$2/4 casino. 2pm. Typical Passive play.

V: white, mid 20's, Very TAG table image, $550. Have not seen him run or turn anything into a bluff, never limps pre, seen him SD strong.
H: Asian, mid 20's, solid TAG, $500

H is UTG+2 and overlimps with 3. Limped around to V in SB who makes it $25. BB flats, H flats. 3 runners, pot: $87.

Flop: 3105.

V leads for $75. BB folds, H flats. Pot: $237.

Turn: A.

V leads again for $220.
H?

I personally would've liked to raise the flop even...
Not sure if optimal but bottom set isn't as strong as it appears to be on this flop. (?)

what is his range here? AKh, AQh, AJh, 9s+, QKh???

I am prob calling or shoving and praying I can hold on.
I wouldn't even mind a fold here if his opening range is even tighter?

Raise flop. V should have a tight range, so there's really no reason to slowplay on this board.

As played, turn is somewhat gross. We shouldn't expect him to bet (especially not this large) with KK-JJ. Against an extremely tight range of AA/TT/AhKh/AhQh, we should fold turn, as we only have 22.2% equity. However, in practice I would expect him to have ATs at least some of the time here, as well as some other AK/AQ which c-bet the flop. Adding in just a few combos of those hands makes this a shove. Unless I've got a very large sample on V, I'm shoving here.

Grunch:

I'd raise flop to like 230-250 and shove turn, don't really think your average tight villain in these games can fold an overpair. As played shove turn. Sometimes he shows up w/ AA, but alot of the time he probably has AK/AQ here.

Calling flop is fine. Calling turn would be good. Call all river shoves. Shove all rivers when checked to.

Raise flop.

Too many cards can hit the turn that will kill our action.

Tim,

1. Why did you open-limp this hand?
2. Why did you call the raise?
3. Do you think that it's profitable to set-mine with 33 if you're afraid to get stacks in when you flop a set?
4. If you don't think you can profitably get stacks in when you flop a set, instead of calling pre-flop, what should you do?

Thank you, I was thinking similar things. I am actually V and the reason I created this post was because I was thinking about the mistakes H made and what he should do OTT as played and wanted some extra thoughts.

Results were that he shoved turn with 33 and i SD'd 1010.

This is an interesting hand. I was actually replying before you posted results and my phone went wrong. So this reasoning is without seeing results and refers to villain and hero as per your original post:

Villain opens big preflop vs lots of limpers and is TAG therefore he must have a tight value range like: 99+ AQ+ AJs KQs

Villain c-bets OOP into two players with quite a big bet. Therefore he must have significant equity not AxKx. So something like: TT+ AhKh AhQh AhJh KhQh.

Turn brings Ad and villain bets massive.

This can't be with AX
For villain to have AX he has to have AhXh. If he has Ah he knows competent TAG Hero doesn't have Ah and therefore Hero's flop calling range cannot contain many AX or flush-draws. Therefore Hero cannot call such a big turn bet without two-pair+ e.g. AT A5.

This means Villain bets turn smaller with AhXh hoping to get value from weaker hands than two-pair.

Therefore when villain bets turn very big he doesn't have Ah in his hand unless he holds AhTx, Ah5x or AhAx. That leaves villain with AA TT 55 AhTx Ah5x for betting big on turn and he likely didn't raise preflop with ATo or A5o or even 55. Therefore Villain must have TT or AA and Hero should fold.

Grunch:

Raise flop. Given v's description, he's got an overpair and we don't want to have him get spooked by a bad turn card.

You'd have to have a crazy strong read of villain having TT/AA to fold the turn. I'm not folding sets for 125bb deep.

Ship...I do not mind not raising the flop. We know V has some kind of hand so at this point we have to ship. He could have a combo draw, 2p, higher set, or something like KK. His over bet looks weak almost as if he is scared of the ace or really doesn't want the flush to get there.

You can argue raising flop.
As played just ship turn.

OTT pot is 240
V bets 220, leaving 180 behind
if we just called, the pot would be 680 with 180 behind, which is lol on his part betsizing wise.

regardless, its essentially us calling 400 (220+180) to win 640. 640/400 = 1.6:1, which means we need 38.5% equity for this to be EV neutral.

if V's range is: {AA,TT,AK,AQ,AJ }, we have ~29% equity.
if V has literally 2 combos of AxKx in his range, we have ~42% equity. in my estimation, V should have more than just 2 combos of AK in his range. if V has every AK in his range (completely possible), we are 68/32 favorites

this is pretty much the definition of shove for value.

I agree with your analysis - if Villain bets flop big with AxKx and if Villain bets turn big with AhXh or AxKx.

However, I don't think villain bets big with AxKx on flop without Ah and I think villain can see that he can't get value from many other flush draws or AX on the turn if he holds the Ah himself. Therefore Villain doesn't bet big with any of his AhXh or AhKx.

just saw this...

jfc, i hate when people make reverse threads. just ask for a freakin line check and ask the question you want about Vs line...

The guy with 33 played the hand fine (other than possibly the limp, but whatever, thats table dependent)

your turn bet is too big. everything that is behind with the exception of the 6 combos of 55 and 33 probably fold and you leave no room for the Ax to bluff because your obviously pot committed. you got amazing lucky he had 33.

Edit: the reason i despise reverse HH is because people go through and actually give you honest feedback which takes them time so that hopefully if you have a question, you can learn from it. but your not the Hero in the hand, so what are you going to learn? nothing really, except how V played a hand against you, which is little to nothing. au4all took the time to ask you 4 questions but you cant answer them because obv you didnt do the actions.

Snippity snap jam it in there obv

I agree reverse hand histories are annoying but this is an interesting hand.

Johnny - what are your thoughts on my reasoning? It's genuinely what I thought before results were revealed so i was able to deduce villain's (actually hero's) hand due to his overly strong line.

I think it may be a generaliseable read you can make on any multiway two-tone board being bet strongly when an Ace falls on turn. The big turn bet from an level-2 thinking TAG has to be set+ or a semibluff with < A-high FD much more often than top-pair-no-FD or top-pair-NFD or two-pair.

(level 2 thinking being: Thinking what villain thinks hero has.)

Am I just being nitty and weird or does this make sense?

I don't think it's that interesting. Hero flopped a set less than 200bb deep and effectively has the nuts, so doing anything other than raising flop or shoving turn would be bad. If V has TT/AA it's just a cooler. V can easily have AK, AQ, AT, Axhh, or just getting frisky with JJ-KK.

shove turn. its a cooler if he has you beat. lets do some analysis. if hes that taggy then hes raising pre with tt kq etc but not 55.

we lose to six combos of sets. discount a little because he bet so big on turn. so say he has 4 combos of sets. he can have AJhh AQhh AKhh KQhh. maybe KJhh QJhh even AT if he raises those pre. thats one combo each besides AT. you need like 40% to breakeven here.

it makes sense but its a specific, higher thinking read that may or may not be applicable to a villain. to apply it, you would really need to see them play, 1 HH and a very brief description rarely enough to apply it.

that is why the advice when someone hits a set 100bb deep and a board isnt a flush or straight, is usually to get it in, regardless what Vs are betting. it's extremely hard for your V to have a set if you have one AND we rarely play with Vs enough to know how they play sets on various types of boards.

and the caveat is: misapplying a high thinking read like this will cost you a lot of money.

forgot to include AKo AQo AJo. villain could certainly bet air sometimes against two people.

villain misplayed hand by betting turn too big. he got lucky for set over set

Thanks johhny, this makes sense.

I definitely overthink things and end up leveling myself way too often. I used to tell myself it was because I was clever but it really isn't clever to get an opponent's level of thinking wrong!

Poker really is a f***ing difficult game...

+1

Player A has TT.
Player B has 33.

The flop comes T53. I wonder what is going to happen??

Yeah very funny wise guys. Obviously I thought it was interesting because it is possible for player with 33 to make a fold here due to way top set was played even though it is 100bb deep. As johnny pointed out you can't make the fold without a good read on the level your opponent is thinking on - which is a useful input.

Why is it so many 2+2ers, like you guys, just post piss-taking stuff rather than engage with what other poster's are saying?

Is the idea here to just have everyone repeatedly state the "standard line" and mock anyone who wants to discuss anything else?

Personally I've had more than enough "coolers" with set-over-set that I have started to look at where I can save some money and I find it interesting to think about spots you could potentially make a tough but correct fold.

Fair points