Game: Live 1/2
Hand: 54
Position: BTN
Stack: 480$
V1: UTG, 110$, 5yo guy, tight-weak player who might be tilted.
V2: UTG+1, 350$, 40yo weak-passive, but not a donk, just a decent beginner I’d say.
Hero: Young reg. playing good tight-aggressive, capable of 3-betting light and bluffing.

Preflop Action: V1 bets 8$, V2 calls, HJ calls, CO folds, I call, both weak-passive blinds call. (45$)

Flop: 238

Action: 2 checks, V1 bets 15$, V2 calls, I raise to 55$, V1 goes all in for 100$ total, V2 asks if I can reraise him if he just calls and then calls.

It's my turn to act, it costs me 45$ to call into a 300$ pot. I can also raise or shove, me and V2 have 240$ more in ES.

I'm not too worried about V1 who could be tilted and have a hand as bad as a gutshot or a weak top pair. V2 could have a set, a better FD, straight draw, all three of which he might have already raised the 15$ with or could have TPTK, 99, TT, or even some weird 2 pairs.

What would you do? Call or shove?

Very nice raise OTF (we are ahead vs. most of their ranges btw), if we have any FE we should just shove. I think shoving might be best because V2 is drawing some of the time and we can be drawing thin.

It's going to be hard to extract later on as well if we do hit anything but our str8 (no implied odds if we just call).

This villain calls 15 then calls a back-raise, his likely range is 2 overs + FD/draws as well as pairs in his range we can "potentially" fold out.

I just call. He knows you can re-raise and he still called. I'm going for the straight more than the flush, because he could easily have a flush draw. I might also bet blank turns if he checks to me.

BTW, I totally understand the 5yo tilt players!

I don't hate just calling, because if I'm up against AXss I'm in trouble, but V didn't reraise the two times he could have so this is a bit less likely. Also like betting a turn blank when it's checked to me.

Ahaha, I meant 25yo lol.

I agree, I'm just scared V has AXss too often for my shove to be profitable. Also have to figure how often he calls the shove with KXss or QXss, but this isn't easy since I had only been playing with him for an hour. My first instinct tells me he would fold them a lot since he's a recreational player and might not be ready to gamble his hole stack with the non nut FD.

My first instinct would be to call.... But let me think of why....

I guess I don't think I have a great deal of fold equity.... it just feels very unlikely that V1 will cold called twice and will fold if I push. Even if he thinks a fold is the better play - it would be a very hard ego move to let it go now.

I say that even though I'd guess he's on the FD.. maybe two suited broadway. My plan would be to push on a non-spade turn. If a spade turns it's a tough situation..... I'd go for a small bet/fold I think.

Are u playing at Lac Leamy?

I think implied odds matter here and if we aren't really going to extract streets later OTT or OTR i don't think we can call. If the get's there we make no money it's the obvious draw that's on the board (bad implieds) + we don't have the NFD (reverse implieds)...

I want to realize ALL my equity with this hand see both turn + river, which looks stronger...?
Calling flop then having villain go AI OTT themselves and then having to call off vs. Just jamming AI right now for max FE.

Take a card off. You've already raised once and that should give you reads. It's nice to think you might get a better FD to fold, but reality is often NOT what we desire it to be.

Move in OTT if the flush misses and it's checked to you.

Jam OTF. Excellent equity against almost any hand. Even against A2ss we have 35%. Any fold equity is icing on the cake. Lots of turn cards that can make the hand unnecessarily tough.

Did you even read the HH?

One guy is all in and the other seems to be committed to CIO. So any FE would be icing on a cake that has no icing.

And the only turn cards we're concerned about with our mega draw is whatever will spike one of V2's spades (if he does indeed have 2 spades) and at the same time does not complete our str8.

It's like infinitely unusual for people to play those cards, much less against a PFR.

So aggressive, but clearly you don't understand the idiom "icing on the cake." May I recommend google.com?

We are likely 50%+ on the flop and at worst 35%. On spade turns we could be crushed or villain could fold hands we beat. On non-spade turns that don't complete our sd, we will likely have ~ 25%. You want to wait until your equity drops 10% to get the remaining money in.

Yes it is very unlikely V2 folds. But if it ever happens, it just makes a good situation better (like icing on a cake, chief).

I like it, semi-bluffing the turn on non-spade turns may give me less chance to have the best hand by the river, but my FE goes up considerably since he wouldn't have the right odds anymore to draw for his FD if he has one too.


I think I clearly have the right odds to justify a call, just for the straight I'm 7.5-to-1 to hit OTT (without hitting the flush at the same time) and I might get a free river if I miss (+good IO if I hit the straight), also the FD gives me some equity, he doesn't have the FD 100% of the time. And the pot gives me 6.5-to-1 odds.

The problem with shoving is that it gives me no way out if he has an higher FD, and I'm not sure I have enough FE to justify it... But it might be a fine line, the two options are clearly considerable. If the spade hits the turn I'm not sure I'm calling my opponents AI, I haven't seen him bluff or shove much so it would be pretty obvious he has hit a better flush, but that's vilain dependant...

Are you planning to fold on spade turns? I think if you do the equity calcs against his/her range you will see you don't need any FE for this to be +EV.

The part you don't get is that our remaining stack is going in whether we shove the flop or not. So our actual equity when we move in is irrelevant.

It's about villain's equity, not ours. We want VILLAIN to put HIS stack in when he's getting less than the proper odds. OR we want villain to fold when he IS getting proper odds. It's EXTREMELY unlikely that either of those will occur OTF. QED.

No. We are doing much better against our opponents stack off range on the flop than the turn.

You've made some wonky assertions (some patently false) but actually haven't demonstrated anything. Your remarks are extremely foolish.

For example, our equity is 1 - villains' equity. Stating that one matters and the other doesn't is just ridiculous. Do you have any reasonable analysis to add to this discussion? Perhaps some math that shows why getting it in on the turn is better than the flop? Or are you just content to troll the forums?

Call, ainec. V2 won't fold and your FE is zero. You're likely against a better flush draw and a set/pair. You would only have 22% equity in that scenario. Take the decent odds to bink a straight, or a 5/4 to give yourself more outs.

There's three people in the hand. And I'm the one trolling, huh?

You can't grasp a fundamental concept: if villain will play the remainder of this street without error, there's no reason for hero to continue playing this street. That's not my fault, and I assume there's nothing I can do to fix it.

It is still true that your equity plus villains' equity (be it 1,2 or 8 of them) in total equals 100%.

This is just not true. No amount of attempted bullying on your part should make anyone assume it is (OP included).

Consider a situation where you have 60% equity on the turn and your opponent has 40%, there is $1000 in the pot, and you each have $100 left. Now both players turn their cards over. Should you bet your last $100? You can assume villain will play "perfectly " when seeing your cards.

Since villain is getting 11:1 he is going to play perfectly and call. Still, it's better for us to bet than check since betting yields an extra $20 of EV, even though the villain plays the street perfectly.

This shows that the "fundamental concept" that we shouldn't be betting if villain is going to play perfectly is wrong.

Back to the hand in question. We have tremendous equity against pairs on the flop. This equity goes down on the turn. Much better to get the money in with 2 cards to come and excellent equity than on the turn with 25% equity.

Yeah, that's not the best scenario for sure. But V1 can't put any more money into the pot. So we would be creating a side pot vs. 1 villain.

Our equity is exactly breakeven against a range of 22+, AsTs+ (literally, 50/50). It gets better if we add top pair hands, and worse if we add more flush draws. With 0 fold equity it's at least close, no?

If we call, are we folding spade turns? Is villain calling a shove with all his pair hands?

Hero is less the 50% against sets/overpairs/better flush draws. It's likely hero has less than 33% equity in the main pot.

I'm basing 0 FE based on villain's described range. If hero thinks he has any fold equity, then shoving becomes a much more attractive option.

A significant part of the low non-nut combo draw value comes from FE. They are easily dominated against 2+ players and their value plummets.

Ok. You make some good points. What's your plan for the turn? Specifically on non-straight cards and spades?