Playing $1/3 live - NIT is sitting directly to my right, In 2ish hours I have only seen her raise 2 hands, and one was QQ and the other was AK. She was however, limping a little more than I normally see - but our table was essentially a limping/calling station so it made some sense.

Anyway, I am 3 off the button, and UTG and her both limped ahead of me, and I have AKdd. I open fairly large $25ish as our table plays a lot of hands and we are all fairly deep ($500-700 range) other than the girl to my right sitting with ~$150. SB calls, UTG folds, NIT calls. Flop is A 3 2 with a single diamond. Checks to me, I bet $45 on the flop.

SB folds, She shoves for her remaining $80ish dollars. I said man it sucks to call to your pocket 3s, made the call - she had pocket 2s - and that is all she wrote. If she has more money, it becomes a lot easier to fold - but it was a ****ty spot.

Can I fold there? Or is it crazy to fold to $80 more when the pot is like $150 at this point? It seemed fairly obvious to me that she had a set there, and I keep racking my brain to figure out any other hands that could possibly be in her range to limp/call/shove there and I've got nothing. Against the average $1/$3 player I am just calling there and moving on if they have a set... but I think I probably should've folded and looked awesome and stuff.

Thoughts?

Pretty easy call here if you think that she will stick it in here with AJ/AQ.

If she doesn't, then it's close. But I'm likely not folding.
Also, she's pretty terrible if she is calling $25 out of her $150 stack with 22. She is not a nit. Just passive, and bad.

Yeah... the thing that really had me confused was the $25 call. But she wasn't ever limping AJ/AQ and then calling a big bet - her ranges were more often suited connectors and small pairs... the PF call was bad and it threw me for a loop .

But at the table, I never put her on AJ/A10 type of hand - AQ was maybe, but she played it so strange.

And she wasn't great, but she was definitely nittier than this hand makes her seem (obviously I don't have a hand history or anything) but she was essentially playing like 5-10% of hands at most.

Very easy call. Played it fine.

You essentially flopped the nuts. Continue to let her call 8bb with a 50bb stack holding 22.

her crai was less than a min raise and she would do it with a weaker ace.

nh

You gave here ~6:1 to set mine, she won the pot but lost quite a few Sklansky dollars.

She needs to win 25/(1- 48/50 * 47/49* 46/50) which is 163.56 and she won 175 dollars minus rake.

She was always ahead in this hand.

It's just a cooler.

Nothing you can do here .. bug/windshield hand.

If you had anything other than AK here I might consider a fold ...

Honestly I would've checked this board and let her lead out on Turn. Doesn't change the result with AK here, but at least you see the River before she is all-in.

I have greatly reduced my c-bets with nits since they wont pay me off .. I wont pay them off. If she has KK/QQ/JJ here I want her to lead out on Turn for me to gii with her short stack. I find they either fold or I get the full stack instead of just one (or none) bets. GL

You said you haven't seen her raise anything but AK/QQ. You've only played with her for 2 hours, it's quite possible she hasn't had AJ/AQ yet, or limped and didn't show them down. I don't see how we could ever be excluding them from her range here. Folding might've been correct against her actual hand, but it's pretty bad against any reasonable range we could assign.

It's like you said a sigh, call

It was just a mistaken use of the term Sklansky dollars. Pretty sure his point was that her limp/call was very -EV, since she'll c/f the flop 88% of the time and doesn't win nearly enough the other 12%.

After she limps she has $147 left. She then calls a raise of $22 to see the flop, leaving her with a stack of $125.

88% of the time she doesn't flop a set/boat/quads and loses the $22.
(.88)*(-$22) = -$19.36

12% of the time she does flop a set

About 6% of starting hands are pp's, and the other 94% are not pairs. So say 6% of the time she's facing a pp.

That 6% of the time when she's against another pp, 1% of the time the flop will hit set over set and she can only be good against pocket 2's so 11/12 of the time she loses everything and 1/12 of the time she doubles up.

(.12)*(.06)*(.01)*(11/12)*(-$147) = $0
(.12)*(.06)*(.01)*(1/12)*(+$147) = $0
(.12)*(.06)*(.99)*(+$30) = $0.21

94% of the time she's against unpaired cards.

Depending on the unpaired cards, about 6% of the time those cards will flop TP or 2pair and double here while she flops a set.

(.12)*(.94)*(.06)*(+$147) = $0.99
(.12)*(.94)*(.94)*(+$30) = $3.18

In order of likelihood:
Misses a set and c/f otf -$19.36
Flops a set against unpaired cards and wins a c-bet $3.18
Flops a set against a pp that missed and wins a c-bet $0.21
Flops a set against unpaired cards that hit and doubles $0.99
Set over set on the bad end $0
Set over set on the good end $0

Sum = -$14.98

Every time she calls that extra $22 preflop, she loses $15. She could fold and lose $0. Not good enough setmining odds.

You can squeak out a fold. True, many players just shove when they are irrevocably committed anyway, but this one is very passive. She has absolutely no reason to protect any made hand. She might call you down with AQ, but I don't think she'll be psyched about it and she won't be in any rush to get it all in. I doubt reflexively shoving when she thinks it doesn't matter any more is her habit. (I think that is more a male habit - thoughts?)

I would call against 95% of V's. I would call in a 3/5 game. I would call with a real draw on the board or if the top card was vulnerable to overs. I would call against any male V, but I would fold against this woman on this flop. I doubt you were good 25% of the time. On the other hand, it is close enough that calling wasn't all that horrible. I wouldn't feel bad about it.

FWIW - uber nits limp/call AQ from EP all the time at 1/3 where I play. It takes a certain kind of individual though. (V was CO in this case though.)

She was ahead of his hand not his range.

This straightforward ABC player shortstack sounds like the perfect player to have on our left. Unless we have a great seat otherwise, I might try to sit on her other side.

I'm on board with preflop.

The SPR is 2 against this villain. If she put in a lol 17% of her stack preflop with a speculative hand and hit, nice hand ma'am. Against her we are 100% committed, especially considering that she can easily play any other A this way in a pot this size.

Gyou'reoverthinkingitG

Really simple call.

A fold in this spot would be absolutely terrible. Villain can have worse Ax or even A2s or A3s. The fact that she is a NiT but limp calls small pp ops for huge portions of her stack leads me to believe she is hardly a NIT. Meaning her limp calling range can be far wider AX hands. Villan made a huge mistake preflop so I wouldn't beat yourself up.

When you put the results in your post we get ridiculous responses that are extremely results oriented. If you posted this with out the results no one would ever say you should fold.... Ever.

I call every time. This flop is even better than others because you'll often go runner runner.

100% call. Never fold. Cooler

Huh? She limps-calls suited connectors and small pairs but won't do the same with AQ and AJ? I find that hard to believe unless you argue that she raises AQ and AJ. I'd be surprised if she folds AT.