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Flopped Top Two Facing Pressure From a Nit

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10-15-2014 , 08:46 PM

jesse123

adept

Join Date: Dec 2013 Posts: 1,078

$1/2
$300 Effective

V1 - Ultra Tight. Ultra passive. In two hours of play, I can't recall a single pfr, post flop bet, or post flop raise he's made. The only hand he showed was T8o from the BB where he correctly called a river bet from a LAG (V2) with top pair. He's basically OMC in a 25 y/o Canadian's body.

V2 - Bad LAG

Hero - Tight image. Lost a huge pot to V2 when flopped flush went down to runner runner boat on an all-in.

Pre-flop
V1 limps UTG
V2 limps on the button
Hero checks in the BB with A6o

Flop
A62 Rainbow
Hero checks
V1 bets $10
V2 calls $10
Hero raises to $25
V2 3-bets to $110
V2 Folds
Hero?

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10-15-2014 , 08:52 PM

matzah_ball

veteran

Join Date: Jul 2012 Posts: 2,727

Usually 22 or 66. Not many combos of A2s and he probably doesn't 3bet bomb it like this. Fold it is.

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10-15-2014 , 09:37 PM

iraisetoomuch

banned

Join Date: Aug 2013 Posts: 37,517

There are 4 combos of reasonable sets.
1 or 2 combos of A2s, 0, 1, or 2 combos of A6s.
Given reads he never raises with anything worse than 2p.
And should never be limping 62.

Depending on suits on the board, and in your hand, at best we are 2/8 chopping, 2/8 90% to win and 4/8 15% to win. At worst we are 8% to win 1/4 times and 15% to win 3/4 times.

Fold I suppose.

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10-15-2014 , 10:49 PM

macktyson

grinder

Join Date: Sep 2007 Posts: 688

Folding here to this Villian. His 22 his basically face up with how you described him and actions so far.

Also not quite sure I'm raising this flop either, you got the board locked down with exception of 22.

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10-15-2014 , 11:42 PM

Steve00007

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jul 2005 Posts: 9,163

That's really strong. He bet and then reraised after you check-raised? I wouldn't want to put in $110 and then fold or get the rest of my stack in later. I guess it's possible that he has AK or AQ here but pretty unlikely from the description and with no pf raise. I'd fold because I don't think he does this unless he has 2 pair or better.

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10-16-2014 , 12:22 AM

shrewsbury91

adept

Join Date: Oct 2010 Posts: 781

I think if V2 had A2, 62s or even a hand like Ax he would be more apt to raise V1's lead on the flop since his hand is susceptible and doesn't want to have you come along getting good pot odds. However since V2 flatted the flop and then raised after you exhibited interest in the pot I feel his range is weighted toward sets in this spot, probably 22 in this case. Once he sees you raise the flop he stops his plan of slow-playing monsters since now V believes you have a strong hand and will get all the money in the middle.

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10-16-2014 , 01:25 AM

PokerIsTooEasy

banned

Join Date: Sep 2014 Posts: 1,004

Sometimes nits will over play AK type hands but without that read his line is super strong. Since he limped UTG he could even have AA here. Easy fold. Prefer you lead flop though.

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10-16-2014 , 01:35 AM

slimshady1999

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Nov 2011 Posts: 4,313

4 combos of sets vs 1 or 2 combo of A2s and 2 of A6s. I lean towards fold. The only reason why this is so hard to fold is his sizing. There is no draw on board and he can get stacks in easily so I don't know why he raises so big. Almost looks like AK or two pairs yet he's so passive....

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10-16-2014 , 01:47 AM

trucdouf

veteran

Join Date: Jan 2013 Posts: 2,216

I'm folding this, ainec.

Ultranit 3b my c/r. I'm throwing into the muck before he even gets his very across the line.

Only thing I would do different is lead this flop rather than min c/r.

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10-16-2014 , 05:59 AM

#10

Homey D. Clown

old hand

Join Date: Apr 2009 Posts: 1,262

I really don't like your check/raise either. Just bet, bet, bet.

As played it's an automatic fold based on your reads.

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10-16-2014 , 11:52 AM

#11

roberbro23

centurion

Join Date: Jul 2014 Posts: 154

yep, he has a set. he has to raise AK preflop. 22, 66, AK. fold it.

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10-16-2014 , 12:00 PM

#12

johnny_on_the_spot

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jun 2013 Posts: 11,613

Quote:

Originally Posted by roberbro23

he has to raise AK preflop.

Umm, no, he really doesn't. Nits can and will routinely limp 100% of their range. Obv your local nits mileage may vary

As played, fold for all reasons stated

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10-16-2014 , 12:03 PM

#13

wewa925

adept

Join Date: Feb 2013 Posts: 1,039

Dislike the x/r. As played, there are more Ax combos in his range than sets. I'm shoving.

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10-16-2014 , 12:10 PM

#14

blakeatron

adept

Join Date: Nov 2012 Posts: 1,173

We block most sets and have 4 outs twice vs 22. I think he does this with AK and obviously A2. We don't need to be right a lot and I'm not folding

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10-16-2014 , 12:18 PM

#15

iraisetoomuch

banned

Join Date: Aug 2013 Posts: 37,517

Quote:

Originally Posted by blakeatron

We block most sets and have 4 outs twice vs 22. I think he does this with AK and obviously A2. We don't need to be right a lot and I'm not folding

Regardless of the right answer here:

How often do you think we need to be right here to make this profitable?
We are almost certainly going to be put all in on the turn.

What is your plan on Q-7, 5, 4, 3 2 turns?

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10-16-2014 , 01:29 PM

#16

kansaisupra

grinder

Join Date: Jul 2011 Posts: 679

V1 might have been trying the limp AA reraise plan. Unlikely due to the our A blocker but still possible. 22, 66 more likely.

I think I just fold based on description of V1. The only hand your beating is A2.
If he shows AK, well nice play.

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10-16-2014 , 01:31 PM

#17

kansaisupra

grinder

Join Date: Jul 2011 Posts: 679

For the Average 1/2 player, I think AK is 50/50 with preflop raises and preflop limps.

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10-16-2014 , 01:34 PM

#18

macktyson

grinder

Join Date: Sep 2007 Posts: 688

Quote:

Originally Posted by kansaisupra

For the Average 1/2 player, I think AK is 50/50 with preflop raises and preflop limps.

I think an "average" break even player will raise AK way more often than 50/50, now a "bad" player I can see 50/50. I obviously have no back up for that but just an opinion.

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