Hello,

I have question of what would be the better play in this situation.

So this was at 1/2 $ game, table has become shorthanded with 6 players. I had nothing going whole session. Table has been very crazy with lots of raising and 3 betting, I had been folding most of the time due to being really card dead. saw very few flops maybe two the whole session and whiffed and had to fold to pressure.

On to the hand. I am on the button, Players involved are UTG+1 and BB. UTG+1 a nit player, have not seen him get out of line and has shown down mostly big pairs, big Ace type of hands, also has shown some good discipline folding those hands on scary boards facing aggression. BB is the crazy aggressive player who has been running over the table mostly due to his smashing lots of boards that session. He has showndown less than premium starting hands that got lucky and hit 2 pair, flush etc... Bets and raises with any piece of the flop or his draws. I had been playing really tight and had not been involved in more than 2 or 3 hands that session.

Effective stacks 340$ ( me ! both cover me)
UTG+1 opens to 8$ I look down at 8c7c on the btn and (boredom) call, BB calls, everyone else folds.

flop comes 4c5h6h (25$), BB checks, UTG +1 bets really small 8$, I obviously want to put more in the pot but having the nuts and against utg whom I put on big pair or big Ace hand and him having really very little chance to improve so I raise to a smallish 20 $, now BB reraises me to 67$, UTG+1 hates his life, tanks for a while then says I really have a hand and then proceed to folding what I think is QQ. I instantly put BB on FD Kx of hearts (he would have 3bet any Axs).

Ok so now I have 312$ behind and pot is 92$. what is the best way to get value. If I reraise gii here as a 65% favorite I am 200% sure BB will call with his draw. My question is, would it be better to slow play in this case, call, see a safe turn and gii on a safe turn (non heart) as a 80%. BB is never folding before the river based on history.

Appreciate feedback
Thank you

Get it in.
/thread

If you're 100% sure that villian will call when you are far ahead, get it in duh!

Poster above me has the right idea. Get it in. /thread

thanks for the answers.
I don't think it is time to /thread yet

I know it is profitable to gii otf as 65%, and as mentioned I know villain is not folding his draw before the river so the money can go in right there otf or ott.

I am asking which is more optimal play, gii otf 65% favorite or call the flop raise (slow play) and gii on safe non heart turn card as an 80% favorite?

really looking for numbers to back up the answer (I suck at math )

thanks again for all feedback

GII on the flop is equivalent to blindly GII on any turn. If you are 100% sure V will stack off on any non-heart turn, then it is better to flat flop and GII on non-heart turns.

Your question is basically: Is it better to get stacks in on every turn or just non-heart turns?

The answer is pretty obvious, no?

Get it in. He doesn't always have flush draws. Sometimes this is top two or a lower straight and lots of cards kill action. Make it 200, shove all turns. /thread

If it were a c/r I'd flat and use pos. and get ai ott.

I don't think there are too many times someone will c/cold 3-bet/fold. So shoving the flop is fine to me. It looks like a big shove, 5x the bet, but the line he took is more important than the overshove sizing.

I remember a guy donking once with $100 and I made it $600 because after he donked for more than pot into 5 people, he was just never folding and the sizing didn't matter.

If you are 100% sure he has a flush draw (you aren't), and he calls all-in 100% of the time on non-heart turns (he doesn't), then sure, wait till the turn to get it in.

However, he has more hands in his range than flush draws, and there are many scare cards that can come (for him, and for you), that will halt the action on the turn and stop stacks from going in. What if he actually has 66 here, and a heart comes on the turn, and you convince yourself that he has a flush and fold because of your absurd "100% read" that he has a King high flush draw? What if he has 66, and a 3 comes on the turn, and he folds his set?

getting it in on the flop is 1000x better than waiting for the turn in this spot. sorry the flush draw came in after you shoved, that's poker.

/thread.

Why do you guys think he has a fd? Who c/cold 3-bets a flush draw oop? Looks way more like a set to me. But half the deck kills the action ott so getting it in now > waiting.

I don't think anyone thinks he has the flush draw, but the OP stated "I instantly put BB on FD Kx of hearts (he would have 3bet any Axs)." and then used it as justification for calling to se a safe turn before committing.

lol

IF you only saw 2 flops the whole session, Villain has to peg you as SUPER NIT, you raised and he 3b you. If you're going to fold to a heart, then gii here to protect you from yourself.

Perfect time to gii, as others have said.

If he's willing to go broke on a draw, so be it.

grunch:

V has a set here pretty frequently as well as some 2 pair combos, 8x7x sometimes and possibly a couple bluffs (doubtful). I really don't think there are a huge amount of flush draws in his range except Ah7h which is no better against you than a set, and 8h7h which would just be super unlucky for you. The c/3b oop is rarely a semi-bluff. You have the nuts, V is representing a hand that will get it all in right now. So either $130/c or just jam.

Shove>4b/c>flat 3b

And OP, you shouldn't worry about getting it in as a 65/35 or 80/20. An edge is an edge. Allowing V to set the price for the turn is a mistake because so many turns kill your hand or kill your action.

You need to ask yourself: if I flat the 3b and a heart peels, am I just folding to V's turn bet? What about any 4,5 or 6? What's my plan if the turn is a black 7 or 3?

Thanks for all the great feedback guys and all the different point of views.


@fitzthetaxman, @Dubey
absolutely, V could have 2p or set, however I had more weight on the semi bluff FD in his range given my preflop passive line. I just flatted pre then I reraised a nit on this flop, so V can only do this for value with specifically a set or my same hand 78, I doubt 2p hand has a lot of weight in his range in this spot. @ShowdownValue Ah7h makes lots of sense now come to think of it even though I think this specific V would have most probably 3 bet pre with that. I do understand that it is possible my flop reraise was small enough to maybe induce this raise from BB with 2p hand.

Thanks for the great pointers and the reason that you mentioned that many turn cards could scare me or kill my acion is why I end up tank jaming otf.

@eldiesel
V line made the sizing irrelevant as you said since he made it clear he was not folding

@ Tiresman
Thanks, If I flat his raise otf my plan on a heart turn is depending on V actions I would evaluate my options. probably call one street if he leads and reeval his river actions trying to get to a showdown. If he checks I would probably bet/fold turn around half pot and check back river if he calls my turn bet.

@ShowdownValue
Thanks for the great analysis. Appreciate it and agree with it.


I did end up tank jaming otf against vilains KhQh and he did call and river the flush you guessed it there Dubey which is probably why I post this to check if it was a bit better to wait for a non heart turn.

Thanks again to all for great feedback.

to add , I am 100% convinced now Jaming otf was the right play and is >>>> any other action.

Hopefully you rebought I don't think villain could have played the hand any worse

Interesting that you can just "put" someone on their exact hand in your analysis. Set is very likely, 2p is very likely as well.. I agree jam flop, however I'd really like to know how you instantly put him on Kx hh just a guess?

@thec0de yes pretty much a guess but backed up with this Villains history in this session. He showed willingness to gii with flop draws multiple times. Also playing his monsters a little slower post.

He was doing loads of 3 betting pre, any pair would have justified a 3 bet pre for this V which is why I put less weight on sets in this spot also any zooted Ace too in my mind. ok he could have 65, 54, a set or my exact same hand too. Not ruling those out just putting more weight on the FD based on what I have seen from this V.

This is why medium stack NL is such a tricky game to play. I hate having 340 here. less than 250 and it is an easy jam, more than 500 and you get to make a normal raise and he either calls (mistake), raises (mistake), or folds (good choice but at least you get the pot). If he calls, you get to give him the option of folding a ton of equity or making another large mistake on the turn, which is exactly the kind of spot you want to be in.

With your stack size I think jamming is fine, but not optimal, because it is going to make it easy for him to fold a hand you want calling. You got lucky that he couldn't lay his hand down.

The more I play live, the more I see the merits in either playing pretty short or playing at least 250 BB deep. The middle sucks.

Well played OP, bad luck.


I would pay a little more attention to his 3-betting tendencies, as I think it is a mistake to assume he would 3-bet AhXh.

KhQh is actually a superior hand to Ace-Rag suited. The fact that he didn't 3-bet with it leads me to believe you may be a bit off on his 3-bet range.