1/2 Foxwoods

Villain - 45ish big bald man with a tan. He is not talking much Sat about 45 min ago and is running very good. His initial $200 is now a $450 stack. He seems competent - good bet sizing, has raised for value - but also seems to be playing ABC - very straight forward. We played one limped pot where I lead flop with J high flush draw, villain snap calls and other players fold. Check down turn and river and villain says "I missed" and shows king high flush draw - he seemed a little surprised when I mucked my hand face down.

Hero - 30, in a hoodie with the hood down, playing "tight" style which is about 20% of hands. I have been at table for about 6 hours. Running well, I have about $950.

THE HAND

Hero is dealt 5d5h 2 off the button

Early position player makes it $6, 3 callers including me and Villain who will have position. (Pot ~$25)

FLOP: Jx5c2c

Check check hero bets $16. Villain hesitates for about 2 seconds and says "76." The two early position players fold. Hero?

My thinking: Big raise for this villain as it is slightly more than PSB. I am not sure if this villain would have raised JJ pre but I think he would have considering the baby raise pre flop, not sure. I'm thinking the reason to call $6 pre is for the implied odds but at 225 BB villain has 2nd largest stack on the table and if I pop it up again, I pretty much have to call a shove. If I flat, there are literally no cards I want to see other than the case 5 on the turn. But can I ever fold here?

Any and all comments and advice welcome but mainly interested on thought process for rest of the hand. Thanks!

you can definitely never fold. 22 and AJ are way more likely given preflop action, and since he is competent, he could definitely be raising a draw here.

I'd click it back to 160 or so and call a shove.

You'll need to pay closer attention to the people at your table. I've noticed most players will raise larger with Jacks because "they hate Jacks" and want to end the hand as quickly as possible. There are some players I've found that raise everything small when they raise and could very well be opening to $6 with JJ. Either way I don't think you can fold here.

never fold. call if you're happy to play some more streets with the 2 clubs out, or just get more chips in if you think he'll call you off with TPTK type hands. He probably checked KJ or something and takes your raise for a positional stab.

+1, we just cant fold here- trying to soulread the guy for exactly one hand that beats us: JJ.

If he has 22 he is almost drawing dead. If he has AJ he is in horrible horrible shape. If he has like AJ clubs, or KJ of clubs only his flush outs are live- so you are 70/30 with your set.

Never folding. Raise to $195 and call a shove

$200

I was 3rd to act after the flop out of position to villian. I opened the betting on the flop after PFR checked.

right, used to reading hem imports, sorry. same reasoning applies though cos your hand is so strong, position doesn't change a whole lot apart from the fact if you just call him it can slow a lot of hands down ott that might give you action if you ship otf.

i'd probably get it in and hope he's strong enough to call.

click it back and never folding

Do you think this guy flatted $6 with JJ because he "hates" Jacks?

I don't think that makes sense with his description.

This looks like either 22, AJ (with cc?), or something stupid like 43cc.
I think if we raise here he's getting it in with all of those. And we're ahead of pretty much all of it.

Good bet sizing?

I'm never folding. This looks like top pair with flush draw. Or combo draw trying to create fold equity. Have a hard time believing this is a set. Unless he has huge case of mubs.

My guess is he is pot committed with his big raise. I would click it back to 200$ shove all turns.

This is 1/2. So he could have anything but we are ahead of 90% of his range.

being OOP sucks

I think if you raise here he will fold anything you beat and only call with 2 pair / AJcc / set of 22 or JJ which really sucks since it's so hard to hit this board.

He will also stick around with 43cc if he is playing that type of hand.

So i'm not in love with the raise this deep. I think we can just call - see a safe turn card and than check / raise or just lead $150. If he had $300 or less i'd probably just shove GII but since stacks are so deep he will just fold his $73 if you raise here unless he has a very narrow range.

A club will only come on the turn 16% of the time so it's not that big of a deal in the scheme of things. Just don't fold flop LOL

Seriously bro? You flopped the 2nd nuts when the 1st is highly unlikely especially given pf action. If you are folding this to a flop raise quit playing poker

Agree with everyone else, never folding here. The huge RR is almost never top set, the only hand we are behind. This is very often top pair w a flush draw or combo draw.

I click it back and am happy to get it in, even this deep.

never ever ever fold.

No, we can never fold. The only way I fold is if he is some weird dude who flips his cards up and says 'I don't want you to catch your flush. Please fold' and he shows JJ.

So, no, I'm never folding. 3-bet the flop all day.

176/call shove

/End Thread except for results

Don't need results this is super standard.

Did OP call or raise? If he raised, to how much? I guess I'm curious to know what the decision was...in game.

He is never raise folding here. That being the case we are ahead of every villains range here with the possible exception of super nits. Lets Ship it in

I'd do the same. However, OP noted that the raiser making it $76 was strangely large. I'm curious to know if this massive show of strength was JJ like I suspect or some kind of Pair + FD.

For the sake of the thread, lets pretend to range V here:

Range:
JJ
22
1 combo of *ANYTHING* else which we will put as 34 to make it a reasonable hand, but it can be something else including AJ JX or plenty of other hands.
We are ahead of his range. His is not folding to a raise with any hand in this range. And we are raising for fat value. So raise. (Ok, not fat value, but value still.)

Board: 2c 5c Js
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 48.874% 48.87% 00.00% 3387 0.00 { JJ, 22, 4c3c }
Hand 1: 51.126% 51.13% 00.00% 3543 0.00 { 5d5h }


Board: 2c 5c Js
Dead:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 46.604% 46.60% 00.00% 3691 0.00 { JJ, 22, AcJc, 4c3c }
Hand 1: 53.396% 53.40% 00.00% 4229 0.00 { 5d5h }

(Just to prove it.)

I can only assume that you posted this hand because either
A) He had JJ and you think you should have "known better"
B) You folded because you think he had JJ and "you knew better"

Both of these are mistakes. Get the money in.

I don't think you can ever flat here, so many cards are just an absolute nightmare to see oop.

It's tough because a re raise screams set, but I like that better than anything else, make it ~$200 and gii when he jams, because he's never folding.

if he calls your flop raise, jam 100% of turns.