1/2 NL. $250 effective.

We limp 44 in MP over two limpers. 3 more limps to the villain on BTN who makes it $16. We make the call as the rest of the table folds and we are heads up to a K 4 9 r flop.

VILLAIN: Over 60 white male with a poker t shirt and hat. We have been at the table for about an hour and haven't seen much from villain. Seems weak/tight, although he did play one hand aggressively against us when we first sat down: $200 effective. We open TT UTG+1 over a limp to $12. 3 callers including Villain in the BB and we see a flop of 5h 6d 3h. Villain donks $25 into us very quickly and we call as does one other. Turn is 9d and Villain instantly puts in $100. We fold here but the other guy puts the rest of his short stack in. River is a brick and villain turns up Ad5d and scoops the pot.

I thought he played the hand oddly but what the hell do I know.

Back to the hand in question....

I check/call a bet of $25 on the flop. Turn brings another K. What now? Are we leading this turn? Another c/c looks suspicious IMO but we know V wont fold any King ever here. I can't see many K's in his range though besides AK or maybe KQs but thats a stretch. His pre flop sizing is indicative of AKs or a big pair. We know most fish raise bigger based on the absolute strength of their hands and up to this point we have not seen V open for more than $12.

So we know V won't fold three Kings and he most likely won't fold AA but our c/c on the flop would make QQ , JJ and TT apprehensive.

So we do check, knowing that if V improves we will be second best but he may put out a blocking bet either now or on the river...or better yet he will value own himself with AK.

V checks behind on turn.

River is J.

We lead $50 and V snap min-raises to $100.

Easy fold right?

Edit: I forgot to add the obvious KK which is also in his range.

Hmm ... Unless you have a live read, I'm AI as played. Cooler if he has 99 or KJ.

AK is in his range and if he called A5s, probably can include KQs. His sizing is based on dead $ in, so I would not read anything more there.

Pre - may be a fold unless you think there are true implied odds, i.e. he will pay off with an over pair.

Flop - I'd CR with the money card OTF. Looking to get stacks in by the turn.

River is annoying, but I'm calling here. The chance he has AK/KQ is high enough that I'm not folding for a min raise. Your hand is under repped and many villains would check turn with KX to keep lower pairs in.

This is a situation where I could fold, call or raise depending on villain. With no real history and just some basic clues that villain is bad, I'm just calling.

It's like $50 to win $230. Our hand is underrepped. He could be value raising with a king. This is an easy call.

I'm betting the flop 50% of the time and as played leading the turn for $80. Just get the money in ASAP.

I prefer a flop lead because that way you dictate the action and can bet flop, bet turn, and ship river. Villain won't fold AK if we take that line. If he has a hand like JJ or QQ he will fold but we can't get much value from those hands anyways. The majority of value will come against AA, AK, and KQ.

Also, vs some villains it will allow us to get away from our hand if we are raised, but make no mistake the primary reason I'm leading flop is for value.

This villain is not thinking about dead money and is most likely not making that size pre with 99 and is certainly not with KJ

Just my opinion but I think the line OP is fine.

With $16 were getting a little better than 15-1 set-mining odds. If the table limps calls a good percentage of the time or if we can easily stack V then set mining can easily be +EV.

Flop should be a c/c in my opinion. If we c/r, that folds out most of villains range that we beat (TT-QQ, KQ and sometimes AK). I feel that with these types of villains we can usually get another bet out of them on the turn or even get a crying call on the river.

I feel turn should be when we c/r. Most often when V bets here he has at least has some value. Again if V checks we can usually get some value on the river, if V folds, we most likely wouldn't have gotten any value had we lead the turn.

On the river I'm probably shoving here. V could have KK, JJ, 99, maybe KJ. But he could also have AKs, AKo, KQs, maybe KQo or a spaz AA. Also, with the snap-reraise, I feel that would lean more towards villain having trips or AA given previous hand history.

I would usually raise pre but limping is fine I guess. As played lead the flop since Kx is never folding, AA is always raising, and other pocket pairs probably don't fold to one bet. If he has a strong hand you get all his money, if he has a weak hand he's not paying you off anyway. Stacks should have been in by the river, if you got coolered then reload and move on.

if op loses the hand, jj is way more likely than kj and kk, combined