Hero has been playing pretty TAG over a few hours, haven't gotten involved in any very big pots.

Villain hasn't been at table very long. Don't think he got involved in any big pots, limped a decent amount along with the rest of the table, occasionally would raise, really nothing else for reads.


Hero ($300) is UTG+1 (table is 7 handed at this point I believe) and makes it $10 with AA.

Villain ($200ish) calls on the BTN and the SB calls.

Pot $30
Flop J86r. SB checks, Hero bets $20, Villain makes it $40, SB folds and hero calls.

Pot $110
Turn is a 9. Hero checks, Villain bets $45. Hero??

I'm assuming villain has a set on the flop or AJ. I really don't see what else he can have and it is tougher without many reads.

I think kJ J8 and maybe QJ J10 J9 86s are in his range id call reevaluate river

Check/call river. Worth seeing how he plays IMO if the price is low enough and you have a decent chance of winning this hand

Yeah I can't fold this turn and shoving turn is lol. I would even consider a jam on the blank rivers if I decided I wasn't folding. It's clear he has a value hand and NOT a semi bluffing hand, it just depends on if its Jx or a set from the looks of it.

Call turn, most likely not going to fold.

Call and see the river.

QJ and JT are CIB ott. c/c turn

Seems like from your description of him he's a recreational player, and he probably overvalues top pair. I could see him show up here on the flop with any decent jack (raising to "see where he's at"), sets, and probably some 2pairs J8/ maybe J6 (is he calling j6o? maybe j6s), but probably never 68 (probably raises more "to protect his hand"). He can also definitely show up here with QQ/KK a non-negligible amount of the time ("gonna trap this fool").

With that range in mind I might even raise/fold the flop to around 70. If he's raising a jack here he's not going to fold it so you get value from all his 1pair hands. And if he 4bets you're almost never good and can safely release.

If you call the flop I think a b/f on the turn is much better than a c/call. Bet like 65/70 and shove most rivers, might c/f a 7 river.

As played probably have to c/call turn, lead small/fold river or c/f river (recreational players really don't VB light on the river if they can take their jacks to SD.)

What do you guys think? To thin for value?

Not thin at all.

Call turn.

Bet/Fold river. I'd say about $60

Any other reads on villain discounting poker related details? Age, comfortability at table ect?

The min raise on flop can either mean he thinks his hand is so strong, mainly sets, and wants to keep you in, or he has something like tptk and considers this some sort of value raise. I'm leaning towards this since his pre flop limping tendencies probably means he's a rec player

Your check on turn definitely under reps your hand to most 1/2 players so he probably thinks his tp is good. I'd call and check/call on river.

a bet/fold would be a better line for river if villain wasn't smart enough to shove over a blocking bet

Byzantine: raise/folding flop to $70 is absolutely terrible. Your would 3b the flop for value to get stacks in, what do you think he's gonna do with KK/QQ/AJ/Jx when we 3-bet? Raise-folding turns our hand into a bluff which is awful.

If we think he has Jx type hands often (which I agree I think he does) and we think we should be stacking off with AA against his range (which I do) then I say that we use the old stack-a-donk line and just crai on the turn. He's not folding top pair or an overpair both of which constitute a large portion of his range.

Yeah you're probably right. We don't really have any reads on the villain, and it's definitely possible that he would 4bet those hands, and with stacks as shallow as they are we can still get the money in with a bet/call bet bet line.

It's kind of hard to say without reads, but if he's been reasonably passive I think we can bet/fold the turn and feel pretty good about it. I assume there are some times where he's going to raise us off the best hand, but I think it's pretty rare.

[edit] If we bet 70 on the turn and he shoves we only need 19% equity. Probably have to call in that situation vs someone who can definitely overvalue alot of hands we beat + our set outs/ better 2p outs.

I like this assessment of the villains range here.

But given the spot OP got into, I don't really like b/f the river. What are you going to do, bet $60 and fold when V shoves for $50 more into $320? At 6.4:1 I have to think the V shows up with AJ, KK, QQ often enough to call.

I don't like the thought of raise/folding the flop. AJ is probably jamming on you here, as would KK or QQ.

AP Call the turn, and either bet/call or check call the river depending on V read and the board. I think the only river I fold is a Q.

You may be right about the river play, it's really hard to accurately guess without some sort of read on the villain. If we bet we might just have to call, but I think it's pretty close. If we decided to check, I think we can fold to a reasonably sized bet on any K/Q/J/10/7/ maybe 5. I just don't see a recreational player VBing with 1 pair hands on a board that gets that scary.

Call turn. c/c river. There are literally 15-20 cards that you wouldn't like to see on the river, but with his flop raise and turn bet, he is most likely on KJ or something similar. His range is Super wide here. A $10 call on the button in 1/2 can be anything. For all you know, he is making a "fancy" play with 9T.

Never do this. The villain has put in 95 of his 200 stack. You want to bet 60 and fold to 45 more?

Just shove the rest in on the turn. Foxwoods players are the worst on the planet. Don't be shocked when he has qj

Wow...I am a little taken back by how many people in this thread believe we are in trouble here. bet/call flop, c/r get it in on the turn without even thinking. Villain is going to show up with Jx here a huge percentage of the time at these stakes. Do not listen to anyone advocating a fold at any point in this hand.

nailed it.

However, once he makes it $40 OTF I think the next move it to re-raise. stacks are only 100x and it's a great flop for us. If we had reads that Villain is a nit it's another story, but against an unknown we need to get as much $ in OTF as possible before a bad turn/river hits. I'd make it $90 and shove ANY turn. If it's a another J, owell we've put too much in. A shove OTT will be $100 into $210.... easy game.

Who likes calling turn then shoving clean rivers? In game thatd.be my play. If I'm going with the hand I'm going to feel so icky checking down the river with often the best hand I hate hate hate a river c call..

So basically i like a shove otr on most cards or just a c/shove ott