The game is 2/3/5 with a $500 max buy in. Effective stacks in this hand are around $700.

Some history:

The first big hand we got involved in was when I stacked him for 100BB when I had AA. I raised to $25 UTG+1 and got 3 callers. Flop came A77 and I lead out flop and it was folded to villian who raised. I just called and did a small donk lead on a Q turn hoping to get raised... villian obliged and I just called again. Forgot the exact river card but it put a backdoor flush on board so I just shoved for less than pot and villian called with 73s (rivering the flush).

There was a second hand where I called his $20 raise OOP with ATs. The flop came Q77 with 2 to my suit. I check called his ~$30 bet and everyone else folded. The turn was a 7 and I lead into him for around half-pot and he called. River was a brick and I lead into him again for half-pot and he said he "had to call" with AJo and we split the pot.

Third hand was quite similar to the above hand where he raised out of the blinds and lead out on a K high board. It when check/check on the flop and I fired a J turn and a 6 river with A9s. He called once again with A high (A6s) and we again split the pot.

Then comes the trouble hand... I raise to $25 with TT and get 3 callers. The flop came 999. I bet $75 and only the villian called. Turn was an 8 and he checked and I bet $170 knowing villian would call with any pair. Turn was a 4 and then villian donked into me for $200 with only $200 behind. Given our history I made a crying call.

Now I want to know if A) should I call this river bet? B) Should I have kept this post smaller from the beginning or is it ok to try and build this pot with a known calling station?

a) Yes. You have shown aggression with A high and he has successfully called you down because of it. This dynamic easily opens his range to smaller FHs.

b) Results-oriented. If someone is a calling station, their leak is calling too much with relatively weak hands. You want to value bet these guys to death.

Sorry you lost to quads but, yeah, you lose hands in poker sometimes. Don't alter your game because of it.

I read the title and was expecting some hand like AA on a flop of A88 and you're worried he had pocket 8's. In that situation, I call the river bet. He's showing up with 8x, 4x and any PP. Hell even AK sometimes or just air. The whole hand it looks like he was setting up a heist and that river bet is not a value bet. If he had a better hand, he realizes you have a good hand, and shoving the river would more likely induce a call than betting 200. I think he wants you to fold, therefore call and rake in his chips

First off, thank god somebody is finally paying attention at the table and can give some history. It really isn't that hard to watch how people play and give a few examples of how they have played some hands

Otf I don't like the $75 bet into the $100 pot. Generally we want to cbet lower on dry flops (and this flop is f dry) since everyone is wa/wb. On this flop it's mostly gonna be pair over pair so somebody has 2 outs. I'd typically bet $40-$45.

But all of that said, villian is unique in that he is a calling station so maybe we can get more value out of him. I want to bet the max here that he will call w/A high or even K high. We also have to have a plan for the hand. Do we want to fire 3 barrels against A high? Can we fold if we get raised?

Looking at the 3 hands you all played he is definitely a station calling multiple barrels w/A high. The only aggression he showed in any of the hands was a flop and turn raise w/trips, so so far when he raises he has the obvious strong hand. He also hasn't bluffed at all, and the fact that he called down w/A high twice leads me to believe he won't bluff a hand as strong as A high. That means if he does bluff it has to be complete trash.

I still wouldn't be thrilled to fold TT to a raise on any street assuming no overcards hit. Then again, the fact that villain is unlikely to turn A high into a bluff (particularly on this board where it has more sdv than on the other boards he called down on) means if he raises he has to have some kind of pair he's raising for vlaue.

In the mean time I want to bet the TT for value. I kind of like the bet small for value 3 streets/fold to a raise line after thinking a little more about villain's raising range. If an overcard hits I'm still probably going to bet it knowing villain will still surely call w/worse and it's easier to fold to a raise.

So on this flop I'm going to bet $40. Big enough to get decent value vs worst, but small enough to entice his K high or even QJ to call (possibly trying to hit a fh). Also no so big that we're bloating the pot too much oop.

Oh, wait a sec I just noticed we're ip. That makes life easier and may allow us to value bet a little bigger since it's easier to play a big pot ip. I'm not value betting much bigger though, maybe $50.

So the turn is an undercard and you bet it, that's all good...

Now villain donks $200 when pot is $590. We're getting 3.7:1
We need 21% equity to break even on a call. Here's what 21% equity looks like

Board: 9c 9d 9h 8d 4s

Hand 0: 21.212% { TcTd }
Hand 1: 78.788% { KK-JJ, 88, AKs, A9s, K9s, A9o, K9o }

I don't like that you said you made the call given your history. The history indicates that he is a passive calling station, not someone who is going to lead into the aggressor light.

This actually could be a fold depending on how loose villain is pf (the looser he is the more 9s in his range) and how likely he is to raise w/bigger pps. Here is another ~break even range:

Board: 9c 9d 9h 8d 4s

Hand 0: 22.619% { TcTd }
Hand 1: 77.381% { KK-TT, 88-77, A9s, K9s, Q9s, J9s, T9s, 97s+, A9o, K9o, T9o }

And here is my attempt at an honest assessment of his range:

Board: 9c 9d 9h 8d 4s

Hand 0: 41.892% { TcTd }
Hand 1: 58.108% { QcQd, QcQh, JJ-TT, 88, A9s-A8s, K9s, Q9s, J9s, T9s, 97s+, A9o-A8o, K9o }

This is a slam dunk call, even though we're only good ~42% of the time b/c it's twice as often we need to break even. What really made a difference was the A8 hands that he calls with twice then leads the river thinking it's good.

As always it's hard to know exactly what villain will donk, but until proven otherwise I'd assume it's wider than TT+ which is gonna include his 8s and give us proper odds to call

this- call

Thanks for the breakdown but I would think you need to add all pairs 44+ to the above range.

The reason the hand played out this way was precisely because of our given history.. given another opponent I probably would have pot controlled a bit. At the time of my flop bet I didn't know who would be involved so I believe it was too big to be correct (as everyone mentioned). I happened to luck out that only the calling station called so I decided to go for maximum thin value on the turn and possibly river. Now lets change up the opponent for a moment to a more "standard" 2/5 player. What lines do you thin I should take?

How many 8x or 4x hands can he possibly have here given that it's a raised pot preflop where he called two streets? How does he really get to the river with 4x?

As far as air, it'd be bizarre to stick in $75+$170 with air just to attempt to bluff $200 on the river, doesn't seem very effective to me.

So you're saying someone who will call $25 out of position preflop with 73s is not capable of floating twice and barreling a bluff? Idk where you play man, but usually players don't go from stone cold ******ed to pro in a single sitting.

I'd put A8s and A4s in his range as well. He made a hero call with AJ earlier in the hand history provided.

Solid post, no need for me to elaborate further...

I doubt Villain would be described as "going from stone cold ******ed to pro in a single setting" just because it doesn't make much sense for him to have a 4 in his hand here.

I would venture to say quite a lot actually. Playing with this guy for a few hours I definitely got the impression he was a bit of a calling station. Now what really changes the hand/his range is when he bets the river. This basically polarizes his range to the nuts or air. Given this is live poker I find that big river bets/raises are rarely air. I actually don't think the turn sizing was too bad given my reads but the river is probably a fold.

I don't understand the above post at all. You opine that he can easily arrive at the river with an 8x or 4x hand, then about-face and change his range to the nuts or air. Which is it?

I guess he's saying that stop-n-go is polarized, and couldn't come up with a term or explanation of it.

He could have easily called down to the river with an 8x, 4x or any pair but when all of a sudden he leads it polarizes his range... he is either doing this with the nuts or (shouldnt have said air) turning his hands into a bluff basically.