5/5, 900 effective
Villain is a snug young Asian TAG. Played with for about 3 hours and haven't seen him get out of line.
Hero with A
K
in UTG opens to 25
UTG+1 and Villain in MP1 calls, everyone else folds
Flop (85): A
J
9
Hero bets 45, both players call
Turn (220): 3
Hero bets 145, only MP1 calls
River (510): K
Hero? 380 effective behind
I think if Villain flopped 2pair, set, or combo draw, he would be raising flop or turn. When he flats 2x, I think most of his range consists of weak TP (A8-AT), and maybe some weaker non-nut FDs like Q
8
, 8
7
, 7
6
, etc. Also if I jam OTR, I can't really rep many busted draws that he would bluffcatch with, since QT and club draws all get there.
Would it be better to check and maybe induce villain to turn weak TP into a bluff vs. going for thin value here?