flop trips facing huge over bet 1/2
Join Date: Aug 2013
Posts: 842
FWIW, I think Octavian's first point is pretty valid. I dunno about y'all, but if I flop trips, especially with a bad kicker, the level 1 part of my brain is happy that I hit the flop but also very wary. I know trips, 2pr, and TPTK are hands I can lose a lot of money with. My level 1 thinking when I hit a set is very different. (but Oct, I find the ironic tone of your posts annoying sometimes and see others taking issue with it as well)
As for the hand, it's weird. I know if I were this villain I would never overbet and high PP when the board pairs. The board pairing would make me uncomfortable with my overpair, not comfortable. Furthermore I would raise more PF and less (the amount that the villain raised) with 33 or A2s.
But the villain isn't me; he could just play overpairs weird and be super comfortable. So what I'm saying is that I think this read could go either way. This means our read doesn't tell us much, except that he has high PPs or 33/A2 (i.e., he doesn't have air).
Which means we should include both in our ranging. Also, what do people think about including K2s in his range? I sure hope the villain isn't such a donk that Q2o and J2o, etc. are in his range; that would be really for us.
Still, I vote shove. I'll try counting hands without stove and see what happens. Hope my combinatorics are correct.
Hands that beat us: 33 (combos: 3), A2s (combos: 1), K2s (combos: 1). Total combos assuming the V isn't a huge donk: 5...
Hands that we beat: TT (10 combos, right?) same for JJ+...that's 50 (!) if we go all the way down to TT, -10 for each one we take off.
Join Date: Feb 2010
Posts: 5,287
Raise flop, V is unlikely to fold 77+, turns could kill your action. 2 overs probably won't put much more money in the pot regardless unless they bink. I think playing for stacks here is fine.
Join Date: Mar 2012
Posts: 113
kk so the morons in here are saying that a guy who frequently plays poker is going to flop gin and over bet the pot with the nuts instead of making a normal bet or checking? he would have to KNOW that OP is ******ed and calls with unsuited cards with duces and threes and even then it would be a horrible overbet
Join Date: Feb 2013
Posts: 1,491
Min raise flop and get it in. Stop listening to the octavian and some of the other posters in this thread. Also, fold pre.