V1 has never played in the game. I know him to be an extremely tidy, neat person, bordering on OCD levels. I assume he is going to be a very tight player. He is by far the least experienced player in the game.

V2 is a very loose and gambley calling station. Will make some bluffs post-flop, but haven't seen him raise light pre. Will raise pre with strong hands, otherwise will limp with almost anything except the very worst hands. Have seen him call down with middle pocket pair on wet boards.

First hand of the night, both villains have bought in for $100. I have bought in for $200. Blinds are .50/1

V1 limps UTG, V2 limps UTG+1, 3 more limps, SB folds, Hero checks in the BB with 44.

Flop is KJ4r. (Pot $7)

Hero checks. V1 leads for $5. V2 calls, the rest fold to Hero. I raise to $30. V1 raises to $55, V2 calls. Hero?

V1's line screams KK/JJ, but I think even novice players will raise pre with that holding. However, if V1 will raise with those hands, we would have to assume he would also raise with AK and AA. This means his range is basically KJ only.

However, if V1 will limp with KK/JJ pre, then he will also limp with AA and AK. This gives him a range of AK, AA, J4, K4, KJ, JJ, and KK. V2 is never good here. He has QT at best but with this much in the middle, he has committed his whole stack.

I think the question boils down to this: does V1 ever take this line with worse than a set? Or is folding totally MUBSy?

Is that a home game?

Yes

If I was invited to that game and whitness you actually waste everyone`s time by considering folding that hand, I would not come back.

Are you really asserting a total novice a range of only sets in that spot? Just because he looks clean?

Maybe I didn't explain it well in the OP, but I know him personally and he is extraordinarily neat and I am not exaggerating when I say it borders on OCD, as in something you see a doctor for, not in the perjorative sense. I don't mean he's a clean cut guy that stacks his chips neatly. I mean his home, car, office, clothes, even his effing cat is always spotless.

when you flop a set, you should always think you have the best hand unless you have some amazing read. plus they only have 100BB stack. ship it in unless they put their cards faced up.

with that said, you only need to think of getting max value with your set.

you probably don't have enough bankroll for this stake lvl, I guess, you are playing scared poker.

it's really tough to comment on home games, but I kinda think you're leveling yourself with your logic here. Why can't he have KJ as a good chunk of his range?

Um, at 100bb stacks, you can never fold a set here. Your only concern is how to get all the chips in the middle of the pot. The easiest way to do that is to say all-in. It's entirely possible he has KK/JJ, but as you said, if he limps those hands he'll limp AK/KJ as well. If this were much deeper I would say slow down, but at these stacks, just shove.

I don't think there's going to be much more analysis to do here, based off of initial responses.

Based off his flop actions, I ranged him to KJ/JJ/KK and only briefly thought about him having a set and jammed. My question is whether I should have given any additional weight to KK/JJ or discounted KJ, given the player type.

It’s ridiculous to narrow a beginners range so much. I know beginners who can show up with 77 here.

Idk, its kinda weird. Its a novice at a home game for the first time. Is this a very friendly home game?? Do people limp a lot, or is there a decent amount of raising going on from the people who are regulars in this game? The only way I can give him credit for KK/JJ is if he wants to play super passive initially to get a read on how people play. I know I've done this on occasion, but even then, I would not limp KK, MAYBE JJ, but that's a stretch.

But, I don't see this hand playing out any other way than just shoving after he raises...

Yes, this is MUBSy. You should go ahead and shove here, if you are beat you are beat, sounds more like KJ to me than KK or JJ.

If you are folding bottom set here you are so exploitable it’s not even funny.
If he’s a novice he probably is making novice mistakes like limping AA hoping to trap then getting cracked by 44. More likely he has AK or KJ. Ship it.

Weird situation but against a novice I'm not folding. If he has never played poker before then the chance he is miss reading the situation or playing weirdly is too high. He might raise the flop with AK to find out where he is or just over valuing a weaker hand.

If he is going to play super nitty poker where you might fold bottom set against his min raise, then he has to prove it first.

This was my exact thinking. If this hand had come 30 minutes later, it would have been a fold. He was clearly betting for value, but I was extremely confident he had KJ. I figured if he had a set in his range then he also had AK, AA, KQ, and even some combos of K4 and J4, making that a call too. Just not much recent experience with a player like that.

Turns out he was super nitty, and at one point folded top pair OTF because there was a flush draw. Another player politely criticized him, and he somewhat sarcastically asked me (Mr. Math Guy) what the odds were of another club coming. I told him roughly 36% and he said he didn't want to risk money when there was that much of a chance at losing. ***headdesk***

So yeah, he was super exploitable but after tripling up he basically quit betting, plus he was to my immediate left.

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Cooler and on first hand would have been criminal to fold. I used to try and talk myself into folding bottom set on certain boards, especially if/when I had been losing. Over your career, if you never fold a set for 100 blinds on any board, you will make a crap ton of $$.

I have zero clue how a 0.5/1 game works with $200 stacks, especially regarding how easily those 200bb stacks go in. In my 1/3 NL game, for example, $600 stacks go in exactly never unless it involves a loose cannon or ~nuts over ~nuts. But I'm not sure if the same thinking applies for 200bbs at a 0.5/1 home game.

And on top of that the most difficult thing to take into account is this guys a noob, so how does he behave in these spots? I recently played a 1/3 NL game with family on a camping trip where everyone at the table was a noob. The HHs are beyond hilarious, and to the point where I probably should never fold TP. But it was also for play money and didn't mean anything; if it was for real money, where $300 means a heckuva lot to almost everyone at the table, perhaps the HHs would have played a lot differently.

In almost every game I play, if you get in 200bbs with bottom set in a multiway limped pot, you've made a *huge* mistake. It isn't a cooler, not even remotely close. In this spot, it's tougher, especially when you don't quite have a handle on the read yet.

ETA: Just noticed that Villain has $100, so only 100bbs. A lot closer. Still gross. Due to overvalued AA and KJ and whoever knows what, I'm likely attempting to go broke here every time though.

Ggrossspot,imoG

When V2 was deciding on whether to call the min-raise I remember thinking "Does the rule 'Never go broke in a limped pot' apply here?" I guess that is a truism for a reason. Still don't regret stacking off here, but wondered if this Villain was really capable of stacking off on the very first hand with anything other than the nuts.

Being 100bbs deep vs 200bbs deep makes quite a difference (I initially didn't realize we were "only" 100bbs effective).

And again, I really have zero handle on how a 0.5/1 home game works for $100, I have zero experience.

And the noob factor really has to be considered regarding overvalueing.

Overall, cooler, imo.

GcluelessNLnoobG

if you're thinking about folding a set for under 100 big blinds because it's not the nuts, move back down to the .05/.10 coffee table.

There are some OMC nits that I've been playing with for a few years before I could fold a set to their small raise (and there's only one that I can think of). The first hand of the night is not nearly enough time to lay this down confidently.

if this hand was a cooler, it's the reason we have bank rolls.

If he in fact had KK or JJ, this is just a cooler. You will face set over set only once out of every 100 times when you and your opponent have a pocket pair and both flop trips. Most of the time you have the best hand. If you go broke 1/100 and double up 99/100 you are making a huge profit.