5/5 game. rake varies between 10-15% depending on pot size. I.e : pot is 1k about 140$ gets taken out. All the players are horrible. And sit with about 500-1k+ depending on the night. They have multiple rebuys too. Can I beat this game long term? IF not, then why? Mathematical calculations would be appreciated.

It all depends on how horrible the players are...

But I'd guess that it's not beatable.

Players must be absolutely atrocious. As an example, you have to be getting it in with ~58% to be breaking even.

Where's that game?

It's probably not a legal place to play cards.

Eeesh 10-15% rake without a cap seems pretty ridiculous.
I guess it comes down to how big of an edge you think you have on these terrible players.

I dont think any one has a big enough edge to beat 15% rake! thats unreal.

there is absolutely no way this game is beatable for anyone in "the long run."

anyone that keeps books and calculates how much they pay in a $4 capped standard rake or has dealt poker or run their own game should realize this...

i've been trying to use math to figure this out, but I just don't see how, because trying to "predict" what the rake would be in a game like that is almost impossible... if you search a bit, you'll find the consensus is that a respectable win rate in a 2/5 game is $25-$35/hr with more being possible for advanced players. You'll also find that average pot size in live games is often 40 bb. If we use those numbers, and figure 30 hands/hr... then you'd have to make like $60/hr just to break even.

based on dealing for thousands of hours, if the game plays big and crazy (which it would need to for you to have any chance of winning as much as you'd need to) then the rake could easily reach 600-800 dollars per hour... I'm an extremely proficient dealer and in a good 2/5 game where almost every pot is full rake ($4), I rake about 125-150/hr... I cannot begin to image what this would be uncapped at 15%, when all the huge pots go down ... it could literally be over 1K/hr

I can't even imagine people playing in this game... it's pure stupidity

=beatable. Avoid playing small pots with marginal holdings

please support this.

he said "long term"

no matter how you do the math, no matter what scenarios you can conjure up, there's no way to turn a profit in the long run... even if TS got AA vs. KK every night on the first hand and stacked off for 200bb, after variance kicked in and he lost 19% of those pots...he'd be down in the long run...

I suppose this scenario would show a small profit, but obviously it's impossible... point being is that this game is not beatable in "the long run" under "normal circumstances"

I would defy anyone to rationalize how it would be...

I think playing very few hands and leaving ASAP when winning would be the best approach to this game. As other people mentioned, whether or not this game is beatable in the long run is villain dependent.

Villain dependent? We must have AT LEAST 58% equity in any hand just to be break even in the long run! No way it's beatable, maybe Phil Ivey can make a grand per month.

Run away and never return to this place. It is obviously a place where if the table is 10 handed, only 2 people will be up by the end of the night IF there's been an insane amount of rebuys.

It pays to be out of position, Situation: There's quads on the board, and both the Villian and you have an ace.

If someone bets three times pot do you fold the nuts because you're not getting odds to call (after the rake)?

You'd have to really change your game to play under those rules. It has about as much in common with normal rules as playing with 100 dollar stacks and having a 25 dollar ante.

maybe this is a game that can be beat. -
Joey Knish

You sit there long enough and there isn't any money left at the table, and people sit there scratching their heads wondering why.

Obviously if you can find people to sit in this game, the game must be soft, because only not-so-bright people would sit at a game that removes 10% uncapped rake out of the table every hand.

But logically this game cannot last long, because bad players have to pay off good players while paying the rake when they do win.

+1