Flop an OESD on a monotone board in 4-bet flop, deep, OOP - Live Low-stakes No Limit Poker Forum

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Flop an OESD on a monotone board in 4-bet flop, deep, OOP

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08-23-2023 , 04:36 PM

davomalvolio

old hand

Join Date: Jun 2012 Posts: 1,841

Game is $2-$100 spread-limit, where the most you can bet is $100 over the previous bet. (Ie, if I bet $50 the most you can raise is to $150.)

I start the hand with $400, Villain covers. MP opens to $10, I 3-bet to $30 with JsTs in the CO. Villain on Button 4-bets to $60. Everyone folds to me. I call since I have a pretty good idea what a min-4-bet at LLSNL means, and even though I’m OOP we are very deep.

FLOP: Qd9d3d (pot: $130, heads-up).

I check. Button bets the $100 max.

Is this a fold?

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08-23-2023 , 06:12 PM

Solving Live Poker

journeyman

Join Date: Jul 2023 Posts: 364

JTs only becomes strong enough to 3bet from CO when it's a HJ open. Call or fold the rest of the time.

It's fold to min 4 bet as well. If you only take the flop into account for equity purposes (since you're likely going to face a flop bet)......you only have 5% equity against QQ+. And 15% equity if AK is in his range.

You only have 30% equity at the most if you saw all 5 cards.

You'd be far better off calling with a PP to set mine.

As played, it's a fold on flop with the monotone board.

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08-23-2023 , 06:19 PM

larry the legend

veteran

Join Date: Dec 2006 Posts: 2,500

Yes. My cards beat his chips into the pot fold. Not a fan of the 3b with j10 from before the button and only vs hj or co open, in the game you play.

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08-23-2023 , 08:40 PM

moxterite

old hand

Join Date: Oct 2014 Posts: 1,715

3bet is absolutely fine (calling also OK). 4bet is bad news though - OOP really you have to fold although given min sizing calling can't be a disastrous mistake - haaving said that, does the spread limit work against you?

Flop is a fold. Would have been a decision if the bet had been half the size it was (although still probably a fold)

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08-23-2023 , 09:48 PM

davomalvolio

old hand

Join Date: Jun 2012 Posts: 1,841

Does it being a monotone board push you more into the fold category because we’re worried that the Kd (or 8d) could give him the nut flush, or because we don’t have implied odds when those two hit because he’s unlikely to call two $100 bets with two black Aces if there are four Diamonds on the board?

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08-23-2023 , 10:34 PM

ben voyonsdonc

stranger

Join Date: Aug 2023 Posts: 3

Quote:

Originally Posted by davomalvolio

Both.

You lose an out on each end of the OESD plus if he doesn’t have a diamond and you hit your straight, you aren’t getting paid off. You have poor implied odds (maybe reverse pot odds) to justify the call.

Instead of 8 outs, you probably have at 6 - you have roughly a 12% chance on the next card…and will face another max bet to see the river if the straight doesn’t hit on the turn.

All of this assumes that you aren’t already drawing dead with the monotone board.

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08-30-2023 , 06:51 AM

davomalvolio

old hand

Join Date: Jun 2012 Posts: 1,841

RESULT:

Quote:

FLOP: Qd9d3d (pot: $130, heads-up).

I check. Button bets the $100 max.

I did call.

Turn 4d. I lead for $100 and Button folds two black Aces. “Nice catch,” he says, as they hit the muck.

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