So this was a bit of a weird situation, to sum it up before going into detail, the board on the river was 7 7 9 7 9
Ok, so I'm playing at a pretty loose passive table, at least half of the hands are limped pots. My image was nitty/losing for the first hour or two, QQ<AK, JJ<AA, while the latter I could have gotten away from, I think I played it badly; however, I've gotten a run a solid cards and am back to where I should be, my c-bets are getting some respect, I've shown down solid hands for a few big pots.
I limp in EP with J9s (usually I would snap fold it, but, well, I felt like seeing a flop, and at least a few players probably fear a 3bet from me if they raise, given my sudden run of aggression.)
Villain in MP calls, 3 others call.
My reads on this villain are not as good as they should be; he is fundamentally a bad player. He wild and likes to gambol, will call way to often preflop regardless of raise size, will call 1-2 streets with second pair, but he is not completely clueless either, despite how it sounds. My critical oversight was not noting what he will lead out/raise/checkraise with, i.e., how he plays his really strong hands, vs his medium strength hands, vs the hands that he just wants to see a showdown with. What I know, preflop he could have any 2, he will call barrels with weak made hands, weak draws, sometimes air, but his strength that he is aware of his opponent, and has a good sense of the psychological side of the game. Earlier on he was limped to with QQ in the small blind, noticed that the big blind was going in for a raise, and limped so that he could 3bet. Anyway, I have definitely not been at the top of my game during this session. Right now he could have any two cards.
Villain has around 120$, I have him covered.
So, limped 4-5 way, pot is 10$, flop comes 7 7 9 rainbow
I lead out 10, V calls, everyone else folds. His range right now is any two overcards, something with a 9, or something with a 7. Also pocket pairs 22-99, TT+ I expect a raise pre. Despite what I said earlier about my failure to properly observe villain betting tendencies, I don't think he would raise here with the 7.
Turn (30$) 7 7 9 7
I like the seven, it's now less likely that he has one. I lead out 20, hoping to get called by an underpair, or who knows what. I feel I'm probably best. He calls.
River (70$) 7 7 9 7 9
So as far as I'm concerned here I have the nuts, and I'm just trying to get in the last 90$. So I think for a second, lead out 35, Villain goes all-in, and I snap call.
Now, here's the thing. What could he have here? Obviously he could have something with a 7 or something with a 9. Any non-paired cards w/o a 7 or 9 are probably folding, unless he's really just hoping to split. I have eliminated AA-JJ and probably TT from his range, though at the time I wasn't thinking about this, and was hoping to get value from an overpair. An under pair no longer has any value here, so it's no better than any other two cards.
I'm actually thinking that a check/call on the river makes more sense. If I'm correct that he doesn't have an overpair, then he's only calling with a 7 or a 9, or MAYBE some bluff-catcher wanting to split the pot. Idk I really doubt it.
I don't know, maybe I'm dwelling on it too much, but playing weird boards like this one is something I haven't spent much time thinking about in the past, and I've noticed it has it's own strange dynamic.
