bad bluff?

09-28-2022 , 03:17 AM
Villian is a 40-50 year old Japanese man. Fairly loose preflop in terms of both opens and calling other peoples opens but this isn't uncommon in our game. Ive seen him make big laydowns as well as big calls. Solid losing player overall.

1/3
$600 effective

EP opens 20
MP calls
V in SB calls
H in BB raises to 120 with QQ
folds around to SB who calls

$280
K J 7

SB x
H bets 80
SB calls

$440
K J 7 8

SB x
H all in 400

T9 double gutter, 78s and maybe J8s got there but I can't always be worried about V having the nuts. He can't have AK, I block KQ. I sized this to be a 2 street bluff but this has the consequence of giving weak pair / draw hands the possibility of peeling one off for cheap although I think V was going to call any reasonable flop bet and I wanted to leave a nice size for the turn jam.

Last edited by AAJTo; 09-28-2022 at 03:31 AM.
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09-28-2022 , 04:10 AM
I don't like it at all. Your hand is to strong to turn it into a bluff. Why not xb, call turn? I'm not super concerned that people end up double barreling AT when I xb here and assume river bets to be honest most of the time.
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09-28-2022 , 06:14 AM
I hate it. Why can't he have AK? I reckon AK is a big part of his range here. He can also definitely turn up with AA/KK/JJ here. As soon as he calls the flop I'm done with this hand, if I'm even betting the flop to begin with.

I'm guessing a 120 raise is pretty huge in a 1/3 game. People aren't cold calling that from the SB with random hands, not even solid losing players.

Edit: he didn't cold call, that changes things. Puts his range in another perspective. I still think he can certainly have AK or JJ, but AA/KK becomes a lot less likely. A bit of 77 enters the mix though, and some KQs/KJs. It's still a suicidal bluff imo, you're only making worse hands fold and he doesn't have a lot of those. He might fold KQs here, which is two combos.
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09-28-2022 , 07:16 AM
This isn't really a bluff. What hands can the villain have that can beat QQ but loses to a pair of kings?
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09-28-2022 , 07:19 AM
Do not like. You have showdown value, you’re likely value owning yourself. What better hands fold?

Check the turn and get to showdown.
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09-28-2022 , 07:58 AM
tough spot for sure. I like the cbet as you should be betting most of our range here and really QQ is one of the worst hands we show up with here that misses. When he calls alarm bells are going off for me. given his small blind position sets, AKo, etc etc are all in his range. I'm fine discounting AA, KK, but AKo I see from certain players here. Also JJ, 77. I think we check back and see the river hoping to get to showdown but willing to fold depending on his bet size on the river.
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09-28-2022 , 08:53 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by AAJTo
He can't have AK
Why? That’s such an odd assumption. He called a 40-BB 3-bet from the SB; AK is a HUGE part of the average rec player’s range here.

I don’t like this shove at all, he’s never going to fold a hand you’re beating, AK is a snap-call.

Quote:
He can't have AK, I block KQ.
Ok, yet you keep calling your bet a “bluff”, which means you think you don’t have the best hand now. So what hand do you think Villain has that
A) has you beat, and
B) will fold to a shove?

KT exactly?

So confused here.
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09-28-2022 , 09:41 AM
V would have raised pre with AK.

Maybe a mistitle of the hand but I guess the better line would be 150 flop, x turn to induce a bluff we call on the river?

V has a wide range here idk how someone can double call from the sb and have a big hand.
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09-28-2022 , 09:58 AM
While you are jamming for less than pot, I'm asking myself why you wouldn't have bet more on the Flop in order to make the Turn bet more appealing to call 'for value'. What did the 8 change 'that much' that you need to jam now? You'd never jam 88 here, eh?

In this spot Kx is the same as QQ, so you're really only getting called by better and you could still win a lot of Showdowns on this Board. This might work better if the Turn were to check through, but it's still less than pot .. not sure if V is that aware of the spot. GL
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09-30-2022 , 12:58 PM
Aight so not so much interested in this hand and I was really looking for better lines I could have taken cause I knew afterwards I didnt play this very good. V did end up having KQo and mucking so my wording of the hand was results oriented and I consider myself lucky he had 1 of 2 hands I could have actually bluffed him out with.

I range V on broadway cards, Axs, 22-TT and sc's and suited 1-2 gappers.

Is the 150 cbet > x turn > bluff catch river the best line here? I really hate giving a free card to someone with such a wide range but he is capable of jamming river when turn goes x x.
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09-30-2022 , 08:46 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by AAJTo
Aight so not so much interested in this hand and I was really looking for better lines I could have taken cause I knew afterwards I didnt play this very good. V did end up having KQo and mucking
I mean this is probably the "optimal line" as I think everyone else (incl. me) just loses money here. The problem, for you, is if V ever realizes he needs to call.

Quote:
Originally Posted by AAJTo
I range V on broadway cards, Axs, 22-TT and sc's and suited 1-2 gappers.

Is the 150 cbet > x turn > bluff catch river the best line here? I really hate giving a free card to someone with such a wide range but he is capable of jamming river when turn goes x x.
Range is very villain dependant, as V's become more solid they "should" realize they can't call your 3bet with 22-88 (maybe higher) are probably losing OOP. But then I've seen long time regs. just shrug call 33 here.
If V ever has suited 1-2 gappers I'd drop the word "solid" from your description.

I might check flop, as it's one of the few clear value checks. If not I'd range bet roughly the size you did and then check not sure how much I'm losing. I don't think there should be much worry of giving free cards.
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09-30-2022 , 10:17 PM
Quote:
If V ever has suited 1-2 gappers I'd drop the word "solid" from your description.
I meant hes a donator to the game not that hes a solid player. Is that why I people are saying AK is a big part of his range when I said he couldnt have this?

Quote:
Originally Posted by illiterat
I mean this is probably the "optimal line" as I think everyone else (incl. me) just loses money here. The problem, for you, is if V ever realizes he needs to call.

Range is very villain dependant, as V's become more solid they "should" realize they can't call your 3bet with 22-88 (maybe higher) are probably losing OOP. But then I've seen long time regs. just shrug call 33 here.

I might check flop, as it's one of the few clear value checks. If not I'd range bet roughly the size you did and then check not sure how much I'm losing. I don't think there should be much worry of giving free cards.
A J T 9 7 are all bad cards for me (maybe A not as bad as the others)
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10-03-2022 , 08:49 AM
KQo is a fold on the Turn? You did say he makes laydowns and perhaps the 80 to 400 line is what 'saved' you here.

It's important to know what stories your opponents are 'willing' to believe. We have one Reg who absolutely loathes paying off flushes .. so we can use this against them whether in position or not, which can 'add' to our viable outs when considering Flop spots. GL
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10-03-2022 , 09:34 AM
It's a bad bluff first and foremost because QQ has showdown value. It would have been a far better bluff if you did this with AQ.

Also, it's a 3bet pot in which you made a huge 3bet pre, so while you can't completely preclude that he has some suited connectors (not because it would have been a good call, but because people make bad calls like that), villain's preflop calling range vs your 3bet should be mostly strong A highs and pairs.

So when you double barrel QQ there, what worse hands are you forcing to fold? If anything this is more of a thin value bet, or more likely a value own, because you want villain to make a hero call with something like AJ, TT, or 99. But those hands fold in all likelihood.
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10-03-2022 , 09:36 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by answer20
While you are jamming for less than pot, I'm asking myself why you wouldn't have bet more on the Flop in order to make the Turn bet more appealing to call 'for value'. What did the 8 change 'that much' that you need to jam now? You'd never jam 88 here, eh?
He should jam 88 here, why not? He set up an SPR of 2, it's a two street hand.
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10-03-2022 , 11:08 AM
By math, yes, a jam is fine. I was leaning towards the live 'why so much' line of going from 80 to 400 for an 8. You've made a great point and the 8 does fill the role of making the Board very wet so this could be viewed across the full range of hands .. 'go away', bluff, semi-bluff and nutty.

But the OP makes my point for me ..

V has a wide range here idk how someone can double call from the sb and have a big hand.

If this is the case then why blow him off whatever with a pot bet? Lots of live Players don't realize their stack is in peril until it's too late and then they are forced to call it off.

While definitely exploitable .. seemingly polarized 'stop n go' shoves in my Player pool are only rewarded with calls from better. It's a pride thing .. "I'm not paying this dude off if he wants to play like that." Thus I'm not shoving 88 here as often as most would think to. GL
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10-03-2022 , 11:34 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by answer20
V has a wide range here idk how someone can double call from the sb and have a big hand.

If this is the case then why blow him off whatever with a pot bet? Lots of live Players don't realize their stack is in peril until it's too late and then they are forced to call it off.

While definitely exploitable .. seemingly polarized 'stop n go' shoves in my Player pool are only rewarded with calls from better. It's a pride thing .. "I'm not paying this dude off if he wants to play like that." Thus I'm not shoving 88 here as often as most would think to. GL
At no point am I saying my play was good. I post questionable hands on 2+2 to become a better player.

My logic was

1) I know V has a wider range in this spot compared to the average person who is going to call $100 oop
2) I know V is going to call with pretty much anything better than a gutshot on the flop
3) In the moment I just wanted to make him fold because of 1 and 2

I didn't know if a 150 cbet into jam turn would be a better play then a cbet > x > bluff catch cause there are so many scare cards. (This was the thought process I had after the hand not during)
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10-03-2022 , 12:32 PM
I'm by no means a good-bad guy .. I will play the same hand many different ways. Based on your post above you played the 'right' way. You got some value on the Flop and then you wanted him to go away.

We bet for value/protection or to deny equity. In this case here you are denying as much equity as you can to discourage a call. If that's the plan, then you executed and the rest is up to the V. My question would be was this your plan before or after you bet the 80 on the Flop?

I can flip your #1 and #2 around to take a position as to why we bet more on the Flop to encourage more calls on the Turn. It all comes down to the goal .. if your goal in a future hand is to stack a V, then IMO you need to bet more on the Flop.

Right/Wrong and good/bad are all relative to Hero's short term and long term goals. If your goal was to stack him, then I think you played it wrong. If your goal was to get some thin value on a connected Board and then apply max pressure to a wide range, then I think you played it right.

You have now mentioned bluff catching (maybe I missed it earlier?) In your OP you mention big laydowns and big calls, but no mention of bluffs or how this Player seeks value, so it's hard to know if this Player will see your Turn check as weak. IMO you will have to be willing to call off more often on Rivers that connect after checking Turn than you would be willing to fold to if you had bet the Turn and been led into. Definitely easier to check this Turn in position since you know you will have an opportunity to bet the River if checked to. When OOP and the V doesn't bluff it's too late, you're at Showdown. GL
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10-04-2022 , 10:08 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by AAJTo
V would have raised pre with AK.

without knowing more about the V, you can't assume that. Lot's of players in 1/2 and 1/3 will only call with AK. We know that V is an overall losing player so we can't assume he's going to do what a good player would do in all situations.



Your read of this guy should be more fleshed out. How often does he 3!? That's a really important part of my reads and measure of a V. I see LOTS of 1/2 players who have to have KK+ to 3!.
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10-04-2022 , 12:00 PM
Any reads on the guy opening in EP to 7x? Cuz the nittier the player, the more I would possibly consider just flatting here (in spite of the sizeable dead money). 3betting just to face a 4bet to fold our equity would suck, especially this deep. But I'm quite passive preflop the deeper we get. Anyhoo, we managed to isolate the fish and setup a trivial stack off SPR with an overpair, so awesome result.

I'm either/or on the flop. There are some gutshots (that we block) and some A highs that we're fine protecting our equity against, plus this guy seems a little stationish, so I'm fine with a small bet. But I'd also be fine with a check back, especially since any bet leaves us with just a <PSB left.

Um, the turn shove is most definitely not a bluff unless we think someone is somehow folding TP on the turn with just a PSB left (which they're not, imo). I mean, I guess you could argue we're committed against a loose player and so the bet is purely for equity protection (and we might be committed by any river so might as well get it all in).

Overall I'm torn on the hand postflop. With this SPR against a loose player I think you can argue to get it all in by the turn for equity protection. But I think you could also argue for just checking it down. Bluffing isn't part of the equation in this hand, imo.

GcluelessNLnoobG
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