Guy right before me overbets pot 15 into 13 (1 for rake)
I have 6 people back and I minraise to 30.
I have reads on him, I know pretty for sure he has made hand and
not big draw. He is super loose and capable of holding 64 or 69.
He reraises me to 90. I have about 110 left. So started hand alittle over 100 bb's.
So I run through my head and he either has straight, set 77 or 88, or
probably all 2pair combo's. I figured if he has top 2 which is most likely
2pair combo, he is still 20% to win. Straight I'm behind. And set I'm
super crushed. So I folded.
Not sure its right gonna run it through some sim program. See what my equity is versus that range. Just wondering thoughts here on 2+2
-What position are you in?
-What range of hands does he raise with vs limp with preflop?
I hate the minraise here. The only reason you should ever minraise here is if you strongly suspect it'll convince someone to reraise with a draw or overpair, giving you the chance to jam the flop.
The problem here is that your minraise doesn't look like anything. You could have an overpair, you could have a combo draw, you could have the nut flush draw, you could have two pair, you could have ace-8 with the ace of clubs. A minraise is weak-sauce on such a wet board, your villain is going to push back at you with a ton of hands that are weaker than sets.
Villain reraises you, which indicates he's willing to gii on the flop. Well okay, what range will he do that with?
Combo draws - yes.
Two pair - yes.
Overpair - maybe.
Straight - maybe (he might consider calling and donking the turn).
nut flush draw - maybe.
Set - yes.
It's tough since 64 and 69 are in his range. But if those hands are in his range, so are 57 and 58. For 100bbs, you should be comfortable stacking off with a set against a villain who plays such a wide range.
It's tough since 64 and 69 are in his range. But if those hands are in his range, so are 57 and 58. For 100bbs, you should be comfortable stacking off with a set against a villain who plays such a wide range.
We block most of the 57/58 combos. However, we still have enough equity against a range of all straight, set, and 2 pair combos to justify stacking off here unless we're super deep. Edit: just noticed stack sizes. Yeah, no way we can fold here.
One thing to keep in mind:
There are 6 combos of sets, and 15 combos of two pair (if he can have all of them).
So while we are 4% to win vs a set, and 80% to win vs 2p, we are still a pretty big 58.2% favorite over that portion of his range since there are many more combos of 2p.
Once we add in straights, obviously our equity will drop some, but not enough to make this a fold imo.
Also, fudge factor.
Also, raise more otf. I'd make it $40 - $50 here depending on game flop and how loose people are calling good sized bets.
We need to be lookin at effective stacks when we contemplate folding a big hand. You say you have reads on him, but what exactly are they? He has a made hand, but is he capable of over valuing 2 pair? In a vacum I really don't like the min raise and I hate min raise folding a set only 100bb deep. We have to have a sick read on someone to fold a set in this spot. Make the raise on the flop to 60 and stack off on the flop.
