Quote:
Originally Posted by RottPhiler
I wonder if I played it too nitty/conservative/scared, and if it was -EV play long term.
What range of hands would V min 3! pre with AND bet $100 otf into a $60 pot on a rainbow board that isn't extremely connected; though the T8 might give one pause?
If you were playing me, I would not be looking to take down the pot otf with a set of 8s or Ts. I also would not bluff with a 166% pot size bet otf with AKs with that board.
I would be looking to charge the max, while getting a call, if I had QQ/JJ. Both pairs has blocking value vs. str8 draws. AA/KK I probably go ahead and bet the same - $45.
If he's making the same size bet with JJ+, 100% of the time, you have ~62% equity & made a bad fold. It would make sense to bet the pot with JJ to most people to avoid the stress of dealing with an overcard turning, but he is IP, so most good players wouldn't bet but 75% pot.
Either the guy is a clown, or, he was pegging one of you on an overpair & hoping that his big bet would be perceived as his attempt at over-protection with JJ & that someone will call with a bigger pair.
However, which one of you has the overpair? Does V1 call $20 cold pre with QQ OOP? Does he believe you're capable of calling with an overpair there & then think he has JJ & call it off with QQ?
It might not be a totally outrageous of a bet, since V1 is in there; if he can count on ANY c/r being a set & be willing to fold his AA. However, that's a BIG 'if'; still it isn't completely moronic. Especially if V1 is calling $20 pre with JT, J9, 97 etc & willing to call a bet that size. However, who believes V2 can fold AA?
IMO, V2 suffered from FPS when he got excited over seeing AA.
It's either that, or V2 has had his AA cracked too often due to his weak/passive play & is tired of it. But that bet is going to cost him so much money in the long run.
So congrats on your fold, however, IMO, I think that weak player does the same thing with QQ & probably JJ. Reason being: both of you checked the flop & he doesn't believe either of you would ever consider checking that flop with a set because it is extremely connected [in his view] & so his JJ must be good & he 'fears' the overcard coming on the turn.
I would have bet the flop [75%] & watch him spazzzzz out with his raise & then fold with confidence.