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Go for Paper Thin Value OTR? Go for Paper Thin Value OTR?

08-07-2018 , 12:20 PM
Let's think it out.

If we raise the flop, can we expect to get a lot of action from worse? For sure on the flop. Any pair + gut hand is going to continue against us making it 50 here. The one thing that sucks about raising is that if he has, like, QT, this is often an info bet and he plans on folding. While I like raising flops when they can (and should) give us action from worse, folding Tx no redraw is actually defensible here, so keeping ranges wide has merit.

As played, how is this thin value at all? Why would he take a donk, check-call line with 2 pair plus? What hand in his range is helped by this river card (I guess 54 is). But we need to be shoving it in here. Let him figure out how to have kicker problems.

As far as results (because let's face it, you're never posting this hand if he doesn't show 54o because you would never question the river bet), who cares? He called the turn w/ a bad OESD where the 8 was completely tainted, and diamonds are also dicey. And you value cut yourself hard. Why would you bet $75 here ever, especially if you're just going to pay off the last $43? So you make sure the majority of times where you're good, you only win $75, but the rare times he has you beat, you lose $118? You're value cutting yourself hard. This has to, 150%, be a jam on the end. Like the player type that will peel 54o on T76dd-2 for 70% pot isn't going to fold Tx/87/etc for all in (but call for 75). The reason they fold the river is because they peel turn here with 54o (which means they also peel like K9, 85, etc). So yeah, when the river is mostly a brick and you have 60% pot left behind, you go all in for value unless you have a very good reason not to.

Last edited by jdr0317; 08-07-2018 at 12:27 PM.
Go for Paper Thin Value OTR? Quote
08-07-2018 , 12:56 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by jdr0317
Let's think it out.

If we raise the flop, can we expect to get a lot of action from worse? For sure on the flop. Any pair + gut hand is going to continue against us making it 50 here. The one thing that sucks about raising is that if he has, like, QT, this is often an info bet and he plans on folding. While I like raising flops when they can (and should) give us action from worse, folding Tx no redraw is actually defensible here, so keeping ranges wide has merit.

As played, how is this thin value at all? Why would he take a donk, check-call line with 2 pair plus? What hand in his range is helped by this river card (I guess 54 is). But we need to be shoving it in here. Let him figure out how to have kicker problems.

As far as results (because let's face it, you're never posting this hand if he doesn't show 54o because you would never question the river bet), who cares? He called the turn w/ a bad OESD where the 8 was completely tainted, and diamonds are also dicey. And you value cut yourself hard. Why would you bet $75 here ever, especially if you're just going to pay off the last $43? So you make sure the majority of times where you're good, you only win $75, but the rare times he has you beat, you lose $118? You're value cutting yourself hard. This has to, 150%, be a jam on the end. Like the player type that will peel 54o on T76dd-2 for 70% pot isn't going to fold Tx/87/etc for all in (but call for 75). The reason they fold the river is because they peel turn here with 54o (which means they also peel like K9, 85, etc). So yeah, when the river is mostly a brick and you have 60% pot left behind, you go all in for value unless you have a very good reason not to.
This is a great point so thanks for making it. I guess I am of the view that sometimes V's won't call all in with a hand like Tx/99/88 here because they don't want to felt, but they may call a smaller amount. That being said, given I was never folding after betting $75, I either should have bet really small or jammed instead. My sizing accomplished nothing as a tweener given V's stack.
Go for Paper Thin Value OTR? Quote
08-07-2018 , 01:06 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by shorn7
This is a great point so thanks for making it. I guess I am of the view that sometimes V's won't call all in with a hand like Tx/99/88 here because they don't want to felt, but they may call a smaller amount. That being said, given I was never folding after betting $75, I either should have bet really small or jammed instead. My sizing accomplished nothing as a tweener given V's stack.
I always see that as one of those justifications to make this exploit ($75 when value betting and all in for $118 when bluffing). That they like still having a few chips on the felt. This is probably true for your OMC type player who plays a ton and feels shame when they don't have $ in front of them. But I wouldn't worry about the optics too much when the bet is so trivial relative to the pot. Your river bet gives him 3.7:1 on his money, versus 2.7:1 on a shove. Both are pretty tempting prices given the runout when he holds Tx.

Plus, I'd figure we would be bluffing here rarely against this player type, whether we bet 75 or all in. So in the times you do have a bluff and they fold, that's a perfect time to show it and train them into giving you the last 20+ bb.

But yeah, I like that you went big on the turn. If you're concerned that he'd overfold to shoves on the river, I think a better exploit would be to bet even bigger on the turn. Like why not make it 70-75 next time? He's probably going to call us with a lot of pair + gutter hands and KT/QT. So now the pot is 232 instead of 202 and we just have to bet 1/2 pot to get the rest in. If we have to milk them on the end to squeeze value, we might as well make the pot bigger so the milking bet is bigger.
Go for Paper Thin Value OTR? Quote
08-07-2018 , 01:07 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by c0rnBr34d
Thanks, it was YOUR read that gave the clues although perhaps post mortem. Obviously you can't make a habit of leaving that type of value on the table too often, not sure there's much you can do other than ride the variance train. Maybe you can grab a live read and take a bit more time especially if V is deeper but I think most of us play it pretty much the same.
this was my point see bolded
there is something you can do

I agree with about 80% of OP's posts on 2+2
so my point here is his read of V was chaser of draws
so go with the read and check river
a missed draw is not calling a river bet
V might bet a missed draw which is why I asked Op if he would call
if V led river into him
Go for Paper Thin Value OTR? Quote
08-07-2018 , 01:11 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by jdr0317
I always see that as one of those justifications to make this exploit ($75 when value betting and all in for $118 when bluffing). That they like still having a few chips on the felt. This is probably true for your OMC type player who plays a ton and feels shame when they don't have $ in front of them. But I wouldn't worry about the optics too much when the bet is so trivial relative to the pot. Your river bet gives him 3.7:1 on his money, versus 2.7:1 on a shove. Both are pretty tempting prices given the runout when he holds Tx.

Plus, I'd figure we would be bluffing here rarely against this player type, whether we bet 75 or all in. So in the times you do have a bluff and they fold, that's a perfect time to show it and train them into giving you the last 20+ bb.

But yeah, I like that you went big on the turn. If you're concerned that he'd overfold to shoves on the river, I think a better exploit would be to bet even bigger on the turn. Like why not make it 70-75 next time? He's probably going to call us with a lot of pair + gutter hands and KT/QT. So now the pot is 232 instead of 202 and we just have to bet 1/2 pot to get the rest in. If we have to milk them on the end to squeeze value, we might as well make the pot bigger so the milking bet is bigger.
Another great point and something that I need to work on...setting up pot size on early streets so that V's get even better odds to call the river. TBH, I was really thrown off by his flop bet and by calling there I think I got a bit lost in the hand and didn't recover the whole way. But there is zero chance this guy folds the turn for $75 so that would have been better sizing there too.
Go for Paper Thin Value OTR? Quote
08-07-2018 , 01:14 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by snowman
this was my point see bolded
there is something you can do

I agree with about 80% of OP's posts on 2+2
so my point here is his read of V was chaser of draws
so go with the read and check river
a missed draw is not calling a river bet
V might bet a missed draw which is why I asked Op if he would call
if V led river into him
The above is somewhat true, but I didn't completely discount Tx or 99/88 from his range too as those being pairs + draws, he probably plays the turn the same way. So when he checked the river, I bet to get value from the part of his range that did have a pair and wasn't that worried if he folded any completely whiffed draws.
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08-07-2018 , 02:20 PM
Maybe it depends on Hero's image but IME if we jam rivers against this V type we are getting 90% folds from worse and sending Tx to the muck. If your game is LAGier than mine maybe you can get those calls. I just dont, people show me top pair and fold rivers for value bets so I don't often even attempt a value jam unless my opponent has a much stronger line or they have shown that they will call off light.

To the other point, just because a V takes a funny line once in a while and likes to draw I don't think we should over-react and adjust in every hand assuming they are trapping the nuts OOP OTR. AP I think it was a mistake for V to check river given they called off so much of their stack from behind and Hero could check behind given Vs loose image with a 1P hand. I do agree you should have SOME check backs but you have to pick your spots IMO.

You guys made some great points about planning bet sizes that I need to work on but over sizing turn could also chase away a lot of Tx, it is basically targeting V's overcalling flush and straight draws, which is correct for this hand but I think a lot of his donk range is also Tx or even 7x.
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