Quote:
Originally Posted by zugzwangg
Hero will probably beat nothing on the river and should fold. villian has everything that hero beats in his range, like really everything because all that he did was to min raise you preflop and that is no indication that he should consider bluffing the river for his whole stack or the whole hand is crazy in someway.
JJ and AA both make sense for a min raise and for a flop check back for deception.
In general when shown a line like this with mixed signals of weakness and strength and random bet sizes from an otherwise sensible villian
I evaluate it like this,
400 more to win ~800, so we need to be good 50% of the time.
How many hands can villian show up on the river with. For example what about QdTd? 8d9d, 5d6d? How could you think he is never min raising with these preflop?
What about AA and JJ? do they always bet the flop do they always shove over on the turn? do they always only call the river?
and is this villian so stupid that he min raises AK, checks back flop like a pussy and then goes nuts when he rivers two pair? basically bluffing here with AK? Any other two pair is even less likely given that he only called the turn.
summing it all up, he has some reasonable number of value hands that beat us that *crazily* ended up on the river. If he has a bluff he decided to min raise with it pre flop, check back flop, call a turn raise IP and shove over us on the river to extract the most money from us. Awesome so which street did he decide to bluff us exactly so as to account for the 50% of bluffs that we need to make the call?
easy fold.
AK makes just as much sense as any hand you have listed here. Against only AA/JJ/AK we are good 60% of the time; if we include 56dd, 89dd, and QTdd in addition to AA/JJ/AK, we are exactly 50%.
We also have to add the cost of our call into the pot - we're not calling 400 to win 800, we're calling 400 to win ~$1600. So even if we take out some combos of AK we're still priced in to call.
I would also c/r bigger on the turn if the plan is to get stacks in (which it is).