I’m by no means an expert on this subject, but people have been asking for a COTM on it. Therefore, I’ll give my thoughts, but hope that those who know more will correct any errors in my OP. Let’s start from the beginning.
Definition: A bet/fold (b/f) situation is when you make a bet with the intention to fold to a villain’s raise.
You don’t make money by folding, so there has to be a good reason to make a bet, then fold your hand. A good place to start is to look at relative hand strength. I like Harrington’s approach in HOC of ranking hands.
1. The nuts
2. The near nuts
3. A good hand
4. A hand of some value
5. Air
It should be obvious that the nuts are not b/f hands. Neither are the near nuts. Near nut hands are things like top FH where someone could have quads. Thinking you are up against the absolute nuts is “Monsters under the Bed” thinking. You really can’t fold.
At the opposite end, it should be obvious that “air” hands are classic b/f hands. If you are raised, it doesn’t matter. You are folding. At low stakes, don’t triple level yourself by thinking, “He’s playing back at me, so I can push him off his hand.” The villain will almost never be doing this enough to pay off.
That leaves good hands and hands of some value. The difference between the two is relative and depends on the board and the action that has gone on. For example, a set is a good hand on a board where a straight is possible. Note that the vast majority of boards are connected enough that a set is not the nuts. With proper betting, you can reduce (but never eliminate) the chance a gutshot makes it. However, a set drops to a hand of some value on the river if the board has 4 cards with the same suit on it. It could still be a winner, but anyone with a card of that suit wins, even if it is the 2.
There are a number of benefits to betting, but there are only three primary reasons to make a bet.
1. To have weaker hands call.
2. To have stronger hands fold.
3. To charge draws for seeing another card.
In my mind, hands of some value are not candidates for b/f. In these situations, a weaker hand can’t call and a stronger hand won’t fold. These are hands that have show down value and you want to get to show down as cheaply as possible. One thing many people forget on the river is that the average winning hand at showdown is two pair. Therefore, if you have TPTK on the river, you no longer have a good hand in many cases. By betting, you can create a RIO situation where you can only lose money.
That leaves good hands as candidates for b/f. They are normally going to be winners. You want to get more value for them. Weaker hands and draws can call. Therefore, betting is in order. I believe it is these hands that get many people in trouble. A lot of the reason for this is that the conditions need to be right for a b/f to be the right play.
Necessary Conditions to Bet/Fold
Stack to Pot Ratio
According to Ed Miller, a huge leak for many players is to commit 40% of their stack, then folding. His reasoning is that by time you’ve put that much of your stack in the pot, any shove by a villain is going to give you over 2.3:1 to call. If you are in a situation where you won’t be good at least 30% of the time, you shouldn’t have put that much of your stack in to begin with. Harrington in HOC makes much of the same point. He suggests that you really can’t get away from hand when the SPR is 2:1.
In practical terms if you started with 150BB effective stacks, you should not be bet/folding (b/f) even in a heads up (HU) situation on the flop when you’ve put in more than 30BB. If it is 3 way, that can drop to 20BB.
Therefore, a b/f is only a move in relatively small pots. You will be deep (+200BB), it is an early street, or there has been some checking going on.
Planning
Another large leak for players in low stakes is that they don’t plan what they want to do in advance of the cards showing up. This is how people who go in situation where they think they are b/f and end up bet/calling. They look at it and say, “well, I’m getting good odds and I could be good, so I should call instead.” There’s a name for those type of players: Calling station.
Most HHs posted on this forum have the leak that the OP didn’t think about how they would handle situations that could come up. B/f is for players used to planning their hand in advance. It requires discipline to give up on a hand in advance based on certain things happening. There’s a little devil on your shoulder whispering, “He’s a donk, he can be bluffing, he might think he has a monster, go ahead and call.” If you can ignore him, then b/f can be for you.
The Villain
You want to b/f against villains that have folding/calling/raising ranges that aren’t strongly polarized. This means that given the board and his range, he’s going to fold his hands that are clearly no good, call with his hands that have a chance to win and raise with his monsters. For example, let’s say you make a non-nut flush on the river. You bet. You know that this villain is never going to raise without the nut flush, but could call you with sets, two pairs or even a pair. Therefore, if he raises, you know you’re beat.
At low stakes, it will be rare that a villain will have a balanced polarized range. For the most part, they will play ABC. Once in a great while they’ll bluff, but not nearly enough to make it worthwhile to consider a call. On the opposite end are those that will be unbalanced trying to bluff everything situation possible. Against those, you shouldn’t be considering a b/f.
Examples
Let’s look at a couple of threads in our forum.
1/3 NL
Hero has $335 in the BB
4 limps, Hero raises to $20 with K
K
, only the UTG+1 calls(and covers).
Only read is that someone told the Hero that the Villain is a fish.
Flop ($50): J
7
2x
Hero bets $40, Villain calls.
Turn ($130): T
Hero bets $80, Villain raises to $205.
http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/17...d-turn-948587/
So let’s look at the situation. The Hero has committed 42% of his stack with the bet on the turn. So we’re at the point where putting 40% of their stack and folding is a leak. Hero is getting almost 3:1 to call. Even against a shove, Hero would be getting over 2:1 to call.
So for the SPR section, Hero put himself in a situation that is destined to be ugly. He clearly didn’t plan. His bets are fairly big and haven’t left him room to get out. If he had bet smaller ($30 on the flop and $60 on the turn), he would have left himself room to run a b/f. Finally, as mentioned in the thread, we don’t know what kind of fish the villain is. A lot of low stakes players are calling stations. If this villain is, Hero will have a swallow his mistake and fold. If he thinks TP is the nuts, he’s got to call. We don’t have a good grasp of how the villain will react.
Combined, we have the limon syndrome.
Quote:
Originally Posted by limon
I love all of the posts that say disregard everthing I did before I got check raised all in on the river and just tell me what to do now. Its like, “hey Dad its me billy and im in jail. Don’t ask me why I got drunk (standard). Don’t ask me why I drove (yawn). Don’t ask me how my car ended up in a 7-11 (meh). Just tell me how to keep from getting buttfuqqed tonight.
The truth is the beginning of the hand is the MOST important part…BY FAR THE MOST IMPORTANT PART. Just like w/ 9 ball every shot sets up the next shot(s).
2/5NL
Live straddle, 3 limpers, Hero has K
Q
OTB and raises to $60. The SB, Straddle and two of the limpers call. Effective stack is $550.
Flop ($300) K
6
3x
Hero bets $125, villain raises to $250.
Read on villain is that he appears to be an on-line young player that did well at a 1/2 table and moved to 2/5 recently. Not aggressive.
http://forumserver.twoplustwo.com/17...ltiway-949400/
Hero has committed 33% of the effective stack but the pot is so big to begin with that there is no room to b/f. In a MW pot, you have less room to b/f than HU. Hero in this case has to either commit to the hand (SPR is less than 2) or just fold.
Summary
Being able to bet/fold is an effective tool to use as a player. Being able to fold when beat is critical to being a winning player. That said, it is a tool that should only be used when the situation is right. In short, the situation is right when
1. You have a good hand, but not the nuts.
2. The SPR is relatively high.
3. You’ve planned your hand so that you can execute a b/f without leaking.
4. The villain is playing a non-polarized and/or unbalanced range of hands.
Let the discussion begin.