Havax had a post a day or two ago. He limped with JT, hit a straight on a a KQ9 flop. He bet, one opponent called. Turn was another K, pairing the board. Bet, call. River was a blank. Opponent led out for $100 into a $155 pot. Havax's post asks how to respond.

My response was that this is exactly how a weak opponent would play a hand like KT.

That got me thinking: Suppose you really did have KT and limped in for some reason, hit high pair on the flop, then hit the trips on the turn. Even though there is the possibility of a straight, you'd discount this pretty severely. Assuming Havax really does have a TAG image, at what point would you bail on your trips? Especially if you have KT, you would assume there's little chance Havax has a higher kicker, or he would have raised on the button.

So let's say villain had KT and had this like: check/call, check/call, donk out. Is that so awful? The initial check/call seems reasonable. Checking to hide the fact you hit trips could be reasonable. Donking out seems like a mistake, but if your opponent (Havax, in this case) were to bet after you check, would you really lay down your trips?

Why in the world would you do that?

KT isn't a strong hand on that board. Straights aren't strong hands on paired boards, neither are trips.

Many people who post here are bots designed with this algorithm:
Does Hero have a strong hand (even though given the action it's quite likely behind) -> If so print shove.

If they aren't a bot they assume all the Villains are fishes who are spazzing according to that algorithm.

In the real world why would you discount QJ? You have no blockers. Unless you've seen the discard pile you have no reason to assume Villain folds QJ.

What most people are missing is the info that's here: http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/17...value-1485978/

The only thing missing from that post is the admonition not to limp JTo or KTo. Limping them pre, and then over-valuing them post is exactly what weak people do.

This is the sort of situation where knowing your opponent really matters.

How many hands can villain have that KT actually beats in this situation? If villain is super aggressive and will go with bet/bet/bet lines habitually then sure. He will have a lot of bluffs in his range if he thinks he can bet you off a hand that doesn't have a king. Will villain limp with any suited face card and bet/bet/bet with worse kings? Then calling a river bet could be right. If villain is a run of the mill TAG/TAP then there is little to nothing you beat on river. Your hoping villain is over valuing KT/K9 or bluffing, everything else that bets this river beats KT.

To piggy back off this post,the reason that OP sees a disconnect with KT in this hand w this line is that a weak player is taking a line that is inconsistent w any line of good logic.

Basically if we are good and think Vil bluffs too much we should go c/c c/c c/c w this hand on this board to underrepresent our hand and encourage aggression.

If Vil pays off w less we should be going c/c and then bet bet on turn and river for valur

If Vil doesn't pay off w or bet w less we should c/f either turn or river

The c/c c/c donk line doesn't make sense in any context. So if we're good we should develop a plan otf (and really pre have an idea of what we do in this type of situation vs different vils) and follow through on that plan where a weaker player instead just takes every situation at face value and out of context of the relative strength of the hand.

This. Since it was a limped pot, let's just assume that we're the BB with KTo. We flop TP with a gutter. I'd probably b/f in this spot and re-evaluate the turn (against a good TAG on the BTN, I would b/f again on this specific turn if he flats flop). If we're checking, then I guess c/c is reasonable as a TAG on the button could bet a fairly wide range after the flop is checked to him. If we c/c flop, then c/c turn seems optimal. Once we get to the river though, leading out is pretty terrible. A good player who can hand read is never calling with worse, as he shouldn't have any worse Kx in his range and since you shouldn't have any bluffs in your range after c/c twice, he's not calling with bluff-catchers. In fact, leading might be a bluff to fold out specifically KJ (though I expect him to probably make a crying call)! As such, we should c/f river if we get there as played as villain's range for betting all 3 streets has us crushed.

What hand is calling that doesn't beat KT?

Idk kinda hypothetical, but it's 1/2. Maybe they get dumb and call w A4o or something. In all seriousness you do sometimes see two street calls from things like AQ and JJ- at these stakes. Once again you would have to go back to the player type.