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Flush vs River jam deep... Do they ever have worse? Flush vs River jam deep... Do they ever have worse?

10-27-2016 , 11:20 PM
Nominally a .25/.50c game but everyone is $200 deep+ and preflop raises are all in the 10-15x range.

V in this hand is a Young Korean university student. Played with him a year ago and he was pretty clueless but he seems to have read a book or studied up on the game and is playing fairly snug and solidly. I did see him x/jam $50 over a bet and a call on 689ss K with KJo early in the evening but it's the only time I saw anything slightly out of line.

Hero is BTN with 56s. Limps around, hero makes it $5.50 and V in BB calls and so does CO.

Board runs out 9cJs4s Ks 5d and V x/c $11 on flop, x/c $28 on turn and then x/jams over hero's $65 river bet. Hero has $130 behind.

So, $130 into $357 we need 26% equity to break even.

Against the widest reaslistic range I can come up with he 16 combos of flushes (AQ, AT, A9, A8, A7, A3, A2, QT-Q8, T9-T7, 98, 97, 87) which means he only needs to have 6 combos of hands we beat to make this a call.

And this is where I get really stuck. How often do you think these kind of players take this line with 99, JJ, QT (which are in his range 100%, unlike some of the flush combos I gave him)? Do you guys call or fold?

Usually I can work out a best line at least after the fact but this one is still leaving me stumped.
Flush vs River jam deep... Do they ever have worse? Quote
10-28-2016 , 01:12 AM
Well, in order for you to call, he needs to either be bluffing or be poor enough to play straights and sets this badly on two streets. If this is truly "deep" and the actual real-life dollar amount in play is significant to you both, then it's a pretty clear fold.
Flush vs River jam deep... Do they ever have worse? Quote
10-28-2016 , 01:27 AM
I think this is a really easy call if you think he can ever do this with just the As as a bluff which makes total sense for him to have.
Flush vs River jam deep... Do they ever have worse? Quote
10-28-2016 , 01:34 AM
Novice player--recently learned to tighten up a bit.
Absolutely is doing this with the nuts. Also possibly he hit 2 pair/set/less. OMG A SET! DO YOU KNOW HOW HARD THOSE ARE TO MAKE?!

In seriousness, b/c you posted, I'm guessing you called and he beat you. However, I'd say that players of this type often do go crazy with 2 pair and sometimes 1 (TPTK with Ace high redraw). That makes it a call, but a high variance one. I give him 0 bluffs in his range.

Pre in this game is just LOL. You should raise less to pot control this marginal starting hand (or just limp).
Flush vs River jam deep... Do they ever have worse? Quote
10-28-2016 , 01:37 AM
Lets go over Pre again. When guys are raising to huge rando amounts, proper poker suggests playing a far more limited range than that (it basically is a $5+ big bling game where your blinds are .25/.5). Should be very easy to bloat a pot to your hearts content after a flop with this kind of game.
Flush vs River jam deep... Do they ever have worse? Quote
10-28-2016 , 03:53 AM
I think pre is fine depending on what types of hands they are limping and raising (if we can exclude a lot of hands that won't fold).
Flush vs River jam deep... Do they ever have worse? Quote
10-28-2016 , 07:30 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sol Reader
I think pre is fine depending on what types of hands they are limping and raising (if we can exclude a lot of hands that won't fold).


Hero making it 12bb w 6 high vs a field of amateurs w no bet sizing understanding?

Gotta disagree, Sol. In games like this you can have complete control of potsize at will. I find longterm profit comes w seeing speculative hands for cheap aka limping 56s, and for bloating to your hearts content w good hands (99+, AQ+) and maybe a small raise w trouble hands and lower pps. I'm not worried about any villains ranging me, that's not a skill they have at this level.


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Flush vs River jam deep... Do they ever have worse? Quote
10-28-2016 , 11:12 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by dogarse
Nominally a .25/.50c game but everyone is $200 deep+ and preflop raises are all in the 10-15x range.

V in this hand is a Young Korean university student. Played with him a year ago and he was pretty clueless but he seems to have read a book or studied up on the game and is playing fairly snug and solidly. I did see him x/jam $50 over a bet and a call on 689ss K with KJo early in the evening but it's the only time I saw anything slightly out of line.

Hero is BTN with 56s. Limps around, hero makes it $5.50 and V in BB calls and so does CO.

Board runs out 9cJs4s Ks 5d and V x/c $11 on flop, x/c $28 on turn and then x/jams over hero's $65 river bet. Hero has $130 behind.

So, $130 into $357 we need 26% equity to break even.

Against the widest reaslistic range I can come up with he 16 combos of flushes (AQ, AT, A9, A8, A7, A3, A2, QT-Q8, T9-T7, 98, 97, 87) which means he only needs to have 6 combos of hands we beat to make this a call.

And this is where I get really stuck. How often do you think these kind of players take this line with 99, JJ, QT (which are in his range 100%, unlike some of the flush combos I gave him)? Do you guys call or fold?

Usually I can work out a best line at least after the fact but this one is still leaving me stumped.
Forgive me, but it sounds like you raised into an unknown amount of limpers with 6 high, got called by 3 spots. You bet the flop with total air, get called, then for some odd reason, bet the turn on a essentially a bluff, with a prayer for a spade flush, miss your flush, but hit a pair of 5s, STILL bet on the river, get RAISED, and you are wondering what your equity is? ZERO. Your equity is zero here. You beat nothing, ever. Fold.

Should have checked the turn, taking the free shot at a flush, which was your only hope of winning this hand. As played, you should have also checked the river. The only hand drawing is like T8. QT got there. There are no other straight draws.

Vil prob has at worst, middle pair here. Your hand only has showdown value against A high hands that missed (AT, A8, A7, A6). I doubt vil shows up with AQ. But really, no A high hands are ever calling two streets of total whiffs, unless you can give an example of it happening. Even the absolute most novice, lvl1 thinking player knows that if they have nothing, to just fold on the turn there.

Sorry mate, you played that awfully.
Flush vs River jam deep... Do they ever have worse? Quote
10-28-2016 , 11:19 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by rockville9
Forgive me, but it sounds like you raised into an unknown amount of limpers with 6 high, got called by 3 spots. You bet the flop with total air, get called, then for some odd reason, bet the turn on a essentially a bluff, with a prayer for a spade flush, miss your flush, but hit a pair of 5s, STILL bet on the river, get RAISED, and you are wondering what your equity is? ZERO. Your equity is zero here. You beat nothing, ever. Fold.

Should have checked the turn, taking the free shot at a flush, which was your only hope of winning this hand. As played, you should have also checked the river. The only hand drawing is like T8. QT got there. There are no other straight draws.

Vil prob has at worst, middle pair here. Your hand only has showdown value against A high hands that missed (AT, A8, A7, A6). I doubt vil shows up with AQ. But really, no A high hands are ever calling two streets of total whiffs, unless you can give an example of it happening. Even the absolute most novice, lvl1 thinking player knows that if they have nothing, to just fold on the turn there.

Sorry mate, you played that awfully.


He baby flushed the turn. It's bad but not so crazy.



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Flush vs River jam deep... Do they ever have worse? Quote
10-28-2016 , 12:52 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by rockville9
Forgive me, but it sounds like you raised into an unknown amount of limpers with 6 high, got called by 3 spots. You bet the flop with total air, get called, then for some odd reason, bet the turn on a essentially a bluff, with a prayer for a spade flush, miss your flush, but hit a pair of 5s, STILL bet on the river, get RAISED, and you are wondering what your equity is? ZERO. Your equity is zero here. You beat nothing, ever. Fold.

Should have checked the turn, taking the free shot at a flush, which was your only hope of winning this hand. As played, you should have also checked the river. The only hand drawing is like T8. QT got there. There are no other straight draws.

Vil prob has at worst, middle pair here. Your hand only has showdown value against A high hands that missed (AT, A8, A7, A6). I doubt vil shows up with AQ. But really, no A high hands are ever calling two streets of total whiffs, unless you can give an example of it happening. Even the absolute most novice, lvl1 thinking player knows that if they have nothing, to just fold on the turn there.

Sorry mate, you played that awfully.
I think you misread the hand... hero flops a flush draw (6s5s on Js4s9c board) and then turns a baby flush when the Ks comes.

By the river, the only thing hero loses to is a higher flush.

It's a close one between calling and folding here. I'd probably fold because I expect to run into higher flushes about 80% of the time here, but if you think there's any chance the villain is making a move with a hand like AsJc then it's probably a call.

I never, ever expect the villain to be raising the river with a straight, set or 2 pair here. It's a bluff or higher flush.
Flush vs River jam deep... Do they ever have worse? Quote
10-28-2016 , 01:50 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by 6bet me
I think you misread the hand... hero flops a flush draw (6s5s on Js4s9c board) and then turns a baby flush when the Ks comes.

By the river, the only thing hero loses to is a higher flush.

It's a close one between calling and folding here. I'd probably fold because I expect to run into higher flushes about 80% of the time here, but if you think there's any chance the villain is making a move with a hand like AsJc then it's probably a call.

I never, ever expect the villain to be raising the river with a straight, set or 2 pair here. It's a bluff or higher flush.


This is vs home game spewtards, not LLSNL regs. They absolutely have worse here sometime!


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Flush vs River jam deep... Do they ever have worse? Quote
10-28-2016 , 02:42 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by 6bet me
I think you misread the hand... hero flops a flush draw (6s5s on Js4s9c board) and then turns a baby flush when the Ks comes.



I never, ever expect the villain to be raising the river with a straight, set or 2 pair here. It's a bluff or higher flush.
UGH!!! Sorry my mistake. I couldn't read the suits when the type face was all bunched like that.

Please disregard my post. My apologies.

It would be helpful if you use the suit buttons like these...

As played, then yes, call. It's pretty sick, he might have a better flush, but he also might have a set, 2pr, straight.

Again, sorry for not being able to read. LOL.
Flush vs River jam deep... Do they ever have worse? Quote
10-28-2016 , 04:01 PM
I mean, he's probably losing money doing this, I don't disagree, but many players are losing players so everything they do is losing money. I just mean to say the play itself can be fine. Yes, I think even in a game like this. You ARE super deep after all, and tbh, even if we don't get folds, we possibly have equity edge pre anyway (more than 20% in 5 way pot) and definitely have EV edge, so if you're good, I'd say raising is good anyway. When you think you'll make money long term in a pot, then you want the pot to be big.
Flush vs River jam deep... Do they ever have worse? Quote
10-28-2016 , 04:51 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sol Reader
I mean, he's probably losing money doing this, I don't disagree, but many players are losing players so everything they do is losing money. I just mean to say the play itself can be fine. Yes, I think even in a game like this. You ARE super deep after all, and tbh, even if we don't get folds, we possibly have equity edge pre anyway (more than 20% in 5 way pot) and definitely have EV edge, so if you're good, I'd say raising is good anyway. When you think you'll make money long term in a pot, then you want the pot to be big.


Better we learn to optimize every decision, keep it small w rando crap, build the pot after the flop if your hand is strong. That's an important skill to work on. Rando spew-raising pre is absolutely a leak.

OP is obvi not very good, so let's work on the obvi choices to improve, starting by not raising SCs to 12bb OTB for no real purpose/plan in what is going to be a MWay mess anyways


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Flush vs River jam deep... Do they ever have worse? Quote
10-28-2016 , 05:06 PM
I think that's good advice, I just wanted to put it out there that raising pre is not inherently wrong.
Flush vs River jam deep... Do they ever have worse? Quote
10-28-2016 , 05:19 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Sol Reader
I think that's good advice, I just wanted to put it out there that raising pre is not inherently wrong.


Raising to this size probably is inherently wrong in this game (though I agree raising an SC OTB is not inherently wrong). Importantly, it bloats the pot prevent us from working on pot control in later spots--another key skill for LLSNL mastery.




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Flush vs River jam deep... Do they ever have worse? Quote
10-28-2016 , 05:47 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Maskk
This is vs home game spewtards, not LLSNL regs. They absolutely have worse here sometime!


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I disagree completely. There's a huge difference between being a spewy station (calling down far too loosely) vs someone who makes extremely thin value raises OTR... it's one thing to get sticky with top pair but it's an entirely different thing to raise the river with a set after the flush draw fills up. The only way I could see this happening is if the villain was completely unaware that the flush filled up and genuinely thought that the nuts was a straight. As long as they see the flush out there, they're never raising the river (although they're probably not folding much either).

Villain is far more likely to be raising the river with complete air than with a set/2pr/straight (the kind of hand that has showdown value).
Flush vs River jam deep... Do they ever have worse? Quote
10-28-2016 , 07:52 PM
I've played in a number of similar home games over the years. You're never winning here with a 6-hi flush. Fold; he's got one, too, and it's higher. A set or KJ/J9 will check/call in this spot.
Flush vs River jam deep... Do they ever have worse? Quote

      
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