1/2 Charity room

Hero($400)
Villain($250)

4 limpers, Hero raises to 15 with KJo. Only caller is villain to my direct right.

History: Villain is in his mid 50s with grey hair and is wearing a denim baseball cap. He has been limping a lot and I have raised him quite a few times. Most of those pots I've taken down with cbets. One pot villain limped I raised to 9 with ATo. flop was Qxx villain check calls my 20 dollar bet. turn and river is checked down and my Ace high is good against his King high.

On to the flop:
T67 two spades. (I have K of spades)
Villain checks I bet 35 into 39. Villain calls.

Turn: 4 of spades
Villain checks. I bet 65 into 109. Villain doesn't take too long to call.

River: Ace of hearts
Villain checks. Hero shuts down or fires away?

You have a lot of money invested to just give up. You fire the turn, the river actually helps as a lot of your bluffing range just hit that card. He might not think like that, but he could put you on AK (lol). The problem is, he either has a flush and is snap calling or has a ten and should fold to a shove.

I would probably shove as I don't like throwing away 115 dollars.

Looks like a good card to barrel. How loose is villain?

To be +EV a 2/3 bet has to get him to fold 37% of the time. Tons of hands like 75s, 54s, 78s, T8s, T9s will fold often. JTo-KTo are going to fold a lot, too. Bet 2/3 pot.

ship mcgipp... he should have a lot of hands in his range that fold... occasionally he has AsT or As8 or a flush but Ithink 135 into 240 is going to show a nice profit bluffing villain off the best hand here.

You need to stop thinking in terms of "how much you have invested" in the pot when making decisions. As soon as money goes into the pot it no longer has an owner. THe amount you've "invested" is only relevant in that it is indicative of how much money is in the pot. BUt its important to disassociate yourself from money placed in the pot to not make decisions because you feel like the money is/should be yours.

I don't really like barreling here. When he calls the turn he's going to have decently strong made hands, pairs with a big spade and straight draws with big spades and naked As.

You probably don't want to try to get him to fold the made hands. A lot of his 1 spade hands had the A. And the other stuff is purely missed draws, which you beat already There are very rare instances for 3barrels at 1/2 imo and this isn't one. Just check it back.

As played, it's a clear shove. I don't like the 2nd barrell on the turn though.

Not a good card to barrel. Board has a 3flush ott. Villain could easily have ace of spades, flush or a straight. The wetter the board the easier villain's call.

I agree that the turn is a bad card to barrel, but on the river don't you think he has too much invested to just give up?

2nd barrel is fine. We pick up equity and he is going to fold some of the 1pr hands he called the flop with.

It's not a clear shove. Just because we 2barreled doesn't mean we need to 3barrel. And just because its an A doesn't mean its a good barrel card.

Like I said, the amount you have "invested" should have 0 bearing on your current action. This is important to recognize.

Save your money, he's not folding.

I think I understand. That's why I like to post, to learn.

Quick question:

When you DO give up ON THE RIVER and are first to open your cards so the winner of the hand can be decided, do you proudly turn over your bluff face up so the table can see or do you say something like "I missed, what do you have?"

Wait for them to show the winner, then just muck your cards face down?

No, I'm barreling turn, giving up on river.

I'll just say king high and if they show me something better I muck. I wouldn't muck until I saw their cards since there is some non-zero chance that our hand is good (although it's very small).

But I always try to make showdown as quick as possible. So if they're the type of person that is going to be a pain and ask to see my hand first I'll just turn it over. Giving up information isn't as bad as people make it out to be. It's just about recognizing you gave up information and adjusting better than your opponents.

And I didn't mean to come off as a dick in my earlier posts. I'm tired.

If you can barrel the turn, but give up on the river, why? The only hand of his that improves on the river is As10

There are other hands with the As in his range. He can have As8, As9, As7, As6. It's entirely possible he even just has the naked As.

And I wouldn't reccomend 3 barreling for the same reason I often won't 3bet at 1/2, they just don't like to fold when they have something. And on this board after he has called twice he often has something.

Villains has too many combos of made hands. All sets, a few combos of 76, 98, K10,As10, not to mention flushes. Your not getting a old dude off any of those hands otr.

Good point to remember when bluffing otr with a 3rd barrel/just a single bet. The wetter the board the more they call.

T8s, T9o, JTo, QTo, KTo and discounted 54s, 75s are all folding with high frequency. ~45-50 combos..

Vs ATo and a discounted 76s, 98s, and flushes were getting in the 15-25 combo range.

Betting 135 into 240 we need a fold ~27% to show a profit. Looks like a clear ship to me.

If you like shipping air into an old dude. Then go right ahead.

Can we agree on something?

This is not a clear ship,right? Its fps shipping on a nit after he has channeled threw our aggression pre, flop and turn on a connected board and a 3 flush.

Sure, Villain sounds like a classic loose-passive, but wouldn't he be c/raising many of these hands on flop or turn? He's unlikely to be holding 76, 98 and sets on the river. However he's not folding A10, A6, A7 or a made flush to a 3rd barrel, obviously, so you're bluffing him off a 10, 6 or 7 only (with which he may have had a broadway spade). I like the idea of firing a 3rd barrel, but Villain's getting nearly 3:1 on a call (140 into 380) and there are more hands that beat you than you beat IMO, so I might check here.

By the way, PokahBlows, are you sure Villains call more when the board is wet? I would think the opposite holds on many occasions. A wet board means (1) there are many hands that beat 1 pair; and (2) Villains often have busted draws. Can you elaborate?

Yeah fine, its not a clear ship.

What I meant to show to the thread is that a bet here only has to fold better a small % of the time to be +EV.

I use to use the framework of 50% as a default, when its all relative to pot/stack size. Similar concept to calling a PSB bet OTR with 34% equity.

I definitely agree with your statement about bluffing. I just don't like to bluff with all my chips in the middle/villains chips in the middle.

I like to bluff when villains range is capped and has chips behind. We don't know where we are at with a connected board and a 3flush with an ace otr. Its just plenty of better spots imo.

Your statement holds true for when villain is the PFR or a dry flop like Qxx,Jxx,Kxx,Axx and the board gets wetter,ex flush/straight hits the river. That's a good time to bluff. But when the villain l/c's flop is connected, turn is a flush and river is an Ace/King. Those are bad times to be bluffing after raising pre, pushing otf and ott. Too many combos weak players will call with otr. Most villain's are never folding(showdown monkey's).

Ok, thanks for elaborating, see your point now. Hero simply has more combos to beat, as both straight and flush get there (I'm still not sure Villain is check-calling turn with these hands though ...).