Quote:
Originally Posted by Smoola1981
I disagree. Most bad live players cold 4bet a very tight range like AKs/KK+/some QQ. That means that his range is often AKo/some AKs/some QQ/AQs/88+JJ. And maybe some AJs/KQs if he is a fish.
Maybe he is a whale and has a lot of weaker suited hands than AJs/KQs. But we are treating him like an unknown so far.
Most of those combos that cold call a 3bet don't share cards with us. Only the small percentage of 88/99 share cards with our medium SCs. And none of them share cards with us when we have the low SCs like 76s-54s
We're into a lot of hypotheticals, without knowing the stakes, no reads, and talking about a multi-way pot in which someone is cold-calling a 3B from either the BTN or the BB.
Whether or not that cold-caller is more likely to share cards with us or with the 3B'er really depends on having more specifics. But, in general, the BTN and BB cold-calling ranges are probably wide enough to include a lot of cards that we share.
The BTN is incentivized to call wider because he's going to have position on future streets. The BB is likely to think he's getting good pot odds to call wider when he's closing the action. Think about it - if the BTN or BB had a stronger hand, he'd be more likely to 4B than to flat call.
Good players don't really have much of a 3B cold-calling range, so what does a bad player's cold-calling 3B range look like? It probably has more middling SC's - 76s to JTs - than it should. Our best SC's like 65s aren't doing great against 76s-JTs.
Maybe he's getting in there with some AJo or ATs, and he's going to lose a lot of money, but when that happens, he'll be losing it to the 3B'er with better AX holdings, not to us with 54s-98s.
Either way, whether he's sharing cards with the 3B'er or us, we're going to have trouble realizing our equity post-flop. When we connect, we're going to end up with the 2nd best hand a lot, and even when we have the best hand, our opponents aren't likely to pay us off in a big way.
Let's say we've got 65s, on a flop of 765, or 876. His 98 has us crushed. On 987, his JT has us crushed, and his 98 isn't likely to go broke often enough for us to have the correct implied odds to call with 65s pre, because he's likely to be worried about us having JTs. We're basically hoping to cooler someone playing too wide and who's too stubborn to fold.
The pre-flop 3B'er isn't as likely to c-bet the boards that favors our pre-flop flatting range when it's multi-way. The cold-caller also isn't very likely to bet those boards either, unless he has a piece and is betting for value.
To maximize our value, we're either going to have to donk lead, which is mostly going to fold out worse hands, or check-raise, which is also going to fold out worse hands, or check-call, hoping that we're good and one or the other of our opponents keeps betting. And when the cold-caller is doing the betting, we could often be toast.
It would be different if we were over-calling in a SRP from the BTN or the BB. I don't have a problem over-calling with more suited connectors in that case. But when we open EP-MP, get 3B, and there's a cold-call from the BTN or the blinds, we're going to be in no-man's land a lot when we over-call.