Go easy on me, first ever thread!

Prehand Descriptions

Villain (BB): White, early 20s, tightish pre (although has limped a few times oop so I don't think he is an internet player) and pretty abc post, not seen him get out of line. Doubled up KK vs QQ all in pre. Only been playing for 1 hour so not sure how reliable reads are.


Hero (MP+1): Late 20s, white, tight pre, aggressive post, have only had one hand go to showdown so far vs a shortstack (my AA held up vs 1010). Taken a few other pots down with cbets when its been 2-3 handed post flop.

$1/3 NL (10 handed)
UTG (£50)
EP (£120)
EP+1(£280)
MP Hero (£210)
MP+1 (£180)
MP+2 (£170)
CO (£90)
Button (£120)
SB (£100)
BB Villain (£200)

Hero is dealt 9 9

3 folds, hero bets £6, 5 folds, Villain calls

Raised to start building pot as I want to be able to get stacks in if I hit, and also to take control of the hand.

Flop (£13) Q,9,3
V checks, Hero bets £10, V calls

Betsizing alright? Against a drooler I'd probably overbet slightly as they'd be calling with any q as well as flush and straight draws

Turn (£33)

8

V1 checks, Hero bets £25, villain shoves after about 5 seconds

How rare is it for an unknown to do this without j10 or diamonds? Need to call £159 to win £395. 2.48 - 1, so not good enough odds to draw to the FH.
Anyone folding here? Will post results later.

Check behind on this turn. You're basically turning your set into a bluff by betting.

Edit, n/m I read that as 4 diamonds on board.

you'd have to give this opponent credit for a straight at the minimum w/o more info and fold.

at least he let you off easy by massively over betting the turn and losing any sort of value you could have gotten from you.

I would probably c/c the turn for pot control and reval otr.

This. If he does have the straight or flush and the river pairs the board you're getting his stack.

Hero is IP so can't c/c. I think you have to bet turn for value, as well as to charge any one-diamond hands. When he shoves it's an easy fold.

Thanks for the responses guys, I ended up calling at the time (after having the clock called on me) which I think is probably a leak going by what everyone is saying. Funny thing was the guy had QJ!



The rest of the table then spent the next 20 minutes telling me how much of a donk I was for even considering laying down a set.......

Darn, why did you post your result so quickly? Anyway, the c/r turn seems suspicious, why did V bet so much if he hit his straight/flush? I would have checked the turn myself to reevaluate otr.

Btw, I prefer to call what you have as a 'set', 'trips' being you only having one 9 and there are two 9s otf. Obviously, set>trips.

lol. and if you call and lose you are a donk for calling with a flush and straight on board.

Wow, is this a 1/3 NL game from the twilight zone? Not a single player sitting on 100bbs and a $6 raise gets it HU from MP in middle position. Lol. Alternative universe change button, please.

I woulda just open limped and hoped for a very multiway pot where I can setmine. The majority of stacks here are very small; we should have no problems getting them in by the river in a very multiway limped pot.

I think you made a crucial error on the flop. You shoulda bet $15+ but instead only bet $10. This $5 mistake will now make it difficult to play for stacks by the river. By betting $10, now a PSB on the turn of $35 will only create a $100 pot with $150 left on the river (a big overbet is needed to play for stacks). If we simply hadda made it $15 on the flop, then we could bet $45 on the turn and now we have a $135 pot with $135 left, an easy PSB shove for the river. Go upwards of $20 on the flop to make this even easier, imo.

Ug, as played, one of the worst cards in the deck on the turn as it completes every draw. I probably check behind as I'd hate to get blown off my hand. Plus a bet will build a large pot where we might be committed to a river donk. As played, I'd probably sigh fold.

GcluelessNLnoobG

I like your analysis. Just wondering, otf around 2/3 bet is not always the law, then? Wouldn't overbet there pretty much expose your hand as a monster but that it's afraid of draws? Or it wouldn't matter because if V's gonna chase, he's gonna chase be it $10/$13 or $15/13?

I really don't like the idea of overbetting on the flop. This is a road we've been down before, so I'll keep it brief: against a fish, sure, but OP's reads essentially confirm villain to be a thinking player, so giving off obvious betsizing tells against him is not going to be the best way to make money. Imagine if you played against a fellow reg who always overbet when he had the nuts against you, and bet more reasonably with draws and medium strength hands; would he profit from doing this?

Meh, I think even thinking players could level themselves into "hmm, he knows the flop is wet so he has to slightly overbet his whiffed hand to make it look like he's got a big hand and is protecting on this wet board". But even that is probably overthinking things. It's a ~$15 bet into a $12 pot; I just don't see how even the most competent villain can automatically put us on a set here due to a mere $3+ overbet of the pot on the flop.

The game is also incomplete information. Sure, I might *think* a fellow reg is always overbetting the pot against me when he has the nuts, and smaller with weaker hands, etc. But I don't see all the hands (in fact, I probably see only a very small percentage of them). Even I'm going to very quickly level myself into "he's a smart player, maybe he's varying his play" even though he could (for all I know) be doing the exact same play in each and every situation.

GG what is your answer to "Imagine if you played against a fellow reg who always overbet when he had the nuts against you, and bet more reasonably with draws and medium strength hands; would he profit from doing this?" Villain's description sounds like a lot of us LLSNL 2+2ers, so I wouldn't assume he's a lot worse than us without further information warranting it.

I don't think he would instantly put you on a set or anything, but it definitely reduces the chances that you have a draw and essentially eliminates any chance of you having a weak made hand (you're never overbetting with like QJ, for example), making you much easier to play against. Additionally, if this hand goes to showdown, the jig is up on your betsizing tell, and if you've overbet anyone this session already, he may have already picked up on it.

Again, if villain is fishy then an overbet is totally fine, but I'd hesitate to do something this obviously exploitable against a competent opponent.

I still think you're overthinking things here.

We flopped a set.

The board is drawy.

A pot+ bet on the flop enables us to play for stacks by the river (which is our goal unless the board gets stupid).

I mean, what's he going to do? He called with Qx preflop and now he's going to fold cuz we made a $15 bet on the flop instead of a $10 bet? Ok, fine, good for him, hopefully there's not a lotta people at the table like him or else we're in trouble.

Galso,Idon'tnecessarilytrustmyreadswheneverIlabelo neofmyopponents"competent",cuzitusuallyeventuallyt urnsouttheyaren'tG

One of the reasons I bet ~3/4 is because that was the size I had used a couple of times earlier that night on flop c-bets. I was worried that if I overbet it would be picked up. I'd definitely go for a more exploitable line against people I thought were fishier but at the time I thought this guy was semi decent.

I don't think they instantly fold Qx on the flop because you can still be bluffing, but as the hand progresses they'd be more likely to fold when it's clear you're never valuebetting worse. I'm just trying to put myself in villain's shoes as a relatively competent TAG, but as you point out, maybe that's my problem here.

This is very true. A lot of the time I see people who know what sort of starting hands to play, but then do ******ed things post flop. This hand being a good example!

I don't know how I screwed that up, thanks for the catch.