this is all speculative and pretty much irrelevant. OP said villain can get out of line. does that mean hes capable of double barreling? if so then maybe calling would be best. my guess is that villain is not going to double barrel all that often when we flat, and anything is IS going to bet again on the turn after we call is going to call a raise or 3b ship on the flop. for example, if he has the Ks hes going to call a raise. if he has red QQ, our best chance to get another bet out of him is probably on the flop. Anything that can improve to a second best hand is calling a raise, and the weak hands aren't really going to give us more action anyways, so why not raise.

the only reason to not raise is that we think he is going to barrel off his stack, which we don't have that read

I was going to write this long post but then realized we are
In the perfect spot to steal this pot.
2/3 of our opponents are thinking players and could
Possibly see this as an attempt to steal.. does our play
In general consist of any steals hero?

people are saying that some of vernan's post is irreleant
Which is absurd. Everyone's post is relevant AS is each
Player in a hand w us imo. And If he says its not smart to count on
V2 spazzing out from experience I welcome that knowledge

Also v2 has only invested $20 into this hamd why TF would
He be c/s

i bolded the speculative parts

you cannot think of literally one other reason not to raise?

of course its all speculative. we have to assign ranges and hands to a player to figure out the best move. everything in hands analysis is speculative. im saying the 'spade only comes 17% of the time, ill gamble and flat' is the speculative part, because its assuming that if the spade doesnt come the villain is stacking off which is moot, because if hes stacking off on the turn on a non spade then hes stacking off on the flop.

in general, when do you think villain is more likely to put money in the hand with a raise? do you think it is on the flop, or on the turn?

what do you think villain will do with his entire range that bets the flop? if he has a super strong hand he will go with it regardless, correct? if yes then it doesnt matter when we raise, but it likely is better to raise the flop just in case a bad card come out that causes us to lose value.

if he has a bluff, it doesn't matter what we do because he is going to check fold the turn anyhow.

so on one hand we have a situation where it doesn't matter when we raise because hes stacking off, and we have air which hes folding. those hands do not matter in our decision.

so lets look at the other middle value hands he "could have". lets use QQ. do we think he is more likely to put more money in on the flop or on the turn if we raise? you can neglect the fact that a spade comes on the turn, lets just pretend its a low non board pairing diamond. do you think if he bets the turn again he is going to just ship over a turn raise? i personally do not. but i do think he can look at a flop raise and add hands in like P+FD, or Over+FD into our range and make a case for 3b shipping the flop.

the same thing with 2 pair, or a set. if he has middle set here hes always stacking off on the flop, and maybe 17% of the time when a spade does fall we do not get his stack because he c/f. and maybe sometimes he reads our hand for what it is when we call, then raise turn, knowing that with no FE we are never raising the turn with worse and he releases a hand he would have stacked off with on the flop.

what about a combo draw, Qs10x? that hand he will literally b3b the flop with as well because its so strong against our entire range.

when we look at all these types of hands, can you tell me what hands are in his range that calling the flop will allow him to stack off on a non spade turn where he wouldnt stack off if we raised the flop, and what hands will he stack off with if a spade does hit the turn if we flat (which i think is somewhat pointless because i think if hes stacking off on a spade turn then hes stacking off on the flop but just to get your noodle working)

Table read .. You could do the old 'spade check' and flat or raise here. With multiple players in the pot I probably would tend to flat more IP so I can deal with the board pairing or another flush card AND the other players body language on each street before acting. However I would probably raise OOP so I can c/c boards that may pair or see another flush card OTT.

Raising certainly could be the right move if you opponents have the 'right' hole cards, but this all comes down to feel and Hero history in these spots as well. GL

Given the descriptions of Vs it's an easy flat and hope V2 lags it up with a c-r. We really want them both to come along.

If V2 flats, it's not the worst thing in the world as V1 will probably c-bet just about anything on the turn.

well, my post was in response to one of yours which was criticizing another as speculative. if it is all speculative, this would be a weak criticism, no? regardless, stating the probability that a spade comes is definitively not speculative, and you are actually asserting that part about gambling speculatively, which is really not what that poster was saying (i think); the assertion is also wrong anyways.

you basically make a bunch of black/white assertions about how V will behave in a few situations and conclude that raising is best. many of those assertions appear to be wrong and based on faulty logic, but perhaps more importantly, you are drawing your conclusion from a small, handpicked, non-representative sample of possible outcomes to draw your conclusion, so it seems like a stretch that the conclusion you draw realistically approximates the ev of our possible actions. for fear that my noodle will be overworked, i will stop here.

the assertion is not wrong because it is based on my experiences, which is the point of posting on a forum, to discuss your experience. it is in my experience that if a person is going to stack off a hand on the turn that does not bring a suit to a monotone flop, then they would have stacked off on the flop. have you seen people call with JJ here on a turn then say 'well played, i would have folded if you shoved the flop'? i sure havent.

i was criticizing the a spade only comes 17% as speculative. the reason i criticize it is because the spade coming can only hurt us. if he has a hand that will stack off when a spade hits, then it is very likely that he will also stack off on the flop, whether that hand be KsXx or a set or top two. if the spade does not hit and he is willing to stack off i also assert by my own observations that he would be willing to stack off on the flop. the only time it is bad is when he would have stacked off on the flop but now will not because the spade hit.

dude, you seem like a smart guy, but honestly you are overthinking this.

my 'black and white' assertions are not based on faulty logic. first off they have to be black and white, otherwise we have a huge gray area and everyones response is 'it depends'. they are based on how the majority of villains who fit the described villains image react with a different range of hands, from weak, to medium to strong. that is how hand analysis is done when you are responding to a hand on an internet forum. we only have the info at hand, and we have different people on the boards making posts about how they would handle the situation based on their history.

how can you say my outcomes are based on a small, handpicked, non-representative sample of possible outcomes? do you find it useful to discuss 'all' possible outcomes? im not sure how my examples are hand picked, unless you are referring to using red QQ, but if you are a poker player then you know red QQ is equivalent to red KK for all intents and purposes here. i gave a basic example of a hand in the range. you could just as easily use weak, meduim strong, or weak, weak medium, medium, medium strong, strong, and figure out how you think the person would react to a raise with each hand, or how they might react to a call and further turn action.


the other discussion about V2 (i think) who 'looked a certain way like he was strong' is pretty much moot in the discussion, because none of us were there to confirm if we think he is strong or not. if you want to decide on a play based on this information then the question about the hand is "what should i do here if i think V2 is strong based on this look"

and i think i understand why i think you are overthinking this too much. i must admit i grunch about 90% of the threads i post in, and pretty much only check back the subscription to see if anyone has responded to my posts. after reading the above quoted section tonight, plus

i think you are putting way too much emphasis on things that almost have no bearing. if OP said V3 loves getting out of line with draws in multiway pots and will stick it in regardless of action, as long as there is no raising, then i could see you using something like this as a reason to call. when someone says

i pretty much throw it out the window. its a useless statement mostly because V3 probably doesnt get out of line too much. if he does however, and it was relevant to the hand in question, then the OP 100% would have included this relevant info. for all we know his getting out of line can mean raising too much preflop, and has nothing to do with post flop multiway pots on monotone flops with multiple people who have put money in post flop. just because we classify someone as a spaz, doesn't mean they are going to spaz in any given situation. there would have to be some piece of info to take me from 'can get out of line way too much' to 'capable of making a move in a multiway pot on a monotone flop'.