Setting:
Red Rock Casino
1-2 game

Players:
Villain is a 25 year old, loose-aggressive guy waiting for his seat at the 2-5 game to open ($300 stack).
Hero should be seen as tight-aggressive ($300 stack).


MP limps - Btn raises to $15
Hero is in the Big Blind with A A
Hero raises to $45 - Btn calls ($255 behind)
2 Players
Pot = $93

Flop: 8 7 6
Hero bets $50 - Btn calls ($205 behind)
2 Players
Pot = $193

Turn: 9
Hero ???

Do we agree that my hand is worthless at this point?

Is there anything I could have done differently on the flop?
With an SPR of 2.7, could I have just mindlessly open shoved the flop for a profit?

Please advise.

--CM

i think your line is reasonable so far, although both checking and jamming seem like decent alternatives as far as flop play is concerned. turn i would probably check since there is 4 to a straight on board.

On the turn your hand isn't worthless, you do beat most flush draws still and some single pairs without a draw that called flop. Your hand did go way down in value though. Your goal at that point is too get to showdown cheaply if possible. Check and see what villain does.

As for the flop an outright shove is bad. Stacks are too deep and you may already be beat. On the flop $50 is really a blocking bet, setting a reasonable price and hoping for a good turn card. It is probably your best option against a laggy player who is likely to bet if you check to him no matter what he has. Betting more just commits you to the pot while limiting opponent to hands that beat you and good draws.

It's just one of those situations where no bet is really nice.

The 9 isn't that bad a card. He's not going to have a lot of Tx, 9x and 5x hands in a 3bet pot. Sure TT, 99, and 55 got there, but there is a lot that he can have that you still beat. I'm not auto x/f the turn.

Preflop standard.

Holding the As, we are hating life when he flat calls the flop and the 9 hits on the turn. After the flop action, V's pretty condensed to combo draws, sets, JTs, two pair and maybe a few stray FDs. I wonder if a solver would check this flop holding As. I probably would.

Now we're trying to get to a cheap river if we can. If we didn't have the As, I might suggest jamming the flop rather than trying to fade half the deck ott. We now face the prospect of getting 2-1 on a call if we check turn and V jams. I don't think OHIG often enough to call.

Preflop is too small. Check flop. C/f turn.

I think I go a little bigger on this flop to make the turn decision easier (given a better card).

As played, check/evaluate turn. If he bets, try to get a read -- sometimes that's all you've got. Nothing wrong w/ check/fold on this board, though.

I'd prob c/c this flop, rather than bet.

c/f turn tho

+1

This flop texture hits the BTN range harder than yours. Raising a MP limp, he has all of the sets/2-pr and even straights.

We hold the As, so I like a X/C, then eval turn.

Preflop we should be raising to at least $60.

On the flop, the villain is going to have 77 and 66 combos that we do not. But we have as many T9s combos as they do and all the 87s and 76s combos for two pair as well -- you are three-betting button raises all the way down to 76s, right? -- and we have 88 and all the overpairs. So on balance I think overall nut advantage rests with us, although not by much.

I think we should bet this flop -- as the preflop three-bettor, we should be betting most flops with most of our range -- but we do not need to bet very large. I would bet 1/3 pot here. I rather think that betting more than half-pot, as OP did, is too large. I don't see check-calling as bad. I would prefer it to betting half-pot, but I think I would rather bet 1/3 pot than check.

Holding the As is kind of bad, because the villain has a lot fewer spade draws to chase with, and thus the villain's continuing range is weighted that much more to value hands.

With the 9h turn, our holding is now a marginal made hand, and our goal is to get to showdown as cheaply as we can. The trouble is that we are out of position, and the villain can choose how much we have to pay to get to showdown. I would check and evaluate.

If the turn checks through and a spade falls on the river, if we have what it takes to bluff with an overpair, we have the nut blocker, and a wonderful opportunity to check/jam. I wouldn't do this at 1-3, though; the reason the population underbluffs river checkraises is that the population underfolds to them.

I'm raising larger preflop and check/calling this flop a lot. Then of course checking the 9 turn as well. Vs bad players I'll check/fold the turn. Vs good/competent players I might still check/call the turn and evaluate on river.

As played I think the roughly 1/2 pot bet on the flop should fold out a lot of air (although I know you said he's laggy) which would make me want to check the turn even more.

I think preflop size is ok due to SPR. Normally you polarize and go very large with BB 3-bets but that doesn't need to be the case against 7.5x. Agree with x/c flop and x/fold turn. I'm definitely going to x/c some one pair no draw hands on the turn, but this is is a bad turn bluffcatcher. You don't want to block frontdoor or backdoor flush draws.

What ranges do we expect villain to call with then? At least at the 1-2/3 game I play at $45 is an exceptionally large preflop bet.

Although I play far too timid I think even though people know it's not true there's a desire to cling to the idea that pocket aces = guaranteed win. It's not. Let's try and think by contradiction...what is a worse runout for this hand and action than this board? Heh 789T, KKQQ, and monotone of suits you don't have. And if this is one of the worst runouts for the hand and you're not folding...well then when are you folding?

I've actually thought about this hand for 15-20 minutes as I write this but without an accurate idea of what a LAG will call a $45 bet with it's hard for me to analyze this intelligently. There are some hands you beat but without position I have no idea how to evaluate where you're at.

4x pre is standard 3bet size when oop. We don't want position to have as big an advantage so we want lower sprs. $60 pre is mandatory. Live players call 3bets too wide and raising to 3x makes calling too much less wrong.

Betting flop is fine but is a check in theory

As played turn is a c/f unless he bets small (1/3 pot and under)